KLAC same triple threat headwinds Supply, Economy & China

KLAC same triple threat headwinds Supply, Economy & China
by Robert Maire on 08-07-2022 at 10:00 am

KLA Tencor

-KLA sings same cautionary song as LRCX (with Intel Chorus)
-Sees similar softening of WFE & second half
-Same Government “notice” on China/14NM – Same supply ills
-We remain concerned about share loss in patterning

Deja Vue, all over again- Great QTR & Guide amid caution & softening

KLAC reported… Read More


Intel & Chips Act Passage Juxtaposition

Intel & Chips Act Passage Juxtaposition
by Robert Maire on 07-31-2022 at 6:00 am

Chips Act Corporate Welfare

-Need more/less spend & more/fewer chips
-The irony of chips act passage & Intel stumble on same day
-Due to excess supply of chips, Intel cuts spending
-Due to shortage of chips, the government increases spending
-How did this happen on the same day? Cosmic Coincidence?

Timing is everything

The irony of intel cutting spending… Read More


SEMICON West the Calm Before Storm? CHIPS Act Hail Mary? Old China Embargo New Again?

SEMICON West the Calm Before Storm? CHIPS Act Hail Mary? Old China Embargo New Again?
by Robert Maire on 07-17-2022 at 6:00 am

SEMICON West 2022

-SEMICON good conference -No news but perceptibly nervous
-Memory chip warnings & memories of cycles past haunt us
-Can we turn the clock back 20+ years on China Chip Policy?
-Last ditch efforts on Chips for America before government vacation

SEMICON West Conference

Attendance at the show was good, better than last Decembers… Read More


CHIPS for America DOA?

CHIPS for America DOA?
by Robert Maire on 06-19-2022 at 6:00 am

CHIPS for America 2022
  • We think hopes for CHIPS for America is fading fast
  • Politics, Jan 6th, guns, inflation, partisanship will likely block it
  • Alternative to building US semis is knocking down China chips
  • The only political option may be more restrictions on China

Chips for America act seems drowned out by partisan screaming

We have been saying, for… Read More


LRCX weak miss results and guide Supply chain worse than expected and longer to fix

LRCX weak miss results and guide Supply chain worse than expected and longer to fix
by Robert Maire on 04-23-2022 at 6:00 am

Lamb to the Slaughter LRCX

-Lam missed on both top & bottom line due to supply chain
-Previous guide was “overly optimistic” about fixing issues
-Demand is great but doesn’t matter if you can’t serve it
-We remain concerned about ability to fix issues in near term.

A miss on numbers- supply issues will persist

Lam reported Revenues… Read More


DUV, EUV now PUV Next gen Litho and Materials Shortages worsen supply chain

DUV, EUV now PUV Next gen Litho and Materials Shortages worsen supply chain
by Robert Maire on 04-01-2022 at 8:00 am

EUV DUV Lithography

-New PUV light source will push litho into Angstrom Era
-Rare earth elements shortages add to supply chain woes
-Could strategic wafer reserve releases lower memory pricing
-Can we cut off/turn off Russian access to chip equipment?

DUV, EUV and now “PUV” to become next generation lithography

Lithography is the locomotive… Read More


AMAT – Supply Constraints continue & Backlog Builds- Almost sold out for 2022

AMAT – Supply Constraints continue & Backlog Builds- Almost sold out for 2022
by Robert Maire on 02-20-2022 at 6:00 am

Applied Materials

-Production constraints push backlog up $1.3B to $8B
-Looks like $100B in WFE 2022 VS $80B in 2021
-Almost sold out for 2022- Could lead to continued growth 2023
-Insp/metrology up 68% Y/Y- Expect steady growth in 2022

Can’t keep up with demand….

Revenue came in at $6.27B and NonGAAP EPS of $1.89. A very slight beat of … Read More


AMAT Nice Beat Strong Growth for Both 2021 & 2022

AMAT Nice Beat Strong Growth for Both 2021 & 2022
by Robert Maire on 05-23-2021 at 6:00 am

Applied Materials Q2 2021 1

-Strong beat & guide- WFE up in 2021 & 2022-$160B combined
-Taking share in conductor etch & CVD
-Traditional Moore Scaling – No More?
-Foundry Logic leads followed by DRAM with weak NAND

Nice beat & guide & raise
Applied reported revenues of $5.58B with GM of 47.5% resulting in non-GAAP EPS of $1.63. … Read More


ASML – Strong DUV Throwback While EUV Slows- Logic Dominates Memory

ASML – Strong DUV Throwback While EUV Slows- Logic Dominates Memory
by Robert Maire on 01-24-2021 at 6:00 am

ASML SMIC TSMC EUV DUV

ASML has good quarter driven by DUV & Logic (@72%)
– SMIC & other major customer slow EUV plans
– Logic (read that as TSMC) remains key demand led driver
– We are happy memory remains muted given cyclical potential

A very solid quarter with a continued road to growth
The quarter came in at Euro4,254B… Read More


Podcast EP4: Can China Really Become Self-Sufficient in Semiconductors?

Podcast EP4: Can China Really Become Self-Sufficient in Semiconductors?
by Daniel Nenni on 01-22-2021 at 10:00 am

Dan and Mike are joined by industry expert Robert Maire for a discussion on China based semiconductors. Robert is an internationally recognized expert on all aspects of semiconductor manufacturing. He joined SemiWiki in 2015 and his blogs have garnered more than 2 million views and many pointed discussions. Robert founded Semiconductor… Read More