Semiconductor China Syndrome Meltdown and Mayhem

Semiconductor China Syndrome Meltdown and Mayhem
by Robert Maire on 10-13-2022 at 6:00 am

The China Syndrome

-Commerce Dept drops a 100 page nuke on the Semi industry
-Many words but not a lot of clarity on exact impact
-Implementation & interpretation will be key to quantify impact
-It’s all bad, just a question of how bad

China is the industry’s biggest customer

We all know that China uses most of the world’s semiconductors… Read More


Does SMIC have 7nm and if so, what does it mean

Does SMIC have 7nm and if so, what does it mean
by Scotten Jones on 09-07-2022 at 10:00 am

SMIC 7nm

Recently TechInsights analyzed a Bitcoin Miner chip fabbed at SMIC and declared SMIC has a 7nm process. There has been some debate as to whether the SMIC process is really 7nm and what it means if it is 7nm. I wanted to discuss the case for and against the process being 7nm, and what I think it means.

First off, I want to say I am not going … Read More


SEMICON West the Calm Before Storm? CHIPS Act Hail Mary? Old China Embargo New Again?

SEMICON West the Calm Before Storm? CHIPS Act Hail Mary? Old China Embargo New Again?
by Robert Maire on 07-17-2022 at 6:00 am

SEMICON West 2022

-SEMICON good conference -No news but perceptibly nervous
-Memory chip warnings & memories of cycles past haunt us
-Can we turn the clock back 20+ years on China Chip Policy?
-Last ditch efforts on Chips for America before government vacation

SEMICON West Conference

Attendance at the show was good, better than last Decembers… Read More


Semiconductor Hard or Soft Landing? CHIPS Act?

Semiconductor Hard or Soft Landing? CHIPS Act?
by Robert Maire on 07-02-2022 at 6:00 am

Off the cliff without skidmarks

-Chip cycle will come down. Only question is landing impact
-What does cyclical end do to re-shoring & build out plans?
-Is it less demand, excess supply or both? Does it matter?
-CHIP Act rescue efforts get desperate switching to threats

Any landing you can walk away from is a good one

For those of us who have been in the semiconductor… Read More


 Semiconductor CapEx strong in 2021

 Semiconductor CapEx strong in 2021
by Bill Jewell on 06-23-2021 at 10:00 am

Semiconductor CAPEX spending versus change 2021

Semiconductor manufacturers are expanding capital spending in 2021 and beyond to help alleviate shortages. In addition, many governments around the world are proposing funding to support semiconductor manufacturing in their countries.

The United States Senate this month approved a bill which includes $52 billion to fund… Read More


Foundry Fantasy- Deja Vu or IDM 2?

Foundry Fantasy- Deja Vu or IDM 2?
by Robert Maire on 03-26-2021 at 8:00 am

Foundry Profit 2020

– Intel announced 2 new fabs & New Foundry Services
– Not only do they want to catch TSMC they want to beat them
– It’s a very, very tall order for a company that hasn’t executed
– It will require more than a makeover to get to IDM 2.0

Intel not only wants to catch TSMC but beat them at their own Read More


ASML – Strong DUV Throwback While EUV Slows- Logic Dominates Memory

ASML – Strong DUV Throwback While EUV Slows- Logic Dominates Memory
by Robert Maire on 01-24-2021 at 6:00 am

ASML SMIC TSMC EUV DUV

ASML has good quarter driven by DUV & Logic (@72%)
– SMIC & other major customer slow EUV plans
– Logic (read that as TSMC) remains key demand led driver
– We are happy memory remains muted given cyclical potential

A very solid quarter with a continued road to growth
The quarter came in at Euro4,254B… Read More


SMIC Blacklist puts ASML in Jam

SMIC Blacklist puts ASML in Jam
by Robert Maire on 12-20-2020 at 6:00 am

SMIC Blacklisted US

US BIS confirms our prediction of “blacklisting” SMIC
SMIC embargoed from 10NM or better technology
Likely related to ASML pressure & WH scorched earth

Not just the stock

We had received a lot of feedback on our Nov 30th note regarding blacklisting of SMIC suggesting that we were wrong and the only thing blacklisted… Read More


The Semiconductor Industry Has High Hopes That Biden Will Change Tracks

The Semiconductor Industry Has High Hopes That Biden Will Change Tracks
by Terry Daly on 12-13-2020 at 8:00 am

US China Semiconductor Biden

What is the “right track” for US-China trade relations?

The semiconductor industry has been squarely in the crosshairs of US-China trade tensions for four years. As the US faces a presidential leadership transition, will a Biden administration change the dynamic? The chip industry is counting on it, and China hopes so too.

In … Read More


Noose tightens on SMIC- Dead Fab Walking?

Noose tightens on SMIC- Dead Fab Walking?
by Robert Maire on 12-01-2020 at 6:00 am

SMIC US Embargo

-US Administration to “blacklist” SMIC- Cutting off ALL US help
-A slow death versus a quick death (unlike Jinhua)
-There is enough time on way out door to leave scorched earth
-Reports in the Media about SMIC being “Blacklisted”

It has been widely reported that SMIC will be added to the US “Blacklist”… Read More