I love SPICE and Fast SPICE circuit simulators, so here’s my feature list for the ultimate SPICE circuit simulator:
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What would you like to see in the ultimate SPICE circuit simulator?
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The Ultimate SPICE Circuit Simulator
SemiWiki vBlog Test
The Future of Semiconductor Design!
Is EDA still an appropriate term for what we do? What applications will drive future semiconductor design innovation? Will further consolidation be required for EDA to thrive again? They are all good questions, questions that will hopefully be properly addressed at the EDAC CEO Forecast and Industry Vision event next week but here are my thoughts:
Is EDA still an appropriate term for what we do? According to the most recent press releases:
Synopsys, Inc. (Nasdaq: SNPS), a world leader in software and IP for semiconductor design, verification and manufacturing, today announced……
Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CDNS), a global leader in electronic design innovation….
Mentor Graphics Corporation (NASDAQ: MENT) is a world leader in electronic hardware and software design solutions………
Magma® Design Automation Inc. (Nasdaq:LAVA), a provider of chip design software…..
Not that EDA companies ever called themselves EDA companies in print, but I do see a disconnect here. One of the things I do for a living is provide background information to semiconductor industry investors. The foundries and their top customers are of BIG INTEREST, EDA and IP not so much. I have even conference called with analysts who have JUST attended EDA CEO presentations and they still don’t see the value in EDA. If you want to know the number one problem with EDA, that is it, communication. We really suck at it.
What applications will drive future semiconductor design? That should be obvious after Christmas, EMBEDDED SYSTEMS! We got a new minivan for Christmas and you would not believe the electronics packages that are available today. Seriously, it’s like piloting a space shuttle. There has to be dozens of microprocessors and sensors embedded into this vehicle. Video cameras, collision avoidance, satellite, GPS, split screen DVD, electric doors, and disappearing seats just to name a few. Seriously, you push a button and the back seat automatically folds into the floor. The manual for this vehicle is hundreds of pages, hopefully one of my kids will read it someday.
Currently embedded systems account for $200B+ of the $300B+ semiconductor revenues. That is if we can agree that an “embedded system” is an electronic device with a special purpose processor, including smartphones. The other $100B+ has general purpose processors driving them. Future semiconductor growth will come from the embedded side for sure.
Will further consolidation be required for EDA to thrive again?Yes of course, I think we can all agree on that. My biggest concern however is the lack of EDA and IP start-ups. You will be hard pressed to find investors for semiconductor design. The top EDA companies are not helping much either. Remember when EDA partner programs were open? How about when the top EDA companies had incubators and VC funds? If the top EDA companies spent half as much time nurturing emerging companies as they do trying to kill them we would all be better off.
Here’s the irony on the investment side, VC’s are spending billions of dollars on Facebook, Twitter, Zynga, and other mindless applications, but when it comes to the tools and IP that build the platforms? Pffft. How about when Google, Apple, and/or Oracle start buying ARM, Synopsys, and the other key semiconductor enablers? That will shake things up a bit and maybe we will remember where we all came from, START-UPS!
Semiconductor and EDA Forecasts 2011 / 2012
Of course these are rolling forecasts which means they change every month, until they get them right. The missing forecaster here is Mike Cowen, developer of the Cowan LRA Model which forecasts global semiconductor sales. Mike has 2011 at a hilarious 2.3%! Below are the mid year market forecasts which were revised significantly from the January 2010 forecasts.
Creds to David Manners for digging up the January 2010 Forecasts:
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It seems that the more “official” the forecasters the more “inaccurate” the forecasts, with Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) and the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) coming in last.
Record high year-end revenue and the anticipated double-digit growth next year is pushing semiconductor and the surrounding ecosystem stocks to 52-week highs. Shares of TSMC (TSM) are at an eight-year high with Morris Chang’s conservative 2011 prediction of growth @ 14%, I expect them to go even higher. In my somewhat expert opinion, TSMC will follow this year’s record 45% revenue increase with an even more incredible 20% in 2011, believe it.
For those people who doubt the semiconductor market next year I truly wonder if they are living in the modern semiconductor society. Personally, my family and I are surrounded by silicon. Our appliances are now smarter than we are. It never ceases to amuse me when my refrigerator tells my kids to shut the door. My kids are counting the days on their two year contracts so they can get a new phone with more features and better battery life. How much silicon is under your Christmas tree? Who isn’t getting a Tablet or Kindle for Christmas?
In regards to Electronic Design Automation, I see great things coming as well and am looking forward to the EDA Consortium Annual CEO Forecast and Industry Vision. Communication is a challenge in all aspects of our lives and communication between EDA vendors, customers, and the foundries is now the most dysfunctional I have seen in years. To improve communications, EDA Vendors are finally investing in Social Media, unfortunately they are failing at it. By definition, Social Media uses web-based technologies to turn communication into interactive dialogues. The standard EDA communications paradigm: “If you say something over and over it will be true” will not work with Social Media. It is also known as “drinking your own bath water” which promotes delusional behavior, believing one’s own misconceptions.
Beginning in January REAL Social Media will come to the semiconductor design ecosystem (EDA, IP, Foundry) and it will start with the EDAC CEO event. If you have not registered I strongly suggest you do so today (here). You definitely will not want to miss it!
Mentor – Cadence Merger and the Federal Trade Commission
More consolidation is coming to EDA and so is the Federal Trade Commission. Corporate raider Carl Ichan owns 15% of Mentor Graphics and now owns 1% of Cadence. Ichan buddy multi billionaire George Soros, a long time CDNS investor, just purchased more than 76 million convertible notes of MENT.You do the math…
Unfortunately the FTC will have the last word on a Cadence – Mentor merger and they are already sniffing around. One of the benefits of being an “Internationally Recognized Industry Blogger” is the many emails and phones calls I get asking for background information on the foundries, fabless, EDA, and IP companies. One of the briefest calls was from theFederal Trade Commission Bureau of Competition.Brief because it was lunch time and he was calling from a (202) area code (I blog for food).
For those of us who remember, Cadence launched a hostile $1.6B bid for Mentor back in 2008. It was Cadence CEO Mike Fister’s last desperate plea for attention before golden parachuting out of EDA. Not that it was a bad idea, but it was certainly poorly executed. Okay it was also a bad idea. I stand by my previous blog, Mentor should buy Magmaand give Synopsys a real fight. It’s good for Mentor, it’s good for Magma, it’s good for EDA.
Not that a potential EDA mega merger is the only reason for the FTC to be interested in EDA. Now that the 3 big EDA dogs own 90% of the market, it certainly is possible they are not fairly competing with the other 100+ EDA and IP puppies trying to get a look at the food bowl. This of course would be incredibly short sighted as EDA does not grow organically. EDA, from the beginning of time, has always grown inorganically through acquisitions of the best and brightest. Sometimes these guys are acquired multiple times as innovators generally work in small numbers and out of the spot light.
Even though investors have left EDA, Semi IP, and even the fabless semiconductor market, there are dozens of start-ups in Silicon Valley and around the world. We do what we do, however we can do it. Getting these products to market, however, is still the biggest challenge. We are point tool girls and this is a point tool world and without the support or even the tolerance of the big 3 EDA companies our innovation will never survive in the mainstream semiconductor design ecosystem.
An easy example is the Cadence Virtuoso dynasty. There are literally dozens of point tools that plug into Virtuoso offering value above and beyond what Cadence can offer. These tools can and are being kept out of the Virtuoso flow by Cadence product managers if there is the least amount of overlap or perceived competition. So rather than open Virtuoso up and leverage the collaborative innovation of the masses, Virtuoso stays closed, protected, and starving for outside influences. Remember, EDA does not grow organically so this protectionist behavior will ensure that our bowl of food will never grow. EDA can quickly become a lifestyle industry, an industry with the sole purpose of supporting the lifestyles of the people controlling it, if it hasn’t already.
Webinar on Accelerating Analog Layout Productivity
MONROVIA, California – December 7, 2010 – With pressure to reduce time to market and with resources increasingly constrained, tools that can enable maximum productivity for analog and mixed-signal design are mission-critical. Tanner EDA, the catalyst for innovation for the design, layout and verification of analog and mixed-signal ICs, is holding two free webinars in December on using HiPer DevGen, the newest addition to the company’s tool portfolio, to help designers improve device and structure generation for increased layout productivity.
HiPer DevGen (High Performance Device Generator) integrates seamlessly with Tanner EDA’s widely-installed layout editor (L-Edit) and provides unparalleled productivity gains. In the December webinars, a Tanner EDA product manager will be driving the tool for a live demonstration. You will see first-hand how to reduce weeks of design time into minutes using HiPer DevGen for current mirrors, differential pairs, and/or resistor arrays in your analog designs.
- Register NowDec 14, 2010 – 2:00-3:00 pm PDT – HiPer DevGen webinar
- Register NowDec 16, 2010 – 8:00-9:00am PDT – HiPer DevGen webinar
For a 30-day free trial of Tanner tools to see for yourself the benefits of HiPer DevGen, click here
Click to watch a video demonstration of HiPer DevGen layout acceleration or to download the HiPer DevGen whitepaper
About Tanner EDA
Tanner EDA provides a complete line of software solutionsthat catalyze innovation for the design, layout and verification of analog and mixed-signal (A/MS) integrated circuits (ICs) and MEMS. Customersare creating breakthrough applications in areas such as power management, displays and imaging, automotive, consumer electronics, life sciences, and RF devices. A low learning curve, high interoperability, and a powerful user interface improve design team productivity and enable a low total cost of ownership (TCO). Capability and performance are matched by low support requirements and high support capability as well as an ecosystem of partners that bring advanced capabilities to A/MS designs.
Founded in 1988, Tanner EDA solutions deliver just the right mixture of features, functionality and usability. The company has shipped over 33,000 licenses of its software to more than 5,000 customers in 67 countries.
HiPer DevGen and L-Edit are trademarks of Tanner Research, Inc.
All other trademarks and trade names are the property of their respective owners.
TSMC vs GlobalFoundries IBM Samsung
GlobalFoundries has brought the Common Platform Alliance back from the dead!?!?!?! Good thing too as it is probably their most comprehensive weapon against TSMC and answers the single biggest question customers have at 28nm and that is; Will there be enough CAPACITY?
The Common Platform technology alliance hosted its first-ever Technology Forum on Tuesday, November 6, 2007 at the Santa Clara Convention center. I was there, the food was pretty good. No airline box lunch, this was a regular three course sit down meal.
The mission statement back then was:
IBM, Chartered and Samsung Electronics have broken new ground in the semiconductor industry with a unique collaboration focused on leading-edge, jointly developed digital CMOS process technologies and advanced manufacturing. The Common Platform model is further supported by a comprehensive ecosystem of design enablement and implementation partners from the EDA, IP and design services industries. This ecosystem allows foundry customers to source their chip designs to multiple 300mm foundries with minimal design work, unprecedented flexibility and choice. The Common Platform model features 90nm, 65nm, 45nm and 32nm technologies.
Unfortunately it did NOT quite happen that way. The ONLY reason why fabless semiconductor companies were able to manufacture the same design in second (UMC), third (Chartered Semiconductor), and fourth (SMIC) source fabs at 130nm, 90nm, 65nm, and 40nm is because they all were “compatible” with TSMC. Artisan Components (ARM) enabled this wave of multisourcing by porting the physical IP they developed for TSMC to the other fabs.
Here is the Common Platform mission statement for 2011:
IBM, Samsung and GLOBALFOUNDRIES are members of the Common Platform alliance focusing on leading-edge, jointly developed digital CMOS process technologies and advanced manufacturing. The Common Platform model is further supported by a comprehensive ecosystem of design enablement and implementation partners from the EDA, IP and design services industries. This ecosystem allows foundry customers to source their chip designs to multiple 300mm foundries with minimal design work, unprecedented flexibility and choice.
If in fact Common Platform can enable this 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] and 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] sourcing at 28nm and below it will give the top fabless semiconductor companies the perceived capacity they need to be successful. Samsung is the capacity wild card here and is really the only company strong enough in capitol ANDtechnology to challenge TSMC, so this is a big fat hairy deal.
You can register for the Common Platform Technology Forum here. I would register quickly as the 2,000 seats will sell out well before the doors open. Here is the formal invite:
Tomorrow’s Technology – Delivered Today
The Common Platform Alliance of IBM, Samsung and GLOBALFOUNDRIES invites you join us at our technology forum on Tuesday, January 18. This free, daylong event will feature the Common Platform’s innovative collaboration to deliver industry-leading technology that breaks new ground in performance and power efficiency for the 32/28nm technology nodes and beyond.
The technology forum features keynotes from industry leaders and presentations from senior members of the Common Platform partners. Topics include:
- Technical advancements of the innovative 32/28nm low-power high-k metal gate (HKMG) process technology optimized for the next generation of communications and smart mobile devices
- Technology innovations in SoC enablement solutions, materials science, process technology and manufacturing
- Proven design and manufacturing solutions from the alliance and its ecosystem partners
- The invention process and technology roadmap to 20nm and beyond
A key part of the forum will focus on collaboration for technology delivery, highlighting the rich and broad ecosystem of design enablement and implementation partners through a Partner Pavilion featuring leading EDA, IP, library, mask, back-end and design services companies.
Mark your calendar for this complementary one-day technical event!
This is a special advance invitation. Please register early as seating is limited.
Common Platform Alliance
www.commonplatform.com
Intel versus ARM (Linaro)
More than 2,500 companies will be exhibiting and more than 120,000 people will be attending the next Consumer Electronics Show(CES) and it is an easy bet that ARM processors will dominate the show yet again. In fact, my money is on ARM to dominate future generations of computing platforms (smartphones) due in large part to one simple word…… Linaro!
Video of the Linaro launch can be seen here, it is definitely worth 10 minutes of your time. ARM is partnering with IBM, Samsung, Texas Instruments, Freescale, ST-Ericsson, and others on this semi open source Initiative, NOT INTEL, NOT APPLE. I say semi open because today Linaro only supports ARM processors.
Linaro is the software stack (kernel, multimedia, power management, graphics and security) that sits between the SoC and the apps. As we hear over and over from the EDA360 cheerleaders, software is the fastest growing SoC development cost, software engineers outnumber hardware engineers by a factor of whatever. Linaro will provide stable, optimized and tested tools and code for multiple software distributions and will significantly reduce the cost of SoC software development.
The other thing that you have to consider is business models. The processor wars are no longer chip battles in the trenches with billion dollar fabs and margin eating multi tiered distribution channels (Intel vs AMD). The processor wars are now fought online with IP downloads and royalty licensing agreements, SoC designs and pure-play foundry partners. Simply stated: Intel is a vinyl record company and ARM is iTunes.
When I started in the computer industry in the 1980’s minicomputers from Digital Equipment Corporation and Data General destroyed the mainframe world. Workstations from Sun Microsystems then destroyed minicomputers. More recently, personal computers replaced workstations, and now smartphones and tablets are replacing PCs. Open systems software played a key part in the most recent transitions, Linux, then Android, and now Linaro.
ARM is celebrating 20 years of innovation this month and has “shipped” more than 20 billion ARM-powered processors. Another 100 billion are expected to ship in half that time. Meanwhile, rather than opening up the Intel architecture willingly, Intel is battling the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and losing but also winning:
The Federal Trade Commission approved a settlement with Intel Corp. that resolves charges the company illegally stifled competition in the market for computer chips. Intel has agreed to provisions that will open the door to renewed competition and prevent Intel from suppressing competition in the future.
The formal FTC press release can be found here. Unfortunately Intel was allowed to profit from past discretions (no fines) so there is little incentive for Intel to correct its corporate culture of innovation stifling behavior. Let’s hope ARM/Linaro and theOpen Systems market makes the correction for Intel, like Linux and Ubuntu have done for Microsoft, and Android is doing for Apple.
This year’s notable CES keynote speakers include Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, Verizon CEO Ivan Seidenberg, Cisco CEO John Chambers, GE Chairman Jeffrey Immelt and a few others. As exciting as all of this sounds it will probably be easier to find me at the poker tables or by the Bellagio pool bar.
Tanner EDA Then and Now
Looking back at an early issue of a Tanner Research newsletter, “Tanner Tools News”, from the mid-1990s, the theme at that time was growth, just as it is again now for Tanner EDA. At that time we were averaging 66% revenue growth per year, enjoying rapid growth as a small start-up. Fast-forward to current day, where we just closed our fiscal year 2010 as a record for the company, with fourth quarter revenue being the best in our history and May 2010 representing our strongest month ever!
Back in the mid-90s, the majority of our users were running on DOS, just beginning to switch over to Windows. Today, the majority of our users are on the Windows platform and we now offer the software for Linux as well. The mid-90s saw us touting version 1.0 for many of our products while most recently we launched v15.02 of our full flow tool suite. Back then, we boasted an installed base of 3,000 seats while presently we have 33,000 worldwide. Steady, well-managed organic growth has brought us a long way and many things have changed, but we pledge to sustain the same core values that made us successful then and continue to do so now.
Tanner’s first product, L-Edit, was launched in 1988 in response to a market need for cost-effective and easy-to-use EDA tools that would give engineers the performance and flexibility to handle complex design flows and help speed their design concept to silicon. Today we maintain a reputation for high quality, strong price performance, and the intuitiveness of our tools, allowing us to serve the analog design needs of the independent analog designer and the large corporation alike. And in 2010 we continue to stay on top of market trends and demands and to drive analog innovation.
At Tanner EDA, we promise the same thing today as we did back then, which is that we are dedicated to supporting, maintaining, and enhancing the products that you have purchased and to creating powerful new tools to aid in the complex IC design challenges that lay ahead. And, as we grow, we will continue to remain focused on doing so in a fiscally responsible manner.
– Dr. John Tanner, Founder & CEO
Mentor Acquires Magma?
**This blog was written a year ago. Several people emailed me last week saying Mentor is trying for Magma again so I thought I would run it again to see what we can find out!D.A.N. 11/21/2011
“I believe that within five years only two EDA companies will survive,” said Magma Design Automation Rajeev Madhavan (Silicom Ventures LLC international summit June 2008) “We will therefore be one of these two big companies, or we will have been bought by one of them,” he added.”
Clearly Magma will not be one of the two or even three big EDA companies in the next two and a half years so who will acquire them? My blog has been hit with quite a few “Mentor acquire Magma” and “Cadence Acquire Magma” search terms lately thus the blog. I have also seen some “Apache IPO” and “Apache being acquired” searches, fodder for future blogs for sure. One prediction Rajeev did make during that 2008 interview has definitely come true:
Madhavan concluded, “In a few years, hardware groups will be much smaller than software groups. We’ll see software becoming easier to work with and more involved in the hardware side. Software and chip design from the hardware side will be one unit and not separate ones.”
This fits with the EDA360 vision which Magma has yet to respond to or take action on, which is a mistake. The integration of software and semiconductor design is already taking place inside Mentor, Synopsys, and Cadence so Magma is the only EDA company that is not preparing for this. Instead, Magma is still trying to beat the three big dogs to the $4B bowl of food we call EDA.
In a more recent interview (Notes From Magma Design’s 2010 Shareholder Meeting) Rajeev stated that “Cadence is weakest in [its] technology” and doesn’t offer the “best of anything [in its market].” This of course is not true. With 88%+ market share, Cadence owns the AMS market (Virtuoso Dynasty) which is key to mobile electronics (smartphones / tablets), the current driver of the semiconductor market. The acquisition discussions between Cadence and Magma must not be going well?!?!?!
When asked about Synopsys, Rajeev gave a soft answer which could be a fallout from the legal challenges with Synopsys a while back. Synopsys is “strongest in terms of numbers” and its balance sheet, and Magma “must continue to differentiate” its own products to compete with Synopsys’ products. In addition to the legal history, I do not see a product fit between Synopsys and Magma so no acquisition possibilities here.
No comment from Rajeev on Mentor which could support the rumors of acquisition discussions. The company cultures are the farthest thing from a match you will ever see but the product match is good. Mentor acquiring Magma would be comparable to the Synopsys acquisition of Avant!, all product and no executives.
Speaking of Avant!, Gerry Hsu is my new neighbor and of course controversy follows him to Danville: Plan For Large Home Creates Concerns with Danville’s Design Review Board and Residents. Lets hope the FBI doesn’t raid us again.
Upon acquiring Magma, Mentor would get a competitive Digital, AMS, and Fast SPICE product. Mentor would also get rid of the Magma DRC product (Quartz) that frequently undercuts the Mentor Calibre dynasty. Mentor had a great quarter, you can see the transcripthere. Infamous corporate raider Carl Ichan now owns 15% of Mentor and Carl knows how to do acquisitions. It would be good for Mentor and great for EDA, lets hope it happens.