Semiconductor Cycles Always End the Same Way

Semiconductor Cycles Always End the Same Way
by Robert Maire on 06-24-2018 at 3:00 pm

It appears the current cycle has rolled over? The reason is memory & could be worsened by trade Figuring out length, depth and impact of the downturn? We had said that AMAT “called” the top of the cycle on their last conference call even though they may not think so. Semiconductor cycles always ends the same way. The… Read More


Chip Equipment where to from here?

Chip Equipment where to from here?
by Robert Maire on 05-20-2018 at 12:00 pm

We may know the top, do we know the bottom? What is the downside in NAND, DRAM, Foundry. Can China help or is risk worse than upside?

It would appear that our concerns in our preview piece prior to the AMAT call came true as the stock now has a “4” handle, NAND is in question and display is down.

However its not like business … Read More


AMAT has OK Q2 but Q3 flat to down

AMAT has OK Q2 but Q3 flat to down
by Robert Maire on 05-20-2018 at 7:00 am

“Puts & Takes” “Reduced NAND Expectations” 2019 to be down from 2018. Applied Materials reported a good quarter coming in at $1.22 EPS and $4.567B in revenues versus street of $1.14 and $4.45B.

However if we back out the buy back of 4% it would have been around $1.17 so a slight beat. Guidance was for … Read More


Choosing the lesser of 2 evils EUV vs Multi Patterning!

Choosing the lesser of 2 evils EUV vs Multi Patterning!
by Robert Maire on 11-03-2017 at 12:00 pm

For Halloween this week we thought it would be appropriate to talk about things that strike fear into the hearts of semiconductor makers and process engineers toiling away in fabs. Do I want to do multi-patterning with the huge increase in complexity, number of steps, masks and tools or do I want to do EUV with unproven tools, unproven… Read More


Do investors understand the new memory paradigm?

Do investors understand the new memory paradigm?
by Robert Maire on 10-11-2017 at 7:00 am

Micron put up a great quarter beating both quarterly expectations and guidance. Even though the stock was up 8% and we still think it has a long way to go as investors have not fully embraced the upside ahead in the memory market.… Read More


Samsung Sloppy Sailor Spending Spree!

Samsung Sloppy Sailor Spending Spree!
by Robert Maire on 07-31-2017 at 12:00 pm

Last week, TEL (which is the Japanese equivalent to AMAT & LRCX) reported a June quarter which saw revenues drop to 236B Yen from March’s 261B Yen and saw earnings drop from March’s 47B Yen to June’s 41B Yen, a respective 9.3% decrease and a 12.8% decrease in earnings.

We don’t think this is attributable… Read More


Semicap Thoughts: ASML AMAT INTEL SAMSUNG TSMC MICRON

Semicap Thoughts: ASML AMAT INTEL SAMSUNG TSMC MICRON
by Robert Maire on 07-27-2017 at 12:00 pm

ASML reported results in line and slightly ahead of expectations which helped push ASML and the other semicap stocks back to their original valuations prior to the two step pull back that lasted about a month. We are now back to relatively high, record valuations not seen or ever seen previously (at least for a long time) by many companies.… Read More


The post election Semicap bubble just burst in one day

The post election Semicap bubble just burst in one day
by Robert Maire on 12-04-2016 at 12:00 pm

Back to a more normal reality… Market gets”De-Fanged”… Where to from here? The “Icarus” Effect… Much of the market, and especially Tech & “FANG” (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix & Google) stocks gave back most all of their post election day gains in one session.Read More


AMAT LRCX and EUV Economics

AMAT LRCX and EUV Economics
by Robert Maire on 11-23-2016 at 7:00 am

Lam & Applied talked about “sustainable” growth Both expect share gains & growth in a flattish market. We examine the “new, lower, cyclicality”. Although Applied and Lam are fierce competitors , coming at things from different directions, they sounded awfully similar last week.
Read More