SEMICON West the Calm Before Storm? CHIPS Act Hail Mary? Old China Embargo New Again?

SEMICON West the Calm Before Storm? CHIPS Act Hail Mary? Old China Embargo New Again?
by Robert Maire on 07-17-2022 at 6:00 am

SEMICON West 2022

-SEMICON good conference -No news but perceptibly nervous
-Memory chip warnings & memories of cycles past haunt us
-Can we turn the clock back 20+ years on China Chip Policy?
-Last ditch efforts on Chips for America before government vacation

SEMICON West Conference

Attendance at the show was good, better than last Decembers… Read More


ASML- US Seeks to Halt DUV China Sales

ASML- US Seeks to Halt DUV China Sales
by Robert Maire on 07-10-2022 at 6:00 am

China Semiocnductor Ban DUV EUV

-If you can’t beat them, embargo them
-It has been reported US wants ASML to halt China DUV tools
-US obviously wants to kill, not just wound China chip biz
-Is this embargo the alternative to failed CHIPS act?
-Hard to say “do as I say, not as I do”- but US does anyway

First EUV ban now DUV ban? Are process & yieldRead More


Micron kicks off the down cycle – Chops 2023 capex – Holding inventory off street

Micron kicks off the down cycle – Chops 2023 capex – Holding inventory off street
by Robert Maire on 07-02-2022 at 10:00 am

Stock Crash 2022

-Micron reports weak outlook for fiscal Q4
-2023 capex to be down versus 2022 capex of $12B & Q3’s $2B
-Company keeping inventory off street to support pricing
-Memory is usually the first shoe to drop in a down cycle

Sharp drop in demand at end of Q3…..

Micron reported a sharp drop in demand at the end of its fiscal Q3,… Read More


Semiconductor Hard or Soft Landing? CHIPS Act?

Semiconductor Hard or Soft Landing? CHIPS Act?
by Robert Maire on 07-02-2022 at 6:00 am

Off the cliff without skidmarks

-Chip cycle will come down. Only question is landing impact
-What does cyclical end do to re-shoring & build out plans?
-Is it less demand, excess supply or both? Does it matter?
-CHIP Act rescue efforts get desperate switching to threats

Any landing you can walk away from is a good one

For those of us who have been in the semiconductor… Read More


CHIPS for America DOA?

CHIPS for America DOA?
by Robert Maire on 06-19-2022 at 6:00 am

CHIPS for America 2022
  • We think hopes for CHIPS for America is fading fast
  • Politics, Jan 6th, guns, inflation, partisanship will likely block it
  • Alternative to building US semis is knocking down China chips
  • The only political option may be more restrictions on China

Chips for America act seems drowned out by partisan screaming

We have been saying, for… Read More


Has KLA lost its way?

Has KLA lost its way?
by Robert Maire on 05-01-2022 at 6:00 am

KLA SPIE 2022

-KLA has another great QTR in face of overwhelming demand
-Supply chain issues obliterated by backlog
-Longer term technology leadership concerns are increasing
-We see limited upside near term & remain cyclically cautious

Another great quarter- demand remains super strong

KLA’s performance remains great as does… Read More


LRCX weak miss results and guide Supply chain worse than expected and longer to fix

LRCX weak miss results and guide Supply chain worse than expected and longer to fix
by Robert Maire on 04-23-2022 at 6:00 am

Lamb to the Slaughter LRCX

-Lam missed on both top & bottom line due to supply chain
-Previous guide was “overly optimistic” about fixing issues
-Demand is great but doesn’t matter if you can’t serve it
-We remain concerned about ability to fix issues in near term.

A miss on numbers- supply issues will persist

Lam reported Revenues… Read More


Chip Enabler and Bottleneck ASML

Chip Enabler and Bottleneck ASML
by Robert Maire on 04-22-2022 at 6:00 am

ASML Zeiss SemiWiki

-ASML reported an “in line” Q1- Orders remain super strong
-Ongoing supply chain issues will limit growth and upside
-ASML targets 2025 for supply fixes- We are not so sure
-Intel, TSMC, Samsung won’t be able to build all fabs they plan

ASML has “In linesh” Q1, orders still off the charts

ASML reported… Read More


DUV, EUV now PUV Next gen Litho and Materials Shortages worsen supply chain

DUV, EUV now PUV Next gen Litho and Materials Shortages worsen supply chain
by Robert Maire on 04-01-2022 at 8:00 am

EUV DUV Lithography

-New PUV light source will push litho into Angstrom Era
-Rare earth elements shortages add to supply chain woes
-Could strategic wafer reserve releases lower memory pricing
-Can we cut off/turn off Russian access to chip equipment?

DUV, EUV and now “PUV” to become next generation lithography

Lithography is the locomotive… Read More


AMAT – Supply Constraints continue & Backlog Builds- Almost sold out for 2022

AMAT – Supply Constraints continue & Backlog Builds- Almost sold out for 2022
by Robert Maire on 02-20-2022 at 6:00 am

Applied Materials

-Production constraints push backlog up $1.3B to $8B
-Looks like $100B in WFE 2022 VS $80B in 2021
-Almost sold out for 2022- Could lead to continued growth 2023
-Insp/metrology up 68% Y/Y- Expect steady growth in 2022

Can’t keep up with demand….

Revenue came in at $6.27B and NonGAAP EPS of $1.89. A very slight beat of … Read More