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Nice house in a neighborhood in decline
Lam posted EPS and revenues ahead of reduced expectations, but guided the current quarter below street current estimates.
Is a “beat” really a “beat” if its against greatly reduced numbers? We would remind investors that we are looking at EPS cut more or less in … Read More
A “Logic Lead” recovery confirmed- Memory still mired, 3400C = “Third times a charm”. EUV finally accelerates as all ducks now in a row.
ASML posted a good quarter with great orders and capped off with a strong outlook for the current quarter. Logic demand is sparking a recovery while memory remains essentially… Read More
Bouncing along a not too bad bottom
Given that we have followed the semiconductor industry through many down cycles, we can safely say that this one isn’t all that bad by comparison. Everyone, big & small, is still safely profitable and in relatively good shape. Though we are seeing the normal week long holiday shut downs
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2020 capex likely down at least 20% vs 2019 DRAM & NAND price drops versus slowing capacity. Investors happy cause it could have been worse.
Micron reported $1.05 in Non-GAAP EPS beating street consensus of $0.79 by $0.26. While this looks like a big beat, we would remind investors that estimates for the quarter were about… Read More
We had warned in our May 10th note about the rare earth element risk. It is one of the few remaining leverage points that China has left that has a potentially strong impact on the US much similar to the US’s impact on Huawei and perhaps even worse. Cutting the US off from rare earth elements is clearly worse than cutting Huawei
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Last week we warned of a further down leg due to China trade. We were surprised how quickly our prediction came true as it appears we are now in the midst of giving back all the upside built in to stocks based on a peaceful resolution of the trade conflict which obviously isn’t happening.
Many of the semi stocks we cover were down… Read More
We have been very vocal and perhaps the first to warn of the risks to the semiconductor and semiconductor equipment industry from the China trade war with the US. It seems that the war is now fully upon us with the imposition of 25% tariffs by the US and promised retribution by China. The semiconductor industry is at the leading edge … Read More
Nice numbers despite the cycle bottom
KLA put up EPS of $1.80 versus street of $1.67 on revenues of $1.097B versus street of $1.08B. However guidance was weaker than the street was hoping for with a range of $1.21B to $1.29B in revenues generating between $1.55 and $1.85 in non GAAP EPS. This is compared to current street estimates … Read More
It was the best of times (for stocks)
It was the worst of times (for memory chips)
The disconnect between stock & chip prices
The Venn Diagram of Stocks and Chips
Having been involved with semiconductor and tech stocks for a long time there has always been a loose correlation between the fortunes of the industry and the fortunes… Read More
The Dutch financial newspaper Financieele Dagblad (FD) reported on the past theft of ASML technology after doing some investigative digging. It now appears that a number of Chinese nationals and ASML employees, in ASML’s Santa Clara office stole key technology back in 2015. Though ASML talked about it at the time, little… Read More
Unlocking the cloud: A new era for post-tapeout flow for semiconductor manufacturing