This past week we … Read More
-We think China issue is overblown- Zero sum game theory
-US should respond Tit-for-Tat and then some- Chop Chinese Chips
-Chip equip makers duplicitous behavior- smacks of hypocrisy
-Exporting chip equip biz/jobs to Asia while asking for CHIPS Act$
China’s… Read More
-Gordon Moore’s passing reminds us of how far we have come
-One of many pioneers of chip industry-but most remembered
-The most exponential & ubiquitous industry of all times
-“No exponential is forever”- Gordon Moore was an exponential
He will be remembered most for his observation… Read More
-UCTT & ICHR both pre announce ugly QTR & blame memory
-LRCX is the memory “poster child” & most impacted
-This is on top of China & Economic issues & memory specific
-Clearing out inventory is a sign of expected slow recovery
Both UCTT & ICHR that … Read More
-AMAT put up good numbers despite slowing cycle
-Growing backlog will help them manage declining orders
-Parts shortages still haunt but improving for 2-4 more quarters
-2023 will be down- too early to tell how much- 2024 who knows
Applied put up revenue of $6.7B and EPS of $2.03 versus … Read More
-Semi Equip go from bad to worse as TSMC cuts capex
-Numbers will be slashed for December quarter
-So far just a handful of exceptions to blockade but temporary
-China’s response could be very ugly
Just when some people thought that Fridays department of commerce announcement couldn’t get worse,… Read More
-Commerce Dept drops a 100 page nuke on the Semi industry
-Many words but not a lot of clarity on exact impact
-Implementation & interpretation will be key to quantify impact
-It’s all bad, just a question of how bad
We all know that China uses most of the world’s semiconductors… Read More
-Micron slams on the brakes of capacity & capex-
-But memory market is already over the cliff without skid marks
-It will likely take at least a year to sop up excess capacity
-Collateral impact on Samsung & others even more important
Micron capped off an otherwise… Read More
-Where are we in the chip cycle? Why is it different this time?
-No one rings a bell to indicate the top or bottom of a cycle
-Could the lack of self-awareness lead to a worse downturn?
-Who will weather the cycle better & come out on top
