Is there more downside than upside in stocks?
Entering a seasonally weak period, then what?
Does China trade come back to haunt industry?
Cycle is past the bottom-But what kind of up cycle?
The most recent up cycle in the industry was a huge one, driven by a huge spend on NAND as SSD’s sucked up infinite number of devices. DRAM … Read More
Good end to a weak fiscal year- and end to down cycle
As expected and well telegraphed by TSMC, LRCX, ASML & KLAC, AMAT put up a good quarter and guide as the last to report that the industry has turned the corner on the down cycle. While not a rip roaring recovery, its better to return to growth than continue a downward trend.
Results… Read More
- KLAC Strong Beat on Both Sept Q & Dec Guide
- Foundry/logic (TSMC) up 50% H2 vs H1
- Gen 5 acceptance and 5NM rollout drive future
Strong beat in Sept results and Dec Guide
KLAC reported revenue of $1.41B and EPS of $2.48 handily beating street estimates of $1.5B and $2.20 in EPS. More importantly the company guided December to be revenues… Read More
- Its “Complicated”- A 3 way Chip Relationship
- Competing for Wafers, Moore’s Law & Love
- Who’s Competing with Whom?
- All’s Fair
The 3 way relationship is more complex than it seems
On the surface it seems simple. AMD and TSMC compete with Intel making its own chips and TSMC making them for AMD. But… Read More
LAM will likely bounce on Korea gains & TSMC
Memory still sucks but TSMC is hot!
Korea upside from share gains?
Japan/Korea – The “Beer Barometer”
Looks like a good Q3….
We think when Lam reports their Q3 this wednesday it will likely be a positive catalyst for the stock as we think the report will be better… Read More
ASML in line QTR with big Orders
Near term slippage w long term upside
Logic is strong but memory recovery unknown
EUV is finally a reality/commercialized
In line quarter- supplier slippage expected in Q4
Results were revenues of Euro 3B and EPS of Euro 1.49, more or less in line with earnings estimate if a tad bit light in revenue. … Read More
TSMC puts up solid QTR, Capex increase for 5NM and capacity increase, 5G/mobile remains driver- HPC good 7NM, 27% of revs- Very nice margins!
In line quarter-Good guide
TSMC reported revenues of $9.4B and EPS of $0.62 , more or less in line with expectations, perhaps a touch below ” whisper” expectations which had been… Read More
Reports of increasing TSMC 7NM lead times
There have been a number of increasing media reports about lengthening leads times for TSMC 7NM process. From what we have been able to determine its not due to TSMC having a yield bust or other production issues, it is simply one of stronger than expected demand.
There have been reports of … Read More
Investors underestimate Japan/Korea trade war, US chip equip companies get collateral benefit, Long term share shifts in China & Korea, Creates near term upside for US companies, Memory Chip Price “Mirage”.
The lesser known trade war
While the market and the news has been pre-occupied with the ongoing soap
… Read More
Is GloFo using the trade war as an excuse?
Does TSMC get lumped in with China on trade?
Does this alienate TSMC into China’s embrace?
Much like Vietnam and Korea before it, there have been a number of “surrogate” wars between the US and China as well as many other wars between the US and Russia using… Read More