China didn’t wait around for the US to announce more tariffs or export restrictions, instead it went on the offensive and put an injunction in place to prevent Micron from shipping product into China. Although our view is that Micron will see little impact from this action, the headlines caused the semiconductor sector stocks… Read More
As we have been warning for months the China trade issue continues to grow and accelerate. As we are approaching the June 30th cliff (when export sanctions will be announced) it seems as if the administration has given the industry a kick so we fly even further. The US will also restrict Chinese investment in US tech companies. The … Read More
It appears the current cycle has rolled over? The reason is memory & could be worsened by trade Figuring out length, depth and impact of the downturn? We had said that AMAT “called” the top of the cycle on their last conference call even though they may not think so. Semiconductor cycles always ends the same way. The… Read More
We may know the top, do we know the bottom? What is the downside in NAND, DRAM, Foundry. Can China help or is risk worse than upside?
It would appear that our concerns in our preview piece prior to the AMAT call came true as the stock now has a “4” handle, NAND is in question and display is down.
However its not like business … Read More
“Puts & Takes” “Reduced NAND Expectations” 2019 to be down from 2018. Applied Materials reported a good quarter coming in at $1.22 EPS and $4.567B in revenues versus street of $1.14 and $4.45B.
However if we back out the buy back of 4% it would have been around $1.17 so a slight beat. Guidance was for … Read More
TSMC warns soft phone/crypto & flat capex!
Does this impact DRAM?
Can Intel keep Apple?
We love Tesla (Model 3)!… Read More
For Halloween this week we thought it would be appropriate to talk about things that strike fear into the hearts of semiconductor makers and process engineers toiling away in fabs. Do I want to do multi-patterning with the huge increase in complexity, number of steps, masks and tools or do I want to do EUV with unproven tools, unproven… Read More
Micron put up a great quarter beating both quarterly expectations and guidance. Even though the stock was up 8% and we still think it has a long way to go as investors have not fully embraced the upside ahead in the memory market.… Read More
Last week, TEL (which is the Japanese equivalent to AMAT & LRCX) reported a June quarter which saw revenues drop to 236B Yen from March’s 261B Yen and saw earnings drop from March’s 47B Yen to June’s 41B Yen, a respective 9.3% decrease and a 12.8% decrease in earnings.
We don’t think this is attributable… Read More
ASML reported results in line and slightly ahead of expectations which helped push ASML and the other semicap stocks back to their original valuations prior to the two step pull back that lasted about a month. We are now back to relatively high, record valuations not seen or ever seen previously (at least for a long time) by many companies.… Read More
