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Russian Silicon Valley

Russian Silicon Valley
by Daniel Nenni on 11-14-2010 at 6:22 pm

In case you missed it, last June Dmitry Medvedev (the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] President of Russia) visited Northern California to better understand and hopefully replicate the success of Silicon Valley in Russia. Last month Governor Schwarzenegger returned the favor by visiting Moscow with a delegate of Silicon Valley business leaders and venture capitalists. My trip to Russia last week had nothing to do with any of this but that will not stop me from implying that it did.

Moscow is a long trip from San Francisco especially when you are flying United Airlines. Bad food, bad service, bad seating, it has been a while since I have flown UAL and hopefully it will be a long time before I do it again. The only upside is that the United flight crew made me look young!

In case you missed it, last June Dmitry Medvedev (the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] President of Russia) visited Northern California to better understand and hopefully replicate the success of Silicon Valley in Russia. Last month Governor Schwarzenegger returned the favor by visiting Moscow with a delegate of Silicon Valley business leaders and venture capitalists. My trip to Russia last week had nothing to do with any of this but that will not stop me from implying that it did.

Moscow is a long trip from San Francisco especially when you are flying United Airlines. Bad food, bad service, bad seating, it has been a while since I have flown UAL and hopefully it will be a long time before I do it again. The only upside is that the United flight crew made me look young!

Russia already has a “Silicon Valley” by the way, which is in Zelenongrad and that is where I stayed. Zelenongrad is the home of the Moscow Institute of Electronic Technologies (MIET), one of leading microelectronics research universities, and two semiconductor fabs (I toured Mikron). The new Russian Silicon Valley that President Medvedev is championing is located in Skolkovo and will be appropriately named The Skolkovo Innovation Center. Silicon Valley has had many rivals inside and outside the United States none of which have really lived up to the name. So why would Skolkovo be any different? Can Russia really be a technology superpower? Absolutely!

Witnessing the first snow fall in Moscow was entertaining. They call it “repairman day” (loosely translated), which means the auto body shops get lots of business. To make things worse, if you get in an accident in Russia you cannot move your car until the police or insurance investigators arrive to take a report. This certainly deters fraud but it also causes traffic jams that take hours to clear. Luckily I had a driver that knew the back roads and was not shy about it so car travel was not a problem.

President Medvedev’s strategy is simple: As Russia transforms from a raw materials economy to a technology based economy the semiconductor industry will provide the platform for a broad base of applications. The semiconductor industry is the core of modernization which is key to infrastructure restoration. The potential of the Russian market is defined by the population size (140M+), the total acreage (Russia is the largest country in the world), and the current geopolitical positioning of Prime Minister Putin and President Medvedev. The result being explosive growth potential for the Russian semiconductor industry!

The trip ended with a tour of Moscow, a delicious Russian dinner, and shots of vodka. The only downside to the trip is that cigarette smoking runs rampant in Russia. This will not only stunt economic growth, it will also place an unnecessary burden on the already fragile Russian health care system. The flight home was uneventful except for a minor flight delay and a beautiful Russian woman that sat next to me. Travel tip: To minimize jet lag do not eat airline food, drink a bottle or two of water, and sit next to a beautiful Russian woman. Believe it!


TSMC Versus Intel?

TSMC Versus Intel?
by Daniel Nenni on 11-07-2010 at 7:18 pm


The big announcement last week was Intel opening up its 22nm manufacturing facilities to an outside company. Even better it’s an FPGA company. There are literally hundreds of write ups on this landmark event so it is definitely blog worthy. But what does it really mean? I have read (5) possibilities:

(1) Intel enters the FPGA business
(2) Intel enters the foundry business
(3) Intel ramps advanced processes with FPGA technology
(4) Intel adds FPGA muscle to Atom
(5) Intel wants Achronix asynchronous logic IP

EETimes actually did a nice write-up here, so I will skip the press release stuff and get right to my personal experience and expert opinion:

Intel entering the FPGA business (again)?Starting from zero (Achronix) in a highly competitive market that relies on a multi tiered sales channel, silicon proven IP, and free design software? I don’t think so. I worked for an FPGA start-up (Gatefield, bought by Atcel) and can tell you, competing against Altera/Xilinx is your worst nightmare. These people are design win commandos and will stop at nothing to win a socket. GateField had a 2x density advantage and was also an ASIC replacement (used standard design tools) but didn’t have a chance against the FPGA cartels. Neither did Actel and the dozen other FPGA start-ups that have since failed. After spending 2 years searching Northern California for design starts with ARC, eSilicon, and Virage, after identifying 500+ companies and profiling their application and design ecosystem, I did not find a single Achronix Speedster 22i customer. And just so you know, eSillicon did the silicon implementation of the flagship TSMC 65nm version of Speedster not Achronix.

Intel entering the foundry business? This would be more of an “Intel Versus Samsung” thing since both are pure-play semiconductor foundry posers. Intel has been dabbling in the foundry/ASIC business for years so this is not big news. Today, Intel is run by bean counters who would be best advised to focus on the high margin microprocessor business before ARM bakes their beans. Android is ARM based and between Android phones and tablets the PC/laptop business faces extinction! Now if Intel offered special foundry services for Atom based designs that would be interesting.

Intel ramps advanced processes with FPGA technology? This is entirely possible but certainly not a big enough gain to justify the risk/expense. TSMC uses Altera to ramp processes, FPGA companies are always first to a node and the repetitive structures they use work well for this. SRAM is used for the same purpose which is one of the reasons why the IP guys see new processes up close and personal.

Intel adds FPGA muscle to Atom?
Not likely. ARM is partners with Altera and Xilinx so Intel should do the same. Installed base of customers means everything for this strategy to work.

Intel wants Achronix asynchronous logic IP. This is believable. An FPGA friend of mine explained this to me and it made complete sense. Unfortunately it was very long winded and uber technical (this guy is from UC Berkley) so I could never do it justice, so I will leave it at that.

But this is all just false paths to throw the mainstream media off the track. The REAL reason Intel made this announcement:

A CHEAP SHOT AT AMD / GLOBALFOUNDRIES!

Intel is clearly feeling the heat from AMD, especially with the integrated CPU/GPU Llano chip coming out of the GlobalFoundries Dresden fab. Llano, the world’s first quad-core microprocessor with integrated DirectX 11 graphics processor, is made using 32nm silicon-on-insulator process technology with high-K metal gate (HKMG). Llano competes with Intel Corp’s much anticipated Sandy Bridge integrated microprocessor. Intel can be petty at times and this is one of those times, believe it!


Computational Lithography, Scaling’s Best Friend

Computational Lithography, Scaling’s Best Friend
by glforte on 11-03-2010 at 11:51 pm

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By Joseph Sawicki, Vice President & General Manager, Design to Silicon Division

It is one of the more amazing stories in the continued march of Moore’s Law over the past four nodes. Previously scaling was enabled solely though changes in the physical domain, whether through decreasing the wavelength of light, increasing the numerical aperture, or producing chemically amplified resists. Starting at 180 nm software has become a critical driver of scaling. The discipline of Computational Lithography (CL) combines software architecture and high performance computing, with modeling of the scanner, resist and etch process, into a system that can correct for the deficiencies of the physical domain by correcting the shapes on the mask.

As a measure of how far this discipline has come, it is interesting to look at the processing necessary to implement this correction in an advanced node. Current estimates for the 28nm node show the need for about ten teraflops of sustained performance for about 24 hours in order to correct a single critical layer. To put this in perspective, the top computer on the world TOP500 Supercomputer Sites list (www.top500.org) did not hit this level until 2002! Key to this innovation was work in the area of high performance computing to allow standard computers connected through an Ethernet backplane to be combined effectively to solve this problem. What is particularly stunning is that we can achieve this performance level using just 800 CPU cores.

Continued scaling in the absence of EUV will require continued innovation in CL. Techniques for managing double patterning, double dipole lithography, model-based Sub-Resolution Assist Features and optimized illuminators are all in late development or deployment stages today.

The most aggressive development efforts in CL are in the area of Source Mask Optimization. Here the concept is to go beyond modifications in the mask alone, instead co-optimizing the illuminator and mask on a per-design basis. Doing so has the potential to significantly increase the process window available with a 193nm scanner, and could be used to extend optical lithography to the 16nm node.

EUV has been tomorrow’s technology for quite some time now. First thought of as a replacement for 193nm at the 90nm node, its deployment remains a controversial topic. Though there are still some supporters who position EUV as the solution for the 22/20 node, many now believe that continued development issues will delay EUV until the 16/14 nanometer timeframe.

While some commentators also see EUV as a replacement for CL, the delay in EUV’s development ensures that this is not the case. Just looking at K1 (from Rayleigh’s equation: Resolution = K1*λ/NA) will help to understand why this impression is false. Back at the 90nm node, K1 was approximately 0.55 for critical layers and model-based OPC was a necessity. At the 16nm node, K1 for EUV on a critical layer will be even less at 0.47, assuming an NA of 0.25, indicating the continued necessity of CL.

However, K1 alone does not tell the whole story. EUV also has distortions driven by two long range effects: flare and mask shadowing. Capable of driving a total variability across the reticle field of greater than 10nm, these effects will need compensation in order to produce the CD uniformity necessary for successful scaling.

“The End Of,” makes for a very popular headline, and we’ve seen any number of these headlines spoken about semiconductor manufacturing over the years. I’m old enough to remember when it was clear to all that sub-micron manufacturing would never be done. What is clear is that the economics of scaling is a very powerful driver for innovation, affecting the behavior of thousands of engineers and driving significant corporate investment. At some point “The End Of” will come, after all it is difficult to imagine a gate smaller than one atom across. Until then, continued developments in Computational Lithography will help enable scaling for a number of nodes to come.


Mobile 2Drive Semi 4Ever!

Mobile 2Drive Semi 4Ever!
by Daniel Nenni on 10-30-2010 at 12:07 am

In case you didn’t notice, TSMC’s communications revenue jumped 22% last quarter for a total revenue share of 42%, and that is just the tip of the iceberg for mobile internet. According to the global marketing research company Nielsen, double digit mobile internet adoption rates are the new normal and will continue to be so in the years to come. Only one out of six mobile devices in my family are smartphones, that is of course if you consider a four year old Blackberry smart.

I would not consider my family technologically average as I have been a closet computer geek since high school. A Commodore Pet was my first computer and I have had the latest and greatest PC on my desk/lap ever since. In regards to mobile internet however, we have been somewhat behind the curve due to my boycott of Apple products. I’ve stuck with Blackberry even though I dream of iPhones and I will wait for an Android tablet. As I have blogged before, Apple is the Open Standards Antichrist and I will have no part of it!

nar·cis·sism

/ˈnɑrsəˌsɪzɛm/ Show Spelled[nahr-suh-siz-em]
–noun
1.inordinate fascination with oneself; excessive self-love; vanity.
2.Psychoanalysis.erotic gratification derived from admiration of one’s own physical or mental attributes, being a normal condition at the infantile level of personality development.
Why will everybody in the entire world have a smartphone and/or tablet PC in the not too distant future? One word, NARCISSISM! What else drives the masses to Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, WordPress, FailBlog, Blah, Blah, Blahblahblah……… All key enablers of the mobile internet explosion.

The term Narcissism is a Freudism in regards to the personality traits of egotism, arrogance, vanity, conceit, selfishness, arrogance, elitism, and other flattering terms. A certain level of narcissism is certainly healthy and considered an essential human trait as it provides balance in perception of one’s self to others. That, of course, was before social media and mobile internet where narcissism has literally gone wild!
Unfortunately narcissism can also be a personality disorder whereby a person overestimates abilities and has an excessive need for attention, admiration, and affirmation. Again, Facebooking with hundreds of “friends” that they may or may not really know, personal tweeting to the masses, and of course world wide YouTubing. Reference: “Self-Presentation 2.0: Narcissism and Self-Esteem on Facebook” .

In conclusion, mobile internet and social media hyper feeds basic human psychological needs as well as the needs of modern semiconductor design and manufacture. Lighter, cheaper smartphones with more features, more bandwidth, and more battery life will continue to hyper drive TSMC and the semiconductor industry as a whole. That is, of course, until the next consumer technological revolution hits. My hope is that it will be personal robots who will chaperone me into senility. Imagine the possibilities, a personal robot with 250,000+ down loadable apps!

For my family however, narcissism is in check. Good grades and personal achievements feed the egos around here, that and blog views (thank you for contributing). My wife and I don’t have a Facebook page and my kids are infrequent users. Texting however, runs rampant and Android phones and tablets will arrive at my house at some point in time so this may all change.


Steve Jobs’ 5 Minute Anti Open Systems Rant!

Steve Jobs’ 5 Minute Anti Open Systems Rant!
by Daniel Nenni on 10-24-2010 at 12:58 pm

First of all it was not a rant, it was a clearly scripted rebuttal to the competitive pressures Apple is feeling from Android (here). As I blogged before, Apple is the Open Standards Antichrist and is trying to monopolize the trillion dollar mobile internet ecosystem with a CLOSED platform. According to Steve Jobs, “Open systems don’t always win.” Say what!?!?!?

At the heart of the issue is the mobile operating systems Apple iOS and Google Android, so lets not forget the operating system wars of the 1980’s and 1990’s. Berkley UNIX Versus System V, which is today LINUX, a truly open system supported by all. I’m not saying it’s going to be a smooth ride for Android 3.0 integrators but open operating systems will prevail, believe it. Mac OS versus Windows, right? Steve Jobs can rant all he wants but in the end it is our vote that counts, which is why I don’t own a Mac, iPhone or iPad. DOWN with tyrany! Vote for FREEDOM of choice! Vote for the GINGERBREAD man!

Coincidently, the Silicon Integration Initiative (Si2) Open Access Conference was last week to which I was cordially invited. I mention this not just because it included a free lunch (I blog for food), it is also something I feel is critical to the future of the semiconductor design ecosystem. Richard Goering already did a nice write-up (here) so I will skip right to the most critical Open Standards issue facing semiconductor design today, the Process Design Kit TUG OF WAR!

The PDK is the contract between fabless semiconductor companies and the foundries containing the secret sauce of semiconductor manufacturing. The information inside a PDK is worth billions of dollars so it is protected accordingly. Unfortunately EDA tools require this information as well so EDA companies are the cheese in this symbiotic grilled cheese sandwich. Since EDA companies work with all of the foundries the opportunity for secret sauce leaks is always there. Since EDA companies try to get their proprietary formats into PDKs to lock in customers there will never be peace and harmony within the OpenPDK or IPL initiatives.

In my humble but expert opinion PDKs should be treated like a platform with apps, not unlike the smartphone, tablet PC, and now big screen TVs. Unfortunately it will take a company with the market share of an Apple, Google, or Samsung to be successful with this type of platform/app strategy. Fortunately we have such a company in the semiconductor industry and that, of course, is TSMC.

The TSMC iPDK (interoperable process design kit) initiative was announced on 7/21/2009 for 65nm and below. By keeping EDA vendors on TOP of the platform, TSMC can guard the secret sauce while sharing it with early access (top tier) fabless semiconductor companies. By lowering the cost of design apps, emerging fabless semiconductor companies can flourish. By keeping proprietary EDA formats OUT of the iPDK, TSMC can give customers the FREEDOM of choice!

Of course this gives TSMC the opportunity to monopolize the market so the OpenPDK initiative must also adopt a platform strategy and serve as a counter balance to iPDK. Use the comment section to voice your opinion on this very sensitive but crucial topic. Semiconductor design ecosystem decision makers and influencers subscribe to my blog, absolutely.


Semiconductor Supply and Demand in 2010/2011

Semiconductor Supply and Demand in 2010/2011
by Daniel Nenni on 10-22-2010 at 6:41 pm


The semiconductor analysts are at it again, revising numbers, polishing their guesstimates, and patting each other on the back for being equally as inaccurate. I blame these crystal ball hacks for the semiconductor shortages and price hikes we are experiencing today.

These people get paid to guide investors, and the industry as a whole, to prevent chaos and catastrophe and they have failed us all. Last year semiconductor related manufacturing facilities went dark, people lost jobs, capacity expansion plans were put on hold. It will take years to recover the stability required for a healthy semiconductor growth cycle.

“All signs point to another semiconductor downturn as there have now been signs of softening demand from approximately 65 percent of total semiconductor demand,” wrote Christopher Danely, an analyst at J.P. Morgan, in a report circulated Wednesday (Aug. 18).

Danely also said semiconductor stocks peaked in 2Q10 and he expects utilization rates will peak in 3Q10.Why trust an analyst from a financial services firm that may or may not be short on semiconductor stocks? This is deja vu of my blog “Colossal Failure of Common Sense”, where these dirty scoundrels nearly bankrupted us, stealing our home equity, all while taking home million dollar bonuses, but I digress.

The most recent post by Bill Jewell at Semiconductor Intelligence suggests capacity utilization will continue to increase through the rest of the year, hitting 96 percent in the fourth quarter. I’m with Bill on this one. Capacity has still not rebounded from the 2009 fiasco but with the most recent semiconductor capital expenditures you can bet it will, with a vengeance:

[LIST=1]

  • Samsung $15.3B
  • TSMC $5.9B
  • Intel $3.6B
  • GFI $2.7B
  • Toshiba $2.1B
  • Hynix $2.1B
  • UMC $1.8B
  • Inotera $1.5B
  • Nanya $1.4B
  • Elpida $1.0B

    As compared to numbers reported by iSupply earlier this year:

    The capacity numbers that interest me the most are the 300mm fabs at 65nm and below, that is where the billions of dollars of capital expenditures are going. 300mm manufacturing technology is where the smartphone and other key enabling semiconductor technology comes from. At 300mm, UMC and TSMC are both running at 100% and will continue to do so for the next year or two as these are the same fabs that produce 40nm and 28nm. Both UMC and TSMC have increased 300mm production this year due to efficiencies and existing expansion projects. TSMC will also complete their 3rd GigaFab (FAB 15) next year. Global Foundries 300mm Fabs (1,7,8) will see increases this year of 20%. With additional expansions and the new 300mm fab in New York, GFI should break 2M 300mm wafers per year by 2015.

    The questions I have are:

    [LIST=1]

  • Will the semiconductor industry continue to grow at single or double digits?
  • Are the foundries overspending on capacity?
  • Will there be a slingshot effect with overcapacity starting in 2012?

    Rather than ask the so called experts I would rather hear it from the people who actually design and manufacture semiconductors. When I Google search, I always read the Wikipedia entry first, trusting the collective wisdom of millions versus a biased person who stole my home equity.

    lang: en_US


  • Semiconductor Forecast: 2010 Boom – 2011 Bust?

    Semiconductor Forecast: 2010 Boom – 2011 Bust?
    by Daniel Nenni on 10-15-2010 at 6:34 pm


    Again, my economic bellwether is TSMC, and judging by the first half, 2010 will go down as one of the most profitable years the semiconductor industry has ever seen. In the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] quarter the foundries again posted record breaking wafer shipments, revenues, and profits. 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] quarter foundry financials should be even stronger. Bottom line, the semiconductor industry will see its largest yearly expansion and will easily break the $300B barrier in 2010.
    Pent up demand certainly explains the V recovery. My family was in financial lock down in 2009 but will more than make up the difference in 2010. New laptops, mobile phones, we even added a car and new energy efficient kitchen appliances, all semiconductor laden devices.

    Unfortunately, TSMC CEO Morris Chang recently commented that “inventory levels of its fabless and IDM customers have increased at a rate close to the increase in sales.” Total semiconductor inventories did grow 10% in Q2 which is double what was forecasted. Customers of both TSMC and UMC reported high inventory sequential growth levels for the second quarter of 2010:

    • Qualcomm’s grew 11%
    • Broadcom’s went up by 21.6%
    • MediaTek’s jumped 24%
    • AMD’s rose 14%
    • TI’s climbed 10%


    An August 5th post by Bill Jewel of Semiconductor Intelligence summarizes recent growth forecasts by the top analysts, which have risen dramatically month-to-month throughout 2010. Seriously, forecasting semiconductor growth this year has been like forecasting the weather, anything farther than 10 days out is just not reliable!

    Bill however does not exactly follow my semiconductor Boom to Bust prediction in 2011:
    Electronics new orders and production data from key countries also indicate a strong recovery.U.S.electronics new orders were up 14% in 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] quarter 2010 after showing a year-to-year decline of 14% in 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] quarter 2009. The European Union, Japan and Taiwan all had significant declines in electronics in early 2009, but have all bounced back to solid growth in 2010. China electronics production was the least affected by the recession, with 1[SUP]st[/SUP] quarter 2009 flat with a year ago. Chinahas recovered back to double-digit growth since 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter 2009.

    Nor does Bill support my position on growing semiconductor inventories:

    What about electronics inventories? Are they getting ahead of demand? Data from theU.S.andJapanshow the ratio of the inventory held by electronics manufacturers to their shipments began to climb in early 2008. The ratio peaked inJapanin December 2008 and then declined rapidly. In 2010, the ratio inJapanhas leveled off in the 80% to 90% range, below where it was in early 2008. TheU.S.ratio peaked in March 2009 and has declined to the 130% to 140% range, about the same level as the beginning of 2008.

    Unfortunately, government stimulus packages are expiring and leading economic indicators: consumer confidence index (CCI), jobs, housing, etc… are in decline, which supports my 2011 semiconductor bust (back to single digit growth) prediction. Not that there is anything wrong that!
    Hopefully the recent semiconductor foundry CAPEX surge will result in excess manufacturing capacity in 2012, which will in turn keep chip prices low. Remember, a modern GigaFab only has to run at 40% capacity to break even. Low chip prices will then support rampant consumerism and we will back to double digit semiconductor growth yet again. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it!

    lang: en_US


    What Do You Mean by Mandatory?

    What Do You Mean by Mandatory?
    by glforte on 10-14-2010 at 6:00 pm

    When TSMC and Mentor Graphics held a joint seminar for mutual customers to go over new DFM requirements at 45/40 nm, two customers basically asked the same question, “What do you mean by mandatory?” Of course, TSMC wasn’t going to stand over them and say, “Mandatory means mandatory, what part of mandatory don’t you understand?” :=) TSMC admitted that they hadn’t yet changed the tape-out checklist to forcibly include the DFM checks (CMP and LPC). This is what begs the question, what do you mean by mandatory?
    Continue reading “What Do You Mean by Mandatory?”


    What Do You Mean by Mandatory?

    What Do You Mean by Mandatory?
    by glforte on 10-14-2010 at 6:00 pm

    When TSMC and Mentor Graphics held a joint seminar for mutual customers to go over new DFM requirements at 45/40 nm, two customers basically asked the same question, “What do you mean by mandatory?” Of course, TSMC wasn’t going to stand over them and say, “Mandatory means mandatory, what part of mandatory don’t you understand?” :=) TSMC admitted that they hadn’t yet changed the tape-out checklist to forcibly include the DFM checks (CMP and LPC). This is what begs the question, what do you mean by mandatory?
    Continue reading “What Do You Mean by Mandatory?”