– High NA EUV’s coming out party – “Dawn” of the Angstrom Era
– Well attended, positive vibes, not much new but good progress
– Concerns about Samsung slowing spend while Intel accelerates
– KLA reticle inspection quandary – Risky business in China
Tag: amat
AMAT – Flattish QTR Flattish Guide – Improving 2024 – Memory and Logic up, ICAPs Down
– AMAT slightly better than expected, flat & guides flat but > expected
– Expects better 2024- Systems flat, service up, display down
– China risk remains high at 45%- $200M Sculpta expected in 2024
– HBM 5% of industry but not a lot of tool sales- but high growth
Still bumping along with flattish … Read More
KLAC- OK Quarter & flat guide- Hopefully 2025 recovery- Big China % & Backlog
– KLAC reported an OK QTR & flat guide-waiting for 2025 recovery?
– China exposure remains both risk & savior & big in backlog
– Wafer inspect strong- Patterning on long slide- PCB biz for sale
– Some bright spots but memory still weak- Foundry/Logic OK
Bumping along the bottom of the cycle
… Read MoreAMAT- Facing Criminal Charges for China Exports – Overshadows OK Quarter
– News that AMAT facing criminal charges for violating China sanctions
– Sounds like Ion implant tools sent to SMIC in China via South Korea
– Criminal probe goes back to shipments starting in 2021 & 2022
– Overshadows an otherwise OK quarter and outlook
Reuters broke the news on the day of earnings
… Read MoreThe Coming China Chipocalypse – Trade Sanctions Backfire – Chips versus Equipment
- China Chip Sanctions have had opposite of intended effect
- Helps AMAT, LRCX, KLAC & TEL- Hurts Micron and GloFo
- Tsunami of Chinese capacity will hurt memory & 2nd tier chip makers
- The probability of a much longer chip downcycle is increasing
China is cornering the market on Semiconductor equipment
Quarterly reports from… Read More
SPIE- EUV & Photomask conference- Anticipating High NA- Mask Size Matters- China
– SPIE EUV & Photomask conference well attended with great talks
– Chip industry focused on next gen High NA EUV & what it impacts
– Do big chips=big masks? Another Actinic tool?
– AI & chip tools, a game changer- China pre-empting more sanctions
The SPIE EUV & Photomask conference in Monterey
… Read MoreSEMICON West 2023 Summary – No recovery in sight – Next Year?
-SEMICON well attended but bouncing along the biz bottom
-Recovery seems at least a year away with memory even more
-AI creates hope but not impactful- Disconnect tween stocks & reality
-AMAT me too platform- Back end benefits from chiplets
SEMICON busy but subdued
SEMICON is certainly back to pre-covid levels or perhaps better.… Read More
AMAT- Trailing Edge & China Almost Offset Floundering Foundry & Missing Memory
-AMAT reported inline resulted helped by trailing edge & China
-Memory remains at very low levels- Foundry remains uninspiring
-China seems to be buying anything they are allowed to buy
-The recovery is too far out & unknown to handicap
Quarter was OK and Guidance also OK
Revenue was $6.63B and EPS of $1.86 versus reduced… Read More
Report from SPIE- EUV’s next 15 years- AMAT “Sculpta” braggadocio rollout
-We attended the SPIE lithography Conference in San Jose
-No significant news or announcements on EUV
-Focus on 500WPM target and High & Hyper NA rollout
-AMAT overblown Sculpta-Not exactly what its cracked up to be
SPIE Lithography 2023
We have been attending SPIE for many years now and are happy to see a return to pre Covid levels… Read More
AMAT- Flat is better than down-Trailing tool strength offsets memory- backlog up
-Strength in trailing tools offsets weak memory resulting in flat
-Order book very volatile but backlog surprisingly still grew
-Trailing edge VS Leading edge = 50/50 – Foundry/logic over 2/3
-Not nearly as bad as Lam but not as good as ASML
AMAT posts good quarter & guide – Flat for three quarters
Applied Materials… Read More