-ASML weakness is evidence of deeper chip down cycle
-When ASML sneezes other chip equip makers catch a cold
-Will backlog last long enough? Will EUV demand hold up?
-“Unthinkable” event, litho cancelations, could shock industry
ASML reported Euro6.7B… Read More
-Reports of further tightening of China SemiCap Restrictions
-Likely closing loopholes & pushing back technology line
-Dutch have joined, Japan will too- So far no Chinese reaction
-SVB is toast but repercussions may be far worse
It was reported byBloomberg of Friday… Read More
-We attended the SPIE lithography Conference in San Jose
-No significant news or announcements on EUV
-Focus on 500WPM target and High & Hyper NA rollout
-AMAT overblown Sculpta-Not exactly what its cracked up to be
We have been attending SPIE for many years now and are happy to see a return to pre Covid levels… Read More
-Business will “drift down” over the course of 2023
-Not just memory is weak- China issue, foundry/logic slowing
-March guide worse than expected (Like Lam)
-Backlog likely saw push outs & cancelations but still long
Much as we saw with Lam, KLA reported a beat on the December quarter… Read More
-Hynix reports worst downturn in 10yrs – Already in red ink
-If the #2 memory maker is already negative what does it say?
-Confirms our view of 2023 write off- maybe 2024 better?
-Micron Mangled? & Toshiba Toast?- Buyers advantage
Not all that surprisingly Hynix reported… Read More
-US, Japan & Dutch agree to embargo some China chip equip
-Goes beyond just leading edge & will increase negative impact
-China might catch up in decades or invade Taiwan tomorrow
-Why the memory downturn could be longer than expected
It appears that the US has put together a coalition of the US, Japan and… Read More
-Demand far exceeds supply & much longer than any downturn
-Full speed ahead-$40B in solid backlog provides great comfort
-ASP increase shows strength- China is non issue
-In a completely different league than other equipment makers
Revenues were Euro6.4B with system sales making up Euro4.7B… Read More
-Micron announces more production cuts & lower forecast
-DRAM will be negative- NAND sounds barely flat (for now)
-Capital spending to be cut to near zero- essential only
-Will the rest of the industry follow suit?
When Micron first announced… Read More
-AMAT put up good numbers despite slowing cycle
-Growing backlog will help them manage declining orders
-Parts shortages still haunt but improving for 2-4 more quarters
-2023 will be down- too early to tell how much- 2024 who knows
Applied put up revenue of $6.7B and EPS of $2.03 versus … Read More
-KLA great quarter & guide as backlog mutes China/Economy
-Patterning starts to catch up to wafer inspection outperform
-China impact is limited to leading edge & specific customers
-Cuts in memory capex less impactful on KLA
Revenues were $2.7B with EPS of $7.06 versus street… Read More
