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ASML- better EPS but weaker revenues- 2024 recovery on track
China jumps 10% to 49%- Memory looking better @59% of orders
Order lumpiness increases with ASP- EUV will be up-DUV down
“Passing Bottom” of what has been a long down cycle
Weak revenues & orders but OK EPS
Reported revenue was Euro5.3B and EPS of Euro3.11… Read More
- Nvidia changing name to AISi (AI silicon) reflecting business focus
- Nvidia to buy PSI Quantum to combine AI & quantum efforts
- ASML to move to U.S. to reduce China & employee restrictions
- New Japanese consortia firms join Rapidus & IBM fab team
Nvidia renaming to reflect AI reality
Nvidia which is now clearly seen as … Read More
– High NA EUV’s coming out party – “Dawn” of the Angstrom Era
– Well attended, positive vibes, not much new but good progress
– Concerns about Samsung slowing spend while Intel accelerates
– KLA reticle inspection quandary – Risky business in China
SPIE was a High-NA
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– AMAT slightly better than expected, flat & guides flat but > expected
– Expects better 2024- Systems flat, service up, display down
– China risk remains high at 45%- $200M Sculpta expected in 2024
– HBM 5% of industry but not a lot of tool sales- but high growth
Still bumping along with flattish … Read More
– KLAC reported an OK QTR & flat guide-waiting for 2025 recovery?
– China exposure remains both risk & savior & big in backlog
– Wafer inspect strong- Patterning on long slide- PCB biz for sale
– Some bright spots but memory still weak- Foundry/Logic OK
Bumping along the bottom of the cycle
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– Lam reported as expected and guided flat- No recovery yet
– Some mix shifts but China still 40% (8X US at 5%)-NVM still low
– HBM is promising but Lam needs a broad memory recovery
– Lam has not seen order surge ASML saw- Likely lagging by 3-4 QTRs
An in line quarter and uninspiring flat guide for Q1
As compared… Read More
– ASML orders more than triple sequentially- Utilization increases
– Management remains conservative with flat revenues 2024 vs 2023
– Recovery will be slow, targeting 2025- Long & weak cyclical bottom
– Litho orders are leading indicator of future wider recovery
Strong orders pave the way for
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- What kind of recovery do we expect, if any, after 2 down years?
- What impact will China have on the recovery of mature market chips?
- What will memory recovery look like? Will we return to stupid spend?
- Stock selection ever more critical in tepid recovery
Chip stocks have rocketed but the industry itself, not so much, “Anticipation….is
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- Reports suggest Intel will get 6 of 10 ASML High NA tools in 2024
- Would give Intel a huge head start over TSMC & Samsung
- A big gamble but a potentially huge pay off
- Does this mean $4B in High NA tool sales for ASML in 2024?
News suggests Intel will get 6 of first 10 High NA tools made by ASML in 2024
An industry news source, Trendforce, reports… Read More
– News that AMAT facing criminal charges for violating China sanctions
– Sounds like Ion implant tools sent to SMIC in China via South Korea
– Criminal probe goes back to shipments starting in 2021 & 2022
– Overshadows an otherwise OK quarter and outlook
Reuters broke the news on the day of earnings
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TSMC Brings Packaging Center Stage with Silicon