My wife and I have traveled to Switzerland on vacation and marveled at the natural beauty of the mountains, efficient train system, tasty chocolate, and wonderful foods. I only wished that our American dollar bought more in Swiss currency than it did. Recently I discovered a high-tech IC design company called Microdul that designs mixed-signal chips with ultra low-power specs in product areas like:
NFCis all over the news. Payments from your phone, yeah! I was wondering why this is a big deal, and why it has taken so long to gain momentum. I was issued a RFID enabled employee badge (JavaCard) 10 years ago while working at Sun. RFID is now so prevalent that Walmart attaches RFID tags to clothes. I spent an hour wading around the internet to gain a better understanding and thought I’d share a quick summary.
Continue reading “NFC, Why is this a big deal?”
For the next few days Atrenta is running a series of 30 minute live webinars to discuss the new solutions and approaches that are required to improve the way SoC designs are created and modified.
The webinars are at the following times:
In this 30 minute webinar they will explore innovative solutions to these challenges and discuss how solutions based on using Atrenta’s SpyGlass® and GenSys™ product families work on a real design example. Atrenta will demonstrate how to boost productivity and design efficiency by taking an existing tablet design and transforming it within minutes to create a next-generation tablet that features front and rear cameras as well as an HDMI interface.
Also of interest are two recorded webinars:
To sign up for any of these webinars go here.
Chips, packages and circuit boards (systems, hence CPS) used to be three separate domains with their own tools that barely interacted at all. If you were lucky, reassigning a pin on a package wouldn’t have to be done manually in all 3 places. But now, from a signal integrity, noise, power point of view these three domains must be analyzed as a single system where everything interacts with everything else.
At DesignCon in February, Apache is running two workshops on these issues. Both are on Wednesday February 1st.
The first workshop, on CPS for Cost-down and Reliabilityis from 10.15 to 12.15. Apache along with featured speakers Dr Mondira Pant of Intel and Dr Amit Argawal of Cisco will share their insights and expertise in the area of chip-package-system (CPS) convergence and will discuss various aspects of analysis methodologies in terms of modeling, extraction and simulation. Topics will include comprehensive global power delivery optimization at the chip, package and board levels, system-level signal integrity analysis, along with case studies and real design examples.
The second workshop, on CPS for 3D-IC and Power-Thermal-Mechanical-Electrical Applications is from 2-4pm. 3D stacked die and 2.5D Silicon Interposer chip designs with through-silicon vias (TSVs) have emerged as upcoming technologies, enabling designers to meet the performance, power, and form factor demands of today’s ICs. However, 3D-IC designers face unique challenges such as thermal-induced EM and reliability issues, along with place and route congestion due to TSV insertion. Apache and featured speakers Dr Tim Hollis of Micron, Ivor Barber from LSI and Dr Simon Burke of Xilinx will examine the various modeling and simulation challenges in 3D-IC design. Methodologies for the analysis of power delivery network, chip-to-chip communication, and thermal integrity will be covered using real case studies on designs.
More details here including how to get 20% off your DesignCon conference pass or get a free exhibit pass (Apache is at booth 214).
The International Consumer Electronics Show (CES) last week in Las Vegas, Nevada was the largest in history, with over 3,100 exhibitors and over 153,000 attendees – over 20% international. Hopefully this was a good sign of a solid recovery in the electronics and semiconductor industries. The major Japanese and Korean consumer electronics companies had huge display areas: Sony, Samsung, Toshiba, LG, Panasonic, and Sharp. Emerging Chinese company Haier also had a large display. A few semiconductor companies put up large booths including Intel, Qualcomm, Broadcom, Marvell and Silicon Image. Several other semiconductor companies had smaller booths or meeting rooms.
At the back of the South Hall were several tiny booths which reminded me of the Texas State Fair – not the food booths where they fry anything that doesn’t move, but the booths with all sorts of gizmos designed to fill needs you did not know you had. One CES booth had electronic gadgets to sooth your various aches and pains. Another booth had models in bikinis. (Maybe they thought it was a boat show?)
The products on the display floors included newer versions of current devices: large screen LCD and 3D televisions, smartphones, media tablets, ultrabook PCs, digital cameras, etc. Some advanced products which are year or two away from introduction included glasses-free 3D TVs and TVs with over 4 times the resolution of HDTV. Many interesting products for niche application included a GPS locator for dogs and head mounted video cameras for extreme sports junkies.
The key question is: What devices will drive growth in consumer electronics and semiconductors in 2012?
In the opening keynote, Qualcomm CEO Dr. Paul Jacobs said emerging countries will drive growth in smartphones since mobile is the only way to connect to the internet in many countries. CNET’s session proposed the Next Big Thing in consumer electronics will be the ecosystem – getting various devices to work together simply and effectively.
The Consumer Electronics Association – which puts on the CES– projects three categories will drive growth in 2012 (as measured in U.S.dollars). Home IT and Security growth of 5.6% in 2012 will be driven by media tablets, which were the key driver in 2011. In-vehicle Entertainment is the only category expected to show significant growth acceleration in 2012, 11.9%versus 7.4% in 2011, driven by internet radio and streaming audio. Portable communication growth of 14.3% in 2012 will be primarily from smartphones.Overall consumer electronics growth in 2012 is forecast at 3.7%, less than half of the 7.9% growth in 2011.
DIGITIMES Research of Taiwan projects smartphone unit growth of about 40% in 2012 to over 650 million units, following growth around 60% in 2010 and 2011. Media tablet shipments are forecast to grow 60% in 2012 to over 95 million units.
Over 20,000 new products were introduced at CES, a sign that innovation in the industry is alive and well. Many of these products are new and improved versions of existing products. Others represent new product categories which could drive new niche applications or potentially become major products in the next few years. However for 2012, growth will likely be driven by the same products which have driven growth for the last couple of years.
Thanks to Paul, who has shared EDAC resultsfor Q3 2011, we can see that Silicon IP has definitely passed CAE revenue! It does not appears clearly ($410 million for IP, 566.7 for CAE), but when you consider that ARM, among many other IP vendors, is not part of EDAC, it’s easy to see that SIP revenue is higher than CAE (ARM revenue for 2010 were $632 million; just add $158 million to $410 and you are done).
In fact, the important figure in this report is the 37.4% yearly growth rate.
That reminds me the presentation made during IP-SoC 2010, by a respected analyst firm, showing a forecasted growth for Design IP (or SIP, it’s the same) in the years 2011 to 2014 as follow:
My reaction was to post this blogin Semiwiki as I knew that this figures were far too low. When I say “I knew”, I mean some common sense had driven me to think about all the factors pushing for a higher growth rate. Let’s see the parameters:
So, you think: “one analyst has been wrong, that is not a casus belli!” I totally disagree! That’s a big deal! Why? Just have a look at what could be a virtuous circle:
Analyst Forecast of a certain market –> Financial decision makers identify this market to be fast growing –> Funding are easier to find to develop a company addressing a fast growing market
You will agree that, if analyst are making a 600% error (6% forecasted for actual being 37.4%) the virtuous circle is biased, and even more, is becoming a vicious circle! When analyst do not identify a high growth market, the decision makers, or VC, will not inject money at a place where they should do it. As an example, take the fabless market: since everybody (at least the MBAed) is talking about $50 million to invest to develop a SoC, which is true, but only true for 40nm or below, the fabless can’t get VC attention. But, there are numerous chips (mixed-signal, PMIC, niche ASSP and so on) which could be developed using 130nm or 90nm, at a few $ million cost, and could generate decent profit. Because an analyst brain is small (by definition), the guy will automatically associate Fabless with $50-100 million development cost, and pass! I am severe, as you have a better chance to find a more cleaver analyst when the company is built around people who have a real industry experience before joining! Like ABI research, for example (I am too modest to name IPNEST).
By the way, we had another example of this vicious circle last week-end: France and other European countries have lost their AAArank, after USA last summer. Thanks to analysts, the same guys who have assigned AAA to junk bonds in 2007, leading to the crisis in 2008-2009 and leading later the central bank in USA, to loan $1,200 billion at 0.01% to the banks, to save them from bankruptcy (the same has also occurred in Europe). The degradation of the AAA has been the way analyst and bankers have thanked the federal state (USA) or the state (France) for their loan. I tell you, analyst is the best job to do (if you plan to destroy the realeconomy)!
From Eric Esteve– IPNEST(Market analysis and Consulting – IP focus)
Looking at the ARM Top Ten customers list (for 2010) brings useful information about the volumes production generated by the chip makers involved in the wireless handset segment. Revenue for an ARM licensee comes from upfront license and royalties. Upfront license are in the few $ million range (max), when the below listed contribution from ARM’ customers are in few dozen of million $ (4% of $631M makes $25M). We can reasonably guess that the contributions are made at more than 90% by royalties. Another estimate is to make the assumption that these are mostly generated in the wireless handset segment. As a matter of confirmation, you can search for Atmel or NXP in this list (both are selling ARM based micros, but are not covering the wireless handset). You don’t see them? That’s normal; ARM revenue in wireless handset is (still) the most important share, even if the company desires to increase their position in the embedded market (22 billion chips in 2010). According with ARM annual report for 2010:
As the shipments of mobile phone handset were 1,250 million in 2010, more than three billion ARM processors (not chips) have been shipped in the wireless handset segment. This is consistent with the 62% reported by ARM for unit shipment in the mobile segment. See below ARM’ solution for smartphone:
In first approximation, ARM customer list ranked by contribution should gives good information about the smartphone and wireless handset market. It also provides some big surprise!
Let’s address the surprise first. Intel was ARM largest customer in 2010! As I don’t think Intel is using ARM core to address the wireless handset, and because Intel/Infineon deal is dated August, 30[SUP]th[/SUP] 2010 (too late to have an impact; anyway Infineon is listed), these royalties should come from another segment. If anybody knows which this segment is, please let me know!
The number 2 customers, ex-aequo, are TSMC and Samsung. TSMC result is not a real surprise, as the company is undisputed foundry leader. In fact, I am surprised not to see TSMC share being higher. My guess is that the chip makers involved in wireless handset tend to deal directly with ARM. Qualcomm (fabless) and Apple appearance in the list tends to confirm this. Samsung ranking is more interesting. This is not the foundry division, processing Apples A4 chips, which brings this revenue level: Apple is ranked as a contributor. No, this is Samsung the chip maker, challenging Intel, who generates this high level of royalties, coming from wireless handset, set-top-box, DVD and Blue-Ray players and probably more segments. See below ARM’ solution for STB:
Let’s have a look at the wireless handset strong players now: TI, ZTE, ST, Broadcom, Infineon, Qualcomm, NEC and Apple. Even if some of them are also playing in the consumer electronic field, marketing SoC for Set-Top-Box or DVD players/recorders (NEC, Qualcomm, Broadcom, ST), no doubt that the most important part of their contribution is coming from wireless handset. These are the results for 2010, at that time the Media Tablet shipments were marginal (in the dozens of million units, to be compared with the 1.25 billion handset shipments). Most of the contributors are playing in the wireless segment: nine out of thirteen companies and we can guess that the contributions from UMC and TSMC are generated by some chips targeting this segment as well.
Within wireless handset segment, the contributions coming from the application processor targeting the smartphone are certainly very high: this is a 300 (million) x $25 (Apps Proc. ASP) = $7.5 billion market. I don’t know the level of royalties paid by the chip makers, but a 2% level would generate $150 million contribution (or almost 25% of ARM revenues in 2010). As we are expecting a 45% growth rate in 2011, with 440 million smartphone shipment, even if ASP decrease to $20, that makes a $9 billion market… and a $180 million royalty contribution to ARM.
But, the real surprise is the contribution coming from Intel, AMD and Lenovo. We know that this is not the main PC processor, but these companies all target in priority the PC segment, so where are these ARM processor used? It may be used in the hard disk drive segment (see above picture), as ARM is claiming 85% penetration in this market? Any hint is welcome!
From Eric Esteve– IPNEST
The Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas is the premier electronics gadget exposition, a window into what we will be spending our hard earned money on next Christmas. Personally, I go to CES every year to try and guess what new innovative technology will drive future semiconductor design and manufacturing. Last year I bet on tablets and lost. This year there was really nothing to bet on.
You can find my CES 2012 trip report with pictures HERE. Post a CES related comment on my trip report thread and qualify to win an iPad2. The winner will be chosen one week from today. I use my iPad2 every day, and you will too, believe it!
The first smartphone was introduced in 1992, I bought my first Blackberry in 2003, but it wasn’t until 2007 when the first Apple iPhone was launched that smartphones really started to drive the semiconductor industry. Tablets were all the CES rage last year, even I got caught up in the frenzy and bought two dozen iPad2s as gifts from SemiWiki. Unfortunately, other than the iPad2 and Kindle Fire, all other tablets suffered a quick and expensive death.Tablet + Cloud = Success!
The most interesting smartphone I saw this year was the Nokia Lumia 900 Windows phone. I still do not trust Google/Android as a viable alternative to iOS so I hope Microsoft is serious about the mobile market. Congratulations to Nokia for taking the Windows phone challenge, probably the best decision I have seen them make in years. The last thing we need is more Android derivatives.
I finally replaced my iPod and Blackberry with an iPhone 4s last year. One thing I was looking for at CES was a replacement for my iPhone and iPad2 which I found in the Samsung Galaxy Note. I was actually allowed to hold one and it was incredibly light! No heavier than my iPhone 4s. Here is an Engadget review of it for more detailed information. Unfortunately it’s from Samsung and I do not buy Samsung products willingly. In fact, Samsung was fined again for price fixing TVs with LG. Dumping, price fixing, IP theft, I will have none of that in my house.
TV’s were big this year, having spent much of my time in the Samsung booth trying to figure out what an OLED (organic light emitting diode) TV is. A few years back I saw plasma TVs at CES and went out and bought a 63” Fujitsu plasma for around $8,000. Other than consuming way too much power it still gives my family a brilliant picture. OLED TV is a likely replacement for my Plasma but probably not until my Fuji dies and assuming it can scale to 60” without costing $8,000. And the so called smart TVs were actually pretty dumb, I’ll wait for Apple Siri TV. 3D TV is still haunting CES but is still cursed with those ugly glasses and big price tag.
The only other thing that caught my consumer eye was the Ultrabooks. I seriously considered buying a MacBook Air last year to replace my aging laptop but ended up with a Dell XPS. I did not want to deal with the software differences between Windows and Mac OS. I got the 8 hour battery and really enjoy being untethered when I travel or I’m at home. The downside is that it weighs too much for my aging shoulder. If all goes well, my family will get Ultrabooks for Christmas!
Unfortunately, the above mentioned products are upgrades to existing markets versus a new product market like the iPhone or iPad. The show was huge and chaotic so let me know what I missed in the comment section.
Post Comments HERE for a chance at an iPad2!
Note that there are several DAC deadlines coming up in the next couple of weeks.
The deadline for user track submissions is January 17th (next Tuesday). Submission requires an extended abstract. See here for details.
The deadline for DAC workshops is January 19th (next Thursday). A proposal is required. See here for details.
The deadline for the P.O. Pistilli Scholarship is February 1st. There is an application form to be filled in. See here for details.
As always, the DAC website is at dac.com and the DAC blog is at blog.dac.com where, if you don’t get your fill of my writing here, you can get even more of it.
Just because it seems that the likes given to: Interface Protocols, USB3, HDMI, MIPI… the winner and losers in 2011 were numerous, I decided to count it.
Twenty-four likes received, in 11 Linkedin groups (see below), that’s good! Very goos! Thanks to all of you… And most probably thanks to IPNESTfor the quality of the data.
If you did not read this post, it maybe the right time to do it! You will find many, many useful information about USB 3.0, HDMI, DisplayPort, MIPI and more
Eric Estevefrom IPNEST
And now the list:
Semiconductor Wiki Project (www.SemiWiki.com )
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Chuck Dube • Any thoughts on wireless HDMI (or whatever it’s called). Basically, the 60Ghz or so wireless interface between displays and video equipment. It seems 802.11ac? may be a contender.
Franz Dugand • The soon to be released 802.11ac may be the leading technology for wireless video streaming in the coming years. It has new features tailored for video streaming, and is using 5GHz band, so less crowded than 2.4GHz, and less expensive/challenging than 60GHz. Backward compatible with 802.11n, 802.11ac will probably be very popular in TV, STB and DVD players, those equipment being more and more connected to the internet.
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