In our recent note sent several days ago we suggested that the China conflict would come back to haunt the US chip industry. From a stock perspective we suggested taking short term gains from a recent bounce back off the table. Both ideas turned out true, but way faster than we had thought! Not only have investors figured out that the… Read More
Author: Robert Maire
Could China Conflict Curtail Chip Comeback? Part 2
Could China Conflict Curtail Chip Comeback?
At the recent trade talks in South America, the US and China both kicked the can down the road as neither one were obviously willing to do a deal nor had done any background work to get a deal done. Instead we have a bunch of empty promises and vague and conflicting descriptions of what was not really even agreed to.
Essentially worthless… Read More
AMAT and the Jinhua Jinx!
Applied Materials reported a just “in line” quarter but guidance was well below street expectation. AMAT reported EPS of $0.97 and revenues of $4.01B versus street of $0.97 and $4B. Guidance missed the mark by a wide margin with revs of $3.56 to $3.86 and EPS of $0.75 to $0.83 versus already reduced street expectations… Read More
UMC the Next China Chip Embargo?
The DOJ last week released a previously sealed indictment against UMC, Jinhua and three individuals for stealing Micron trade secrets. The indictment is very damning of UMC with very specific semiconductor technology files that were stolen by UMC related people then passed on to Jinhua through its joint development with UMC.… Read More
Semiconductor stocks free fall as bad news gets worse
Semiconductor stocks have had another significant down leg as the bad news continues to pile on. Bad news in this case doesn’t come in threes , it comes in droves. TI is perhaps very scary news as it is a rather broad based supplier of semiconductors that has fared better than more pure play chip suppliers. TI gave weak guidance… Read More
ASML most immune to slow down due to lead times Not LRCX
ASML reported EUR2.78B in revenues with EUR2.08B in systems. 58% was for memory. EUV was EUR513M with 5 systems. Importantly orders were for EUR2.20B in systems at 64% memory and 5 EUV tools. This was likely better than expectations given the overall industry weakness. EPS of EUR1.60 was more or less in line with expectations. Guidance… Read More
The Shape of Semiconductor Things to Come
Given that the semiconductor industry is clearly in the midst of a down cycle (even though there are cycle deniers, also members of the flat earth society…), most investors and industry participants want to know the timing of the down cycle and the shape of the recovery as we want to know when its safe to buy the stocks again. … Read More
The real race for superiority is TSMC vs Intel
Recent talk of AMD vs Intel market share share is misguided, the real race for superiority is TSMC vs Intel underlying that, tech dominance between US & China.
There has been much discussion of late about market share between Intel and AMD and how much market share AMD will gain at Intel’s expense due to Intel’s very… Read More
More Negative Semiconductor News
The amount of negative news and information about the semiconductor industry seems to be increasing at a faster rate. Micron put up a better quarter than expected but more importantly guided less than expected. We are surprised that the street is surprised as the decline in memory pricing is well known and Micron has been clear about… Read More
Is the Q4 Bounce Back now a 2009 Recovery?
Last week saw a unique confluence of events that continue the negative news flow in semicap following the story about GloFo. At a financial conference, Micron’s CFO said NAND prices were declining, this was on top of an analyst note in the morning about the same issue. Even though this should be no surprise as memory has had … Read More
ASML- Soft revenues & Orders – But…China 49% – Memory Improving