Semiwiki 400x100 1 final
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LAM Not Yet at Bottom Memory Worsening Down 50%

LAM Not Yet at Bottom Memory Worsening Down 50%
by Robert Maire on 04-24-2023 at 10:00 am

LAM RESEARCH Vantex external chamber lrg 300x300

-Lam reported in line results on reduced expectations
-Guidance disappoints as memory decline continues
-Memory capex down 50% but still sees “further declines”
-Lam ties future to EUV maybe not good idea after ASML report

Lam comes in above grossly already reduced expectations
and misses on guidance

We always … Read More


Sino Semicap Sanction Screws Snugged- SVB- Aftermath more important than event

Sino Semicap Sanction Screws Snugged- SVB- Aftermath more important than event
by Robert Maire on 03-15-2023 at 10:00 am

China Chip Embargo

-Reports of further tightening of China SemiCap Restrictions
-Likely closing loopholes & pushing back technology line
-Dutch have joined, Japan will too- So far no Chinese reaction
-SVB is toast but repercussions may be far worse

Reports of tightening semiconductor sanctions on Friday

It was reported byBloomberg of Friday… Read More


U.S., Japan & Dutch versus China Chips & Memory looks to be in a long downturn

U.S., Japan & Dutch versus China Chips & Memory looks to be in a long downturn
by Robert Maire on 02-01-2023 at 2:00 pm

US Japan China

-US, Japan & Dutch agree to embargo some China chip equip
-Goes beyond just leading edge & will increase negative impact
-China might catch up in decades or invade Taiwan tomorrow
-Why the memory downturn could be longer than expected

Ganging up on China

It appears that the US has put together a coalition of the US, Japan and… Read More


Why Intel may be the first casualty if Beijing retaliates over Biden’s export controls

Why Intel may be the first casualty if Beijing retaliates over Biden’s export controls
by Craig Addison on 11-14-2022 at 6:00 am

Intel China Tower Semiconductor

After the Biden administration upped the ante in the tech war by restricting China’s access to advanced US semiconductor technology, the $64,000 question was “How might Beijing respond?”

Punishing American companies in China (like Apple and Tesla) was not considered likely given the employment they generate – Apple… Read More


KLAC- Strong QTR and Guide but Backlog mutes China and Economic Impact

KLAC- Strong QTR and Guide but Backlog mutes China and Economic Impact
by Robert Maire on 10-30-2022 at 5:00 pm

KLA SemiWiki 2022

-KLA great quarter & guide as backlog mutes China/Economy
-Patterning starts to catch up to wafer inspection outperform
-China impact is limited to leading edge & specific customers
-Cuts in memory capex less impactful on KLA

KLAC reports strong quarter and good guide

Revenues were $2.7B with EPS of $7.06 versus street… Read More


LRCX down from here – 2023 down more than 20% due to China and Downcycle

LRCX down from here – 2023 down more than 20% due to China and Downcycle
by Robert Maire on 10-27-2022 at 10:00 am

Lam Research USA Chips

-Lam reports good quarter that is high water mark for cycle
-2023 WFE to be down more than 20%- Cuts spending & Hiring
-If we back out deferred rev outlook would be down for Dec
-Memory already Down & China down $2-$2.5B in 2023

Lam reports good quarter but likely peak of current cycle with clear drop

Lam reported revenues of … Read More


Is ASML Immune from China Impact?

Is ASML Immune from China Impact?
by Robert Maire on 10-21-2022 at 10:00 am

ASML China Immunity

-ASML has great QTR & Outlook & Huge Euro8.9B orders
-Relatively immune from China due to mainly non leading edge
-Monster Euro38B backlog – 60EUV & 375DUV systems in 2023
-5% China risk to 2023- still mainly supply constrained

ASML proves litho’s place at Apex of semiconductor food chain

ASML announced… Read More


Chip Train Wreck Worsens

Chip Train Wreck Worsens
by Robert Maire on 10-16-2022 at 4:00 pm

Train Wreck Semiconductors 2022

-Semi Equip go from bad to worse as TSMC cuts capex
-Numbers will be slashed for December quarter
-So far just a handful of exceptions to blockade but temporary
-China’s response could be very ugly

Fast motion train wreck

Just when some people thought that Fridays department of commerce announcement couldn’t get worse,… Read More


Semiconductor China Syndrome Meltdown and Mayhem

Semiconductor China Syndrome Meltdown and Mayhem
by Robert Maire on 10-13-2022 at 6:00 am

The China Syndrome

-Commerce Dept drops a 100 page nuke on the Semi industry
-Many words but not a lot of clarity on exact impact
-Implementation & interpretation will be key to quantify impact
-It’s all bad, just a question of how bad

China is the industry’s biggest customer

We all know that China uses most of the world’s semiconductors… Read More


Why China hates CHIPS

Why China hates CHIPS
by Craig Addison on 09-05-2022 at 6:00 am

Joe Bidden CHIPS Act 2022

The CHIPS and Science Act has its fair share of critics, with detractors calling it corporate welfare for “losers” like Intel, or lacking guardrails to prevent companies making legacy chips in China.

One of the most vocal opponents of the act has been China’s communist-ruled government.

CHIPS – an acronym for Creating Helpful … Read More