Newsflash Chip Equip Blockade back on!

Newsflash Chip Equip Blockade back on!
by Robert Maire on 03-29-2020 at 2:00 pm

US China Blockade


Blocking chip sales to Huawei back on front burner
Covid19 & China Trade are equally bad
Long lived Uncertainty could “plague” industry sales going forward
Political Predictability worse than Disease Predictability

Reuters broke a story today that the proposed licensing of chip equipment to prevent “bad… Read More


Minimal Corona Impact on Chip Equipment Stocks

Minimal Corona Impact on Chip Equipment Stocks
by Robert Maire on 02-16-2020 at 6:00 am

Coronavirus Light SemiWiki

Very solid quarter driven by foundry/logic
AMAT reported a very solid quarter, beating the top end of guidance with foundry and logic being the primary drivers of spend. Revenues were $4.16B and EPS of $0.98 non-GAAP versus street of $4.11B and $0.93 EPS.

Guide not too wide… – $300M “Corona Cut”
More importantly,… Read More


ASML EUV China Chip Equip Risk

ASML EUV China Chip Equip Risk
by Robert Maire on 01-10-2020 at 10:00 am

ASML China EUV
  • Is ASML first clandestine shot in US war on China chips?
  • Will the action extend further to other chip equip cos?
  • China chip cold conflict warming up?

It would appear from a Reuters report yesterday that a behind the scenes “cold war” between the US and China in the chip business has just been exposed and has the potential… Read More


ASML Will Take Semiconductor Equipment Lead from Applied Materials in 2019

ASML Will Take Semiconductor Equipment Lead from Applied Materials in 2019
by Robert Castellano on 12-02-2019 at 10:00 am

For the first time since 1990, Applied Materials is poised to lose its lead in the semiconductor equipment market, according to my recently published report “The Global Semiconductor Equipment: Markets, Market Shares, Market Forecasts.

Applied Materials, which has been losing market share in the wafer front end (WFE) equipment… Read More


AMAT last to confirm foundry led recovery

AMAT last to confirm foundry led recovery
by Robert Maire on 11-18-2019 at 6:00 am

Good end to a weak fiscal year- and end to down cycle
As expected and well telegraphed by TSMC, LRCX, ASML & KLAC, AMAT put up a good quarter and guide as the last to report that the industry has turned the corner on the down cycle. While not a rip roaring recovery, its better to return to growth than continue a downward trend.

Results… Read More


Great, early signs of a recovery in logic, not memory

Great, early signs of a recovery in logic, not memory
by Robert Maire on 07-21-2019 at 12:00 pm

A “Logic Lead” recovery confirmed- Memory still mired, 3400C = “Third times a charm”. EUV finally accelerates as all ducks now in a row.

ASML posted a good quarter with great orders and capped off with a strong outlook for the current quarter.  Logic demand is sparking a recovery while memory remains essentially… Read More


Opening a new front in multi faceted trade war

Opening a new front in multi faceted trade war
by Robert Maire on 05-30-2019 at 5:00 am

We had warned in our May 10th note about the rare earth element risk.  It is one of the few remaining leverage points that China has left that has a potentially strong impact on the US much similar to the US’s impact on Huawei and perhaps even worse. Cutting the US off from rare earth elements is clearly worse than cutting Huawei
Read More

Chip Equip Trade War Collateral Damage

Chip Equip Trade War Collateral Damage
by Robert Maire on 05-13-2019 at 7:00 am

We have been very vocal and perhaps the first to warn of the risks to the semiconductor and semiconductor equipment industry from the China trade war with the US. It seems that the war is now fully upon us with the imposition of 25% tariffs by the US and promised retribution by China. The semiconductor industry is at the leading edge … Read More


Bottom of a Semiconductor Canoe Cycle Shape

Bottom of a Semiconductor Canoe Cycle Shape
by Robert Maire on 05-09-2019 at 12:00 pm

Nice numbers despite the cycle bottom
KLA put up EPS of $1.80 versus street of $1.67 on revenues of $1.097B versus street of $1.08B. However guidance was weaker than the street was hoping for with a range of $1.21B to $1.29B in revenues generating between $1.55 and $1.85 in non GAAP EPS. This is compared to current street estimates … Read More


Semiconductor Equipment Revenues To Drop 17% In 2019 On 29% Capex Spend Cuts

Semiconductor Equipment Revenues To Drop 17% In 2019 On 29% Capex Spend Cuts
by Robert Castellano on 04-25-2019 at 7:00 am

The semiconductor equipment market grew 37.3% in 2017 on the heels of capex spend by memory companies in order to increase bit capacity and move to more sophisticated products with smaller nanometer dimensions. Unfortunately these companies overspent resulting in excessive oversupply of memory chips. As memory prices started… Read More