In 1825, Benjamin Gompertz proposed a mathematical model for time series that looks like an “S-curve”.1 Mathematically it is a double exponential (Figure 1) where y=a(exp(b(exp(-ct)))) where t is time and a, b and c are adjustable coefficients that modulate the steepness of the S-Curve. The Gompertz Curve has been used for a … Read More
Chapter 3 – Moore’s Law is Unconstitutional!
(Adapted from a presentation first given under this title in 1989 and subsequently expanded in presentations over a period of nearly thirty years)
In 1965, Gordon Moore, then R&D Manager for Fairchild Semiconductor, published a paper in “Electronics” magazine predicting the trend for semiconductors in the next ten years. … Read More
Chapter 2 – Constants of the Semiconductor Industry
In the mid 1980’s, Tommy George, then President of Motorola’s Semiconductor Sector, pointed out to me that the semiconductor revenue per unit area had been a constant throughout the history of the industry including the period when germanium transistors made up a large share of semiconductor revenue. I began tracking the numbers… Read More
Chapter 1 – Predicting Trends in the Semiconductor Industry
Figure 1 is the most basic of all the predictable parameters of the semiconductor industry, even more so than Moore’s Law. It is the learning curve for the transistor. Since 1954, the revenue per transistor (and presumably the cost per transistor, if we had the data from the manufacturers) has followed a highly predictable learning… Read More
The Implications of the Rise of AI/ML in the Cloud
Recently, Daniel Nenni blogged on the presentation Wally Rhines gave at #56th DAC. Daniel provided a great summary, but I want to dive into a portion of the presentation in more detail. I love Wally’s presentations, but sometimes you cannot absorb the wealth of information he provides when you initially see it. It’s… Read More
From Wild West to Modern Life the Semiconductor Evolution
What started as blogs, or vignettes as Wally calls them, posted on SemiWiki is now a free PDF eBook. The journey starts with his school days at Stanford through 20+ years at TI and 24+ years at Mentor Graphics. Wally has traveled millions of miles meeting with every customer imaginable while presenting hundreds of different keynotes… Read More
Basic Techniques for Managing EDA Business
The “20 Questions with Wally Rhines” series finale
During the period from 1997, I had the privilege to work with Greg Hinckley, a superb “out of the box” thinker and excellent operational manager. We had such a common view of the world that we almost always agreed upon the best approach to problems and opportunities … Read More
Carl Icahn Activist Activities
The “20 Questions with Wally Rhines” series continues
Carl Icahn is a remarkably charming person. You might expect him to be a mean, aggressive adversary but he actually jokes about his foibles, tells stories about interesting people and gently poses questions. “I thought Jerry Yang just didn’t want to sell his Yahoo… Read More
Honey I Shrunk the EDA TAM
The “20 Questions with Wally Rhines” series continues
Throughout the history of the EDA industry, pricing models have caused discontinuities in the way the industry operates. For a variety of competitive reasons, individual companies have developed ways to change the pricing model in an attempt to secure competitive… Read More
EDA Cost and Pricing
This is the nineteenth in the series of “20 Questions with Wally Rhines”
When I moved from the semiconductor industry to Mentor, I expected most of my technology and business experience to apply similarly in EDA software. To some extent, that was correct. But there was a fundamental difference that required a change… Read More
A Quick Tour Through Prompt Engineering as it Might Apply to Debug