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Micron Chip & Memory Down Cycle – It Ain’t Over Til it’s Over Maybe Longer and Deeper

Micron Chip & Memory Down Cycle – It Ain’t Over Til it’s Over Maybe Longer and Deeper
by Robert Maire on 10-01-2023 at 6:00 pm

china 800 pound gorilla
  • The memory down cycle is longer/deeper than many thought
  • The recovery will be slower than past cycles- a “U” rather than “V”
  • AI & new apps don’t make up for macro weakness
  •  Negative for overall semis & equip- Could China extend downcycle?
Micron report suggests a longer deeper down cycle
Read More

Has U.S. already lost Chip war to China? Is Taiwan’s silicon shield a liability?

Has U.S. already lost Chip war to China? Is Taiwan’s silicon shield a liability?
by Robert Maire on 09-20-2023 at 6:00 am

SMIC 7nm
  • Huawei’s 7NM chip? This wasn’t supposed to happen
  • Are Chips a weapon for U.S. or China? Role reversal?
  • Will Taiwan turn from protected asset to unwanted liability?
  • Are sanctions so porous that US has already lost to China?
While EUV is critical to advanced chips there are workarounds

Many people either thought or assumed… Read More


ASML-Strong Results & Guide Prove China Concerns Overblown-Chips Slow to Recover

ASML-Strong Results & Guide Prove China Concerns Overblown-Chips Slow to Recover
by Robert Maire on 07-21-2023 at 8:00 am

ASML 2023 Results

-ASML reports better results & guide despite China restrictions
-Supports our view of China issues not that impactful longer term
-Industry recovery seems very far off with more delays
-ASML remains the best, most robust story in a weak industry

ASML reports nice beat despite China concerns

ASML reported revenues of Euro6.9B… Read More


SEMICON West 2023 Summary – No recovery in sight – Next Year?

SEMICON West 2023 Summary – No recovery in sight – Next Year?
by Robert Maire on 07-15-2023 at 6:00 am

Semicon west 2023

-SEMICON well attended but bouncing along the biz bottom
-Recovery seems at least a year away with memory even more
-AI creates hope but not impactful- Disconnect tween stocks & reality
-AMAT me too platform- Back end benefits from chiplets

SEMICON busy but subdued

SEMICON is certainly back to pre-covid levels or perhaps better.… Read More


Micron Mandarin Memory Machinations- CHIPS Act semiconductor equipment hypocrisy

Micron Mandarin Memory Machinations- CHIPS Act semiconductor equipment hypocrisy
by Robert Maire on 05-26-2023 at 6:00 am

Xi Biden China CHIPs ACT

-We think China issue is overblown- Zero sum game theory
-US should respond Tit-for-Tat and then some- Chop Chinese Chips
-Chip equip makers duplicitous behavior- smacks of hypocrisy
-Exporting chip equip biz/jobs to Asia while asking for CHIPS Act$

Memory Market remains a zero sum game market much like petroleum

China’s… Read More


AMAT- Trailing Edge & China Almost Offset Floundering Foundry & Missing Memory

AMAT- Trailing Edge & China Almost Offset Floundering Foundry & Missing Memory
by Robert Maire on 05-22-2023 at 8:00 am

Amat China

-AMAT reported inline resulted helped by trailing edge & China
-Memory remains at very low levels- Foundry remains uninspiring
-China seems to be buying anything they are allowed to buy
-The recovery is too far out & unknown to handicap

Quarter was OK and Guidance also OK

Revenue was $6.63B and EPS of $1.86 versus reduced… Read More


LAM Not Yet at Bottom Memory Worsening Down 50%

LAM Not Yet at Bottom Memory Worsening Down 50%
by Robert Maire on 04-24-2023 at 10:00 am

LAM RESEARCH Vantex external chamber lrg 300x300

-Lam reported in line results on reduced expectations
-Guidance disappoints as memory decline continues
-Memory capex down 50% but still sees “further declines”
-Lam ties future to EUV maybe not good idea after ASML report

Lam comes in above grossly already reduced expectations
and misses on guidance

We always … Read More


ASML Wavering- Supports our Concern of Second Leg Down for Semis- False Bottom

ASML Wavering- Supports our Concern of Second Leg Down for Semis- False Bottom
by Robert Maire on 04-21-2023 at 8:00 am

Semiconductor False Bottom

-ASML weakness is evidence of deeper chip down cycle
-When ASML sneezes other chip equip makers catch a cold
-Will backlog last long enough? Will EUV demand hold up?
-“Unthinkable” event, litho cancelations, could shock industry

ASML has in line quarter but alarm bells ring on wavering outlook

ASML reported Euro6.7B… Read More


Gordon Moore’s legacy will live on through new paths & incarnations

Gordon Moore’s legacy will live on through new paths & incarnations
by Robert Maire on 03-25-2023 at 6:00 pm

Gordon Moore RIP

-Gordon Moore’s passing reminds us of how far we have come
-One of many pioneers of chip industry-but most remembered
-The most exponential & ubiquitous industry of all times
-“No exponential is forever”- Gordon Moore was an exponential

Remembering Gordon Moore

He will be remembered most for his observation… Read More


Sino Semicap Sanction Screws Snugged- SVB- Aftermath more important than event

Sino Semicap Sanction Screws Snugged- SVB- Aftermath more important than event
by Robert Maire on 03-15-2023 at 10:00 am

China Chip Embargo

-Reports of further tightening of China SemiCap Restrictions
-Likely closing loopholes & pushing back technology line
-Dutch have joined, Japan will too- So far no Chinese reaction
-SVB is toast but repercussions may be far worse

Reports of tightening semiconductor sanctions on Friday

It was reported byBloomberg of Friday… Read More