KLAC same triple threat headwinds Supply, Economy & China

KLAC same triple threat headwinds Supply, Economy & China
by Robert Maire on 08-07-2022 at 10:00 am

KLA Tencor

-KLA sings same cautionary song as LRCX (with Intel Chorus)
-Sees similar softening of WFE & second half
-Same Government “notice” on China/14NM – Same supply ills
-We remain concerned about share loss in patterning

Deja Vue, all over again- Great QTR & Guide amid caution & softening

KLAC reported… Read More


LRCX – Great QTR and guide but gathering China storm

LRCX – Great QTR and guide but gathering China storm
by Robert Maire on 08-04-2022 at 10:00 am

Lam Research Headquarters

-Lam reports record QTR and great guide amid growing anxiety
-Weakness has not yet trickled down to Lam’s order book
-Company contacted by US government on new China restrictions
-Combination of supply issues/China/economy cut WFE view

Numbers are great

Lam reported revenues of $4.64B and EPS of $8.83 which represented… Read More


ASML- US Seeks to Halt DUV China Sales

ASML- US Seeks to Halt DUV China Sales
by Robert Maire on 07-10-2022 at 6:00 am

China Semiocnductor Ban DUV EUV

-If you can’t beat them, embargo them
-It has been reported US wants ASML to halt China DUV tools
-US obviously wants to kill, not just wound China chip biz
-Is this embargo the alternative to failed CHIPS act?
-Hard to say “do as I say, not as I do”- but US does anyway

First EUV ban now DUV ban? Are process & yieldRead More


Micron kicks off the down cycle – Chops 2023 capex – Holding inventory off street

Micron kicks off the down cycle – Chops 2023 capex – Holding inventory off street
by Robert Maire on 07-02-2022 at 10:00 am

Stock Crash 2022

-Micron reports weak outlook for fiscal Q4
-2023 capex to be down versus 2022 capex of $12B & Q3’s $2B
-Company keeping inventory off street to support pricing
-Memory is usually the first shoe to drop in a down cycle

Sharp drop in demand at end of Q3…..

Micron reported a sharp drop in demand at the end of its fiscal Q3,… Read More


Has KLA lost its way?

Has KLA lost its way?
by Robert Maire on 05-01-2022 at 6:00 am

KLA SPIE 2022

-KLA has another great QTR in face of overwhelming demand
-Supply chain issues obliterated by backlog
-Longer term technology leadership concerns are increasing
-We see limited upside near term & remain cyclically cautious

Another great quarter- demand remains super strong

KLA’s performance remains great as does… Read More


AMAT – Supply Constraints continue & Backlog Builds- Almost sold out for 2022

AMAT – Supply Constraints continue & Backlog Builds- Almost sold out for 2022
by Robert Maire on 02-20-2022 at 6:00 am

Applied Materials

-Production constraints push backlog up $1.3B to $8B
-Looks like $100B in WFE 2022 VS $80B in 2021
-Almost sold out for 2022- Could lead to continued growth 2023
-Insp/metrology up 68% Y/Y- Expect steady growth in 2022

Can’t keep up with demand….

Revenue came in at $6.27B and NonGAAP EPS of $1.89. A very slight beat of … Read More


KLAC- Great quarter and year – March Q is turning point of supply chain problem

KLAC- Great quarter and year – March Q is turning point of supply chain problem
by Robert Maire on 01-30-2022 at 10:00 am

KLAC Foundry Logic

-KLAC – great QTR & calendar year but supply chain impacted
-Management feels supply chain to improve after March Q
-Demand remains strong, driven by foundry/logic
-Process management is next best place in industry after litho

Great end to calendar year

KLA reported revenues of $2.53B with non GAAP EPS of $5.59 nicely… Read More


KLAC- Foundry/Logic Drives Outperformance- No Supply Chain Woes- Nice Beat

KLAC- Foundry/Logic Drives Outperformance- No Supply Chain Woes- Nice Beat
by Robert Maire on 11-04-2021 at 8:00 am

KLAC Tencor SemiWiki

KLA- great quarter driven by continued strong foundry/logic
No supply chain hiccups- Riding high in the cycle
Wafer inspection remains driver with rest along for the ride
Financials remain best in industry

A superb quarter
There was little to complain about in the quarter. Revenues of $2.1B and EPS of $4.64, both nicely beating… Read More


ASML early signs of an order Tsunami – Managing the ramp

ASML early signs of an order Tsunami – Managing the ramp
by Robert Maire on 04-27-2021 at 10:00 am

ASML Stock Price 2021

Taiwan and Korea represented 43% and 44% respectively with China at 15% and Japan and the US in the far distance.

ASML a tidal wave of orders

On the call management talked about logic potentially being up 30% in 2021 and memory being up potentially 50%. While we thing foundry/logic will clearly be on fir we think memory will lag a bit.… Read More


Will EUV take a Breather in 2021?

Will EUV take a Breather in 2021?
by Robert Maire on 02-07-2021 at 6:00 am

KLA EUV Slowdown

-KLAC- Solid QTR & Guide but flat 2021 outlook
-Display down & more memory mix
-KLAC has very solid Dec Qtr & guide but 2021 looks flattish
-Mix shift to memory doesn’t help- Display weakness
-Despite flat still looking at double digit growth
-EUV driven business may see some slowing from digestion

As always, … Read More