Report from SPIE- EUV’s next 15 years- AMAT “Sculpta” braggadocio rollout

Report from SPIE- EUV’s next 15 years- AMAT “Sculpta” braggadocio rollout
by Robert Maire on 03-06-2023 at 10:00 am

EUV DUV Lithography

-We attended the SPIE lithography Conference in San Jose
-No significant news or announcements on EUV
-Focus on 500WPM target and High & Hyper NA rollout
-AMAT overblown Sculpta-Not exactly what its cracked up to be

SPIE Lithography 2023

We have been attending SPIE for many years now and are happy to see a return to pre Covid levels… Read More


AMAT- Flat is better than down-Trailing tool strength offsets memory- backlog up

AMAT- Flat is better than down-Trailing tool strength offsets memory- backlog up
by Robert Maire on 02-20-2023 at 10:00 am

AMAT CVD 3

-Strength in trailing tools offsets weak memory resulting in flat
-Order book very volatile but backlog surprisingly still grew
-Trailing edge VS Leading edge = 50/50 – Foundry/logic over 2/3
-Not nearly as bad as Lam but not as good as ASML

AMAT posts good quarter & guide – Flat for three quarters

Applied Materials… Read More


KLAC- Weak Guide-2023 will “drift down”-Not just memory weak, China & logic too

KLAC- Weak Guide-2023 will “drift down”-Not just memory weak, China & logic too
by Robert Maire on 02-06-2023 at 6:00 am

KLAC Tencor SemiWiki

-Business will “drift down” over the course of 2023
-Not just memory is weak- China issue, foundry/logic slowing
-March guide worse than expected (Like Lam)
-Backlog likely saw push outs & cancelations but still long

Good quarter but weak guide

Much as we saw with Lam, KLA reported a beat on the December quarter… Read More


Hynix historic loss confirms memory meltdown-getting worse – AMD a bright spot

Hynix historic loss confirms memory meltdown-getting worse – AMD a bright spot
by Robert Maire on 02-03-2023 at 8:00 am

Memory Meltdown

-Hynix reports worst downturn in 10yrs – Already in red ink
-If the #2 memory maker is already negative what does it say?
-Confirms our view of 2023 write off- maybe 2024 better?
-Micron Mangled? & Toshiba Toast?- Buyers advantage

Hynix posts record $1.4B loss- worst in 10 years

Not all that surprisingly Hynix reported… Read More


U.S., Japan & Dutch versus China Chips & Memory looks to be in a long downturn

U.S., Japan & Dutch versus China Chips & Memory looks to be in a long downturn
by Robert Maire on 02-01-2023 at 2:00 pm

US Japan China

-US, Japan & Dutch agree to embargo some China chip equip
-Goes beyond just leading edge & will increase negative impact
-China might catch up in decades or invade Taiwan tomorrow
-Why the memory downturn could be longer than expected

Ganging up on China

It appears that the US has put together a coalition of the US, Japan and… Read More


Lam chops guidance, outlook, headcount- an ugly, long downturn- memory plunges

Lam chops guidance, outlook, headcount- an ugly, long downturn- memory plunges
by Robert Maire on 01-31-2023 at 2:00 pm

Lamb chops

-Lam Research chops guidance, outlook & headcount sharply
-Further declines as 2023 will be H1 weighted- No end in sight
-System sales cut by more than half as even service is cut
-Memory is the culprit as expected-Forcing business “reset”

A sad sounding conference call….

While Lam reported a good December,… Read More


ASML – Powering through weakness – Almost untouchable – Lead times exceed downturn

ASML – Powering through weakness – Almost untouchable – Lead times exceed downturn
by Robert Maire on 01-26-2023 at 10:00 am

Robert Maire Bloomberg

-Demand far exceeds supply & much longer than any downturn
-Full speed ahead-$40B in solid backlog provides great comfort
-ASP increase shows strength- China is non issue
-In a completely different league than other equipment makers

Reports a good beat & Guide

Revenues were Euro6.4B with system sales making up Euro4.7B… Read More


Where there’s Smoke there’s Fire: UCTT ICHR LRCX AMAT KLAC Memory

Where there’s Smoke there’s Fire: UCTT ICHR LRCX AMAT KLAC Memory
by Robert Maire on 01-16-2023 at 10:00 am

Stock Market on Fire

-UCTT & ICHR both pre announce ugly QTR & blame memory
-LRCX is the memory “poster child” & most impacted
-This is on top of China & Economic issues & memory specific
-Clearing out inventory is a sign of expected slow recovery

UCTT & ICHR pre-announce ugly quarters

Both UCTT & ICHR that … Read More


Micron Ugly Free Fall Continues as Downcycle Shapes Come into Focus

Micron Ugly Free Fall Continues as Downcycle Shapes Come into Focus
by Robert Maire on 12-26-2022 at 6:00 am

Micron Crashing 2022

-Micron off the proverbial cliff and falling faster
-Looking at a much longer/deeper decline in memory
-Layoffs, capex cuts, slowdowns- battening down the hatches
-Micron seems to imply more of a “U” or “L” shaped downcycle

Micron’s numbers as bad as we expected And much worse than most on the

Read More

AMAT and Semitool Deja Vu all over again

AMAT and Semitool Deja Vu all over again
by Robert Maire on 11-24-2022 at 6:00 am

Lam SemiWiki SemiSysco

-Lam/Semisysco is a repeat of AMAT/Semitool
-Adds wet processing that larger companies lack
-Semisysco tools amazingly similar to those made by Semitool
-Lightning strikes twice for Ray Thompson

Deja Vu all over again

In a clear example of history repeating itself, Lam Research bought Semisysco, a company founded by Ray Thompson,… Read More