– KLAC reported an OK QTR & flat guide-waiting for 2025 recovery?
– China exposure remains both risk & savior & big in backlog
– Wafer inspect strong- Patterning on long slide- PCB biz for sale
– Some bright spots but memory still weak- Foundry/Logic OK
Tag: semiconductor advisors
ASML – Strong order start on long road to 2025 recovery – 24 flat vs 23 – EUV shines
– ASML orders more than triple sequentially- Utilization increases
– Management remains conservative with flat revenues 2024 vs 2023
– Recovery will be slow, targeting 2025- Long & weak cyclical bottom
– Litho orders are leading indicator of future wider recovery
Strong orders pave the way for
… Read MoreASML- Absolutely Solid Monopoly in Lithography- Ignoring hysteria & stupidity
- This past weeks over-reaction to Canon echoes the Sculpta Scare
- Nanoimprint has made huge strides but is still not at all competitive
- Shows basic lack of understanding of technology by some pundits
- Chip industry has been searching for alternatives that don’t exist
Much ado about nothing much…..
This past week we … Read More
Micron Chip & Memory Down Cycle – It Ain’t Over Til it’s Over Maybe Longer and Deeper
- The memory down cycle is longer/deeper than many thought
- The recovery will be slower than past cycles- a “U” rather than “V”
- AI & new apps don’t make up for macro weakness
- Negative for overall semis & equip- Could China extend downcycle?
Micron report suggests a longer deeper down cycle
… Read MoreMicron Mandarin Memory Machinations- CHIPS Act semiconductor equipment hypocrisy
-We think China issue is overblown- Zero sum game theory
-US should respond Tit-for-Tat and then some- Chop Chinese Chips
-Chip equip makers duplicitous behavior- smacks of hypocrisy
-Exporting chip equip biz/jobs to Asia while asking for CHIPS Act$
Memory Market remains a zero sum game market much like petroleum
China’s… Read More
Gordon Moore’s legacy will live on through new paths & incarnations
-Gordon Moore’s passing reminds us of how far we have come
-One of many pioneers of chip industry-but most remembered
-The most exponential & ubiquitous industry of all times
-“No exponential is forever”- Gordon Moore was an exponential
Remembering Gordon Moore
He will be remembered most for his observation… Read More
Where there’s Smoke there’s Fire: UCTT ICHR LRCX AMAT KLAC Memory
-UCTT & ICHR both pre announce ugly QTR & blame memory
-LRCX is the memory “poster child” & most impacted
-This is on top of China & Economic issues & memory specific
-Clearing out inventory is a sign of expected slow recovery
UCTT & ICHR pre-announce ugly quarters
Both UCTT & ICHR that … Read More
AMAT – Backlog buffers downcycle- still fighting shortages – WFE down in 2023
-AMAT put up good numbers despite slowing cycle
-Growing backlog will help them manage declining orders
-Parts shortages still haunt but improving for 2-4 more quarters
-2023 will be down- too early to tell how much- 2024 who knows
Good numbers but already adjusted for China
Applied put up revenue of $6.7B and EPS of $2.03 versus … Read More
Chip Train Wreck Worsens
-Semi Equip go from bad to worse as TSMC cuts capex
-Numbers will be slashed for December quarter
-So far just a handful of exceptions to blockade but temporary
-China’s response could be very ugly
Fast motion train wreck
Just when some people thought that Fridays department of commerce announcement couldn’t get worse,… Read More
Semiconductor China Syndrome Meltdown and Mayhem
-Commerce Dept drops a 100 page nuke on the Semi industry
-Many words but not a lot of clarity on exact impact
-Implementation & interpretation will be key to quantify impact
-It’s all bad, just a question of how bad
China is the industry’s biggest customer
We all know that China uses most of the world’s semiconductors… Read More