-Where are we in the chip cycle? Why is it different this time?
-No one rings a bell to indicate the top or bottom of a cycle
-Could the lack of self-awareness lead to a worse downturn?
-Who will weather the cycle better & come out on top
-KLA sings same cautionary song as LRCX (with Intel Chorus)
-Sees similar softening of WFE & second half
-Same Government “notice” on China/14NM – Same supply ills
-We remain concerned about share loss in patterning
KLAC reported… Read More
-Need more/less spend & more/fewer chips
-The irony of chips act passage & Intel stumble on same day
-Due to excess supply of chips, Intel cuts spending
-Due to shortage of chips, the government increases spending
-How did this happen on the same day? Cosmic Coincidence?
The irony of intel cutting spending… Read More
-SEMICON good conference -No news but perceptibly nervous
-Memory chip warnings & memories of cycles past haunt us
-Can we turn the clock back 20+ years on China Chip Policy?
-Last ditch efforts on Chips for America before government vacation
Attendance at the show was good, better than last Decembers… Read More
We have been saying, for… Read More
-Lam missed on both top & bottom line due to supply chain
-Previous guide was “overly optimistic” about fixing issues
-Demand is great but doesn’t matter if you can’t serve it
-We remain concerned about ability to fix issues in near term.
Lam reported Revenues… Read More
-New PUV light source will push litho into Angstrom Era
-Rare earth elements shortages add to supply chain woes
-Could strategic wafer reserve releases lower memory pricing
-Can we cut off/turn off Russian access to chip equipment?
DUV, EUV and now “PUV” to become next generation lithography
Lithography is the locomotive… Read More
-Production constraints push backlog up $1.3B to $8B
-Looks like $100B in WFE 2022 VS $80B in 2021
-Almost sold out for 2022- Could lead to continued growth 2023
-Insp/metrology up 68% Y/Y- Expect steady growth in 2022
Can’t keep up with demand….
Revenue came in at $6.27B and NonGAAP EPS of $1.89. A very slight beat of … Read More
-Strong beat & guide- WFE up in 2021 & 2022-$160B combined
-Taking share in conductor etch & CVD
-Traditional Moore Scaling – No More?
-Foundry Logic leads followed by DRAM with weak NAND
Nice beat & guide & raise
Applied reported revenues of $5.58B with GM of 47.5% resulting in non-GAAP EPS of $1.63. … Read More
– ASML has good quarter driven by DUV & Logic (@72%)
– SMIC & other major customer slow EUV plans
– Logic (read that as TSMC) remains key demand led driver
– We are happy memory remains muted given cyclical potential
A very solid quarter with a continued road to growth
The quarter came in at Euro4,254B… Read More
