What I’m really describing here is an over-simplified backend flow for physical design of low power ICs with multiple voltage domains. If you haven’t ventured into this territory yet, this will hopefully give you some food for thought. Here are the basic steps:
Continue reading “How to Multi-Voltage IC Design in 10 Easy Steps”
So, Why Not Just Write Better Rules?
In my submission about TSMC making some DFM analysis steps mandatory at 45nm (see “TSMC’s DFM Announcement”), I ended with a question about why the foundries can’t just write better design rules (and rule decks) to make sure all designs yield well. Here’s my take on this complicated question.
Continue reading “So, Why Not Just Write Better Rules?”
TSMC’s DFM Announcement
If you are a TSMC customer, no doubt you have heard TSMC is requiring lithography and planarity analysis for all 45nm designs. Their website says customers can either run it themselves, or contract TSMC services to do it. The most cost-effective way would be for the customers to run it themselves, but some might not have the resources to do that. Of course, by the time you pay TSMC to do it 3 or 4 times, you could have bought some tools and run it yourself. That’s good for Mentor and other EDA vendors, right? Probably, but there has to be more to it than that.
Continue reading “TSMC’s DFM Announcement”
So, Why Not Just Write Better Rules?
In my submission about TSMC making some DFM analysis steps mandatory at 45nm (see “TSMC’s DFM Announcement”), I ended with a question about why the foundries can’t just write better design rules (and rule decks) to make sure all designs yield well. Here’s my take on this complicated question.
Continue reading “So, Why Not Just Write Better Rules?”
TSMC’s DFM Announcement
If you are a TSMC customer, no doubt you have heard TSMC is requiring lithography and planarity analysis for all 45nm designs. Their website says customers can either run it themselves, or contract TSMC services to do it. The most cost-effective way would be for the customers to run it themselves, but some might not have the resources to do that. Of course, by the time you pay TSMC to do it 3 or 4 times, you could have bought some tools and run it yourself. That’s good for Mentor and other EDA vendors, right? Probably, but there has to be more to it than that.
Continue reading “TSMC’s DFM Announcement”
Effects of Inception
I finally got to watch the critically acclaimed sci-fi movie “Inception” last weekend and life has not been the same since. Without giving away too much detail for the benefit of those who have not watched it yet, the main plot involves dreams within dreams within dreams – three levels to be precise—to “incept” an idea into someone’s subconscious mind. Are you still with me? Never mind, the first thing that came to my mind when I was exposed to the concept of dreams within dreams was – nested domains in multi-voltage (MV) designs. Blame the nerd gene for triggering this reaction, but the truth remains.
Continue reading “Effects of Inception”
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation 2010
In celebrating the 10th anniversary of SMIC, CEO David Wang ushers in a new era of China semiconductor manufacturing with triumphs versus promises. By triumphs David means profits, which SMIC saw for the first time in Q2 2010. The future looks even brighter for SMIC as the China semiconductor demand versus supply gap is an estimated $30B versus $3B.
SMIC is definitely positioned for growth with 10k+ people and $1.5B in 2010 revenue versus $1B in 2009. 2010 has been a banner year for the foundry industry with close to $30B in total revenues, which is approximately 10% of the $300B in total semiconductor revenue. Outsourcing from semiconductor IDM’s (fab-light strategy) continues to push foundry growth as well as mobile internet devices and emerging markets in China, India, and South America. It is interesting to note that Cadence CEO Lip-Bu Tan is on the SMIC board of directors. Lip-Bu’s Walden Venture Fund is heavily invested in the China fabless semiconductor market and he can spell cloud computing, so expect a strong move from Cadence in China.
Other interesting datapoints:
2010 Numbers
Electronics $1.36T +12%
Semi $300B +31.5%
EDA $5B +0%
CAPS $41.8B +90%
Fab Equip $28B +120%
SMIC Revenue
60% USA
30% China
10% Taiwan, UK, Israel, Korea
20% 90nm and below
Capacity Expansion Plans
8” 150k per month
12” 130/90nm 20k
12” 65/55nm 60k
12” 45/40nm 50k
12” 32/28nm 60k
Aart De Geus was the keynote speaker with an updated version of his: Systemic Collaboration: The New Smart Skill presentation. This presentation is looking more and more like an EDA360 pitch! I actually experienced déjà vu from conversations with EDA360 Chief Anarchist John Bruggeman!
One of Aart’s slides highlighted the System, SoC, and Silicon Realization companies Synopsys had acquired over the years, an impressive list for sure. In fact, Synopsys dedicates 20%+ of revenue on M&A activity (inoraganic growth) versus 30%+ on R&D (organic growth). Unfortunately the Synopsys “Realization” strategy is FPGA based which will never work for bleeding edge semiconductor products that account for 90% of the silicon shipped in a year. The Cadence EDA360 vision is simulation/emulation based which is much better suited for “Realization”. Correct me if I’m wrong here Synopsys fans, this is just my impression/opinion.
The importance of IP re-use was also mentioned in regards to the increasing quality (yield) and time to market pressure the semiconductor industry faces. Better IP equals better yield, better yield equals time to market and better margins. As Aart says, the semiconductor design ecosystem is systemic. The results are not a SUM but a PRODUCT. If anywhere in the semiconductor design and manufacturing equation there is a zero, the results will be a bad wafer, die, chip, or electronic device, which supports the increasing importance of IP re-use.
I’m a Semiconductor IP person by experience and have blogged about it many times, and will do it again next week. Soft and hard IP cores continue to have a profound impact on SoC design. The trend I see is more soft IP versus hard, which presents a different type of qualification and integration challenge, but more on that next week.
TSMC OIP Conference 2010 Critique!
Okay, this is more of a, “What I would do if I was TSMC” than a critique, but I needed a one word descriptor for the title. This was the third TSMC OIP Conference and I would guess about 250 people attended. This was the first time I have seen TSMC in “reactive” mode versus “proactive” leadership mode, so I was a bit disappointed. TSMC is THE industry leader and should NOT be looking in the rear view mirror at competitors that are barely visible.
The semiconductor landscape has dramatically changed during the contraction phase of the current business cycle. The strong got stronger by acquisition and aggressive business practices, and the rest of the fabless semiconductor companies either were: acquired, got smaller, or became IP companies. So TSMC, being a customer driven company, must also change strategies and the Open Innovation Platform IS the delivery system for that change.
The Pareto principle (also known as the 80-20 rule or the law of the vital few) states that, for many events, roughly 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes. For semiconductors this is definitely the case. In fact, as a result of the recent economic chaos and consolidations I would guess that 90% of the silicon is shipped by 10% of the companies.
The foundry strategy for the top semiconductor companies is three-fold: Early Access, Capacity, and Wafer Pricing. TSMC is working hard on capacity and wafer pricing 24/7, believe it! There is no doubt in my mind that TSMC will continue to be the capacity and margin leader for 40nm, 28nm, and 20nm, which will keep the top foundry customers engaged. Early access however is a continuing challenge. For example, Design Rule Manuals (DRMS) are still in PDF format, 1,300+ pages long, and rapidly changing. Some of the rules are so complicated they are impossible to describe, and even harder to code and communicate, even within the foundry teams. This should be the focus of the TSMC OIP for the top semiconductor companies, a more automated and simplified information exchange, one that uses vendor neutral formats so customers cannot be held hostage by short sighted EDA vendors. The iPDK initiative is an excellent start but there is much more that can be accomplished.
For the other 90% of the semiconductor companies, the ones that cannot afford to develop custom design flows, PDK’s, and IP, the ones that cannot afford an in-house foundry team for early access, TSMC OIP is a critical enabler. Unfortunately, one of the messages of the conference was, “TSMC will not compete with partners”, which was a clear response to public relations pressure from the GlobalFoundries mantra, “We don’t compete with partners!”
Competition is what has made the semiconductor industry and semiconductors themselves what they are today! Competition is what drives innovation and keeps costs down. Not destructive competition, where the success of one depends on the failure of another, but constructive competition that promotes mutual survival and growth where everybody can win. The semiconductor design ecosystem is the poster child for destructive competition, which is why EDA ( SNPS, CDNS, MNTR, LAVA) valuations are a fraction of what they should be.
The TSMC Open Innovation Platform should be the cornerstone of the semiconductor design ecosystem. The ecosystem must NOT hold designers hostage with proprietary formats! The ecosystem MUSTinnovate to compete! The TSMC Open Innovation Platform MUST lead the way! TSMC is the #1 foundry and that will not change within my lifetime. TSMC must also be #1 in customer satisfaction and the design ecosystem ISwhere customer satisfaction begins.
Critical Area Analysis and Memory Redundancy
Simon Favre, one of our Calibre Technical Marketing Engineers, presented a paper on Critical Area Analysis and Memory Redundancy at the 2010 IEEE North Atlantic Test Workshop in Hopewell Junction, NY, just up the road from Fishkill. As Simon says…
Fishkill, New York. IBM is in Fishkill. IBM invented Critical Area Analysis in what, the 1960’s? Venturing into IBM country to speak on CAA is kind of like being the court jester. Fortunately, no one said, “Off with his head.” 🙂 But seriously, it amazes me how little is known about this topic.
Continue reading “Critical Area Analysis and Memory Redundancy”
Semiconductor Forecast 2010-2011 Update!
It’s that time of the quarter again, where the semiconductor analysts revise forecasts, passing off glorified guesstimates as valid financial planning data. They aren’t forecasts! They are observations! I blame these hacks for the 12.5% Silicon Valley unemployment rate! I blame these hacks for the dwindling available capitol for emerging fabless, EDA, and IP companies. I even blame these hacks for global warming! Okay, maybe not global warming, but the other stuff for sure!
iSupply is first out of the gate with a downward observation (forecast) of 32% versus 35%. Semiconductor revenues around the world are now expected to hit $302 billion this year, a gain of 32 percent from $228 billion in 2009. This drop is attributed to “weaker consumer demand for certain electronic devices and higher industry inventory” rather than “just bad forecasting”. Revenue in the fourth quarter is expected to drop by 0.3 percent, which will be the first sequential drop since the semiconductor market took an “unforecasted” nose dive in the fourth quarter of 2008 and first quarter of 2009.
TheSemiconductor Intelligence observation (forecast) was 36% so expect a revision from Bill Jewell. Bill also warns us that, according to National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the current recession is the longest since World War II:
- July 1981-November 1982: (14 months)
- July 1990-March 1991: (8 months)
- March 2001-November 2001: (8 months)
- December 2007-June 2009: (18 months)
The NBER is generally seen as the authority for documenting US recessions and defines them as:
“a significant decline in the economic activity spread across the country, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP growth, real personal income, employment (non-farm payrolls), industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”
By definition, the end of a recession means the U.S. economy stopped contracting and not when it reaches the level it was at the start, so we have a way to go yet. The US Real GDP & Durable Goods graphic is based on data from the U.S. Department of Commerce and shows the quarterly U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) indexed to 4th quarter 2007, the peak prior to the recession.
Speaking of the semiconductor ecosystem, next week I will be at the 2010 TSMC OIP Partner Forum on Tuesday and the SMIC 2010 Technology Symposium on Friday, two free lunches, the life of a world famous blogger! It would be a pleasure to meet you, that is, of course, if you recognize me without the Porsche hat!