SMIC Cut Off = Worst case scenario
SMIC is on US gov “no fly” list for US Equipment Companies
Will likely lead to loss of all of China- 25% to 50% of revenues
Retaliation by China will worsen situation
SMIC cut off from US technology (Chip Equip)
It has been reported in the Wall St Journal and many news outlets that the US government… Read More
Is the US finally getting truly tough on China? or just a bluff?
Could lead to a global reset of the industry & 10 year retreat?
Tech stocks wings have melted after super heated stock run?
SMIC added to the “naughty” list?
There have been numerous reports that the US is considering adding SMIC to the China “naughty”… Read More
Higher Foundry/logic exposure helps-
Little or no Covid or China trade impact-
Nice quarter but even better guide-
Applied reported revenues of $4.4B and NonGAAP EPS of $1.06, nicely above street estimates of $4.2B and $0.95 in EPS. Guidance is for revenues $4.6B +-$200M and EPS of $1.17+- $0.06, versus current expectations of… Read More
Two months ago most forecasts called for a decline in the semiconductor market in 2020 as reported in our Semiconductor Intelligence May 2020 newsletter. The outlook changed in June, as the Worldwide Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) consensus forecast projected 3.3% growth in 2020. This month IC Insights revised its IC
We always warn clients that even in the best of times, Joint Ventures (JVs) in China always end in tears. And we are far from the best of times right now. There is a major example of this playing out right now with Arm China.
Arm’s China JV is, to put it simply, a bit of a mess. The Board has fired the CEO, but he has refused to leave. And owing… Read More
In this third article about China’s role in the global semiconductor industry I analyse the current state of affairs of the Chinese semiconductor industry in different segments. In the previous articles, I looked at the possible effects of a US-China decoupling in the semiconductor industry and the impact of the Big … Read More
Hours after agreeing to build a fab in US TSMC will stop selling to Huawei- Repercussions will reverberate through all tech: Semis, semi equip, chip customers, all collateral damage.
It has been reported by Nikkei and other sources that TSMC has stopped taking orders from Huawei in order to comply with US export controls.
Is TSMC the real target, not just collateral damage?
Is equipment embargo threat to bring TSMC to heel?
Is an embargo a “Trifecta” of US strategic goals?
Maybe TSMC is a real target of chip equipment embargo not just potential collateral damage
It occurs to us when we talk about TSMC being caught in the middle between … Read More
Economic damage-
China relationship damage will far outlast direct Covid19 logistics impact-
Economic damage could be huge but trade damage could be larger with more specific impact on chips-
A long build up to a China trade nuclear winter, the “drum-beat of war”
When we started talking about a potential chip trade… Read More
Lam Q1 revenue soft by roughly 15% due to supply side
Demand remains solid for Q2 but beyond that, dubious
No guide but Q2 could be => Q1 revenues
NAND solid, China big @ 32%, Foundry remains great
Lam reported a solid quarter but light on revenues…
It was no surprise that Lam reported revenues of $2.5B versus their original… Read More
