-Where are we in the chip cycle? Why is it different this time?
-No one rings a bell to indicate the top or bottom of a cycle
-Could the lack of self-awareness lead to a worse downturn?
-Who will weather the cycle better & come out on top
Author: Robert Maire
The Semiconductor Cycle Snowballs Down the Food Chain – Gravitational Cognizance
Gravitational Cognizance
… Read MoreKLAC same triple threat headwinds Supply, Economy & China
-KLA sings same cautionary song as LRCX (with Intel Chorus)
-Sees similar softening of WFE & second half
-Same Government “notice” on China/14NM – Same supply ills
-We remain concerned about share loss in patterning
Deja Vue, all over again- Great QTR & Guide amid caution & softening
KLAC reported… Read More
LRCX – Great QTR and guide but gathering China storm
-Lam reports record QTR and great guide amid growing anxiety
-Weakness has not yet trickled down to Lam’s order book
-Company contacted by US government on new China restrictions
-Combination of supply issues/China/economy cut WFE view
Numbers are great
Lam reported revenues of $4.64B and EPS of $8.83 which represented… Read More
Intel & Chips Act Passage Juxtaposition
-Need more/less spend & more/fewer chips
-The irony of chips act passage & Intel stumble on same day
-Due to excess supply of chips, Intel cuts spending
-Due to shortage of chips, the government increases spending
-How did this happen on the same day? Cosmic Coincidence?
Timing is everything
The irony of intel cutting spending… Read More
ASML Business is so Great it Looks Bad
-ASML reports strong quarter- Orders up 20% Qtr/Qtr
-Customers rush delivery which delays revenue recognition
-Chip makers need hard to get litho tools most of all
-Warning on concerns about consumer chip demand
Good numbers that are even better in reality
ASML reported revenues of Euro5.4B and EPS of Euro3.54. Most importantly… Read More
SEMICON West the Calm Before Storm? CHIPS Act Hail Mary? Old China Embargo New Again?
-SEMICON good conference -No news but perceptibly nervous
-Memory chip warnings & memories of cycles past haunt us
-Can we turn the clock back 20+ years on China Chip Policy?
-Last ditch efforts on Chips for America before government vacation
SEMICON West Conference
Attendance at the show was good, better than last Decembers… Read More
ASML- US Seeks to Halt DUV China Sales
-If you can’t beat them, embargo them
-It has been reported US wants ASML to halt China DUV tools
-US obviously wants to kill, not just wound China chip biz
-Is this embargo the alternative to failed CHIPS act?
-Hard to say “do as I say, not as I do”- but US does anyway
First EUV ban now DUV ban? Are process & yield… Read More
Micron kicks off the down cycle – Chops 2023 capex – Holding inventory off street
-Micron reports weak outlook for fiscal Q4
-2023 capex to be down versus 2022 capex of $12B & Q3’s $2B
-Company keeping inventory off street to support pricing
-Memory is usually the first shoe to drop in a down cycle
Sharp drop in demand at end of Q3…..
Micron reported a sharp drop in demand at the end of its fiscal Q3,… Read More
Semiconductor Hard or Soft Landing? CHIPS Act?
-Chip cycle will come down. Only question is landing impact
-What does cyclical end do to re-shoring & build out plans?
-Is it less demand, excess supply or both? Does it matter?
-CHIP Act rescue efforts get desperate switching to threats
Any landing you can walk away from is a good one
For those of us who have been in the semiconductor… Read More
CHIPS for America DOA?
- We think hopes for CHIPS for America is fading fast
- Politics, Jan 6th, guns, inflation, partisanship will likely block it
- Alternative to building US semis is knocking down China chips
- The only political option may be more restrictions on China
Chips for America act seems drowned out by partisan screaming
We have been saying, for… Read More
Intel to Compete with Broadcom and Marvell in the Lucrative ASIC Business