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IP-SoC trip report (part I): how analyst sees the future of IP (and forecast the past)

IP-SoC trip report (part I): how analyst sees the future of IP (and forecast the past)
by Eric Esteve on 01-06-2011 at 10:44 am

I will share with you the most interesting I have heard during IP-SoC 2010, last December in Grenoble. Today, let’s summarize what I heard about the future of the IP business. The presentation was done by Gartner, in the “Auditorium” (largest room). It first started with the results for 2010, and I took some notes, as you can see the business figures are very informative:

Overall IP business growth (2010/2009) was +24.8%, for a total of $1677M

  • IP licensing (50% of total) grew by 20%, royalties (42%) grew by +31% and maintenance/services (8%) by 25%.

This “forecast” is useful, as well as some trends proposed by Gartner about the IP market:

  • Innovation is moving from chip level to system level was the clear message. Or, if you prefer, be prepared to provide not only a piece of H/W to be used within a chip, but a more complete solution integrating several pieces of H/W, the drivers for these, and the S/W at system level. (We will come back to this in a next post).
  • In Automotive and Industrial, the IP usage will be growing from being 5 to 10% of a chip to 30 to 40% within 3-5 years.
  • In Wireless, IP usage will double and pass from 20% today to 40% in 2013/14.

Good to hear, this means that the IP market, as a business, should be growing in value per license (moving from chip to system level) and in license number, as the IP usage is strongly growing in at least two segments. Then came the growth forecast for 2011 to 2014. Don’t worry, I will share it with you:+6% in 2011, then +2.3% in 2012, followed by +6.7% in 2013 and 6.9% in 2014.Here I disagree! How cans a certain market strongly grow in unit value and in unit count, and posts a mere 5.8 CAGR ? I know the number of ASIC/ASSP design starts is expected to go down, but only by 2 or 3% per year. And the FPGA design starts also generate license sales (another post will come, as I have attended to the FPGA panel, see: http://www.design-reuse.com/ipsoc2010/program/panel_fpga.htmlSo I decided to dig into these figures, here is that I found.Using the forecast for 2010-2015 I have built for the Interface IP market(see: http://www.ip-nest.com/index.php?page=wired)analyzing precisely USB, PCIe, HDMI, DDRn, SATA, MIPI and a few others protocols, I have built this table.For 2010/2015, the CAGR is: 14.3%Using Gartner’s figures above listed, I have built a similar table, including all the IP segments. .For 2010/2015, the CAGR is 5.8%Now, extracting the expected market growth for all the IP businesses: Processor, Memories, Libraries, Mixed Signal, Digital… everything at the exception of the Interface IP, becomes pretty simple (no problem, I give you the formula: when a = b + c, then b = a – c; rocket science!). So the new table: the CAGR is now 2.7% !!What do you think? Is it realistic to expect a growth rate between 2 and 3% for a certain market, when everybody says the IP usage will grow (double?) because that is the only way to guarantee the TTM, for ASIC, ASSP and also FPGA?I really would appreciate your comments about this!


Variation-aware Design Survey

Variation-aware Design Survey
by Paul McLellan on 01-05-2011 at 5:56 pm

Solidohas run an interesting survey on variation-aware design. The data is generic and not specific to Solido’s products although you won’t be surprised to know that they have tools in this area.

What is variation-aware design? Semiconductor manufacturing is a statistical process and there are two ways to handle this in the design world. One is to abstract away from the statistical detail into a pass/fail environment with concepts like minimum spacing rules and worst-case transistor timing. Meet the rules and the chip will yield. This is largely what we do in the digital world although with the complexity of modern design rules and the number of process corners that we now need to consider a lot of the complexity of the process is bleeding through anyway. But there is an underlying assumption in this approach that within-die variation is minimal. In fact the very idea of a process corner depends on this: all the n-transistors are at this corner and the p-transistors are at that corner.

But for analog this approach is no longer good enough, instead the design needs to be analyzed in the context of process variation for which the foundry needs to provide variation models. This requires statistical techniques in the tools to take the statistical data from the process and estimate its effect on yield, timing and power. It remains unclear to what extent these approaches will become necessary in the digital world as we move down the process nodes.

Solido had an agency survey several thousand IC designers of which nearly 500 completed the survey, so this is quite a large survey. They are a mixture of management and custom designers (so not digital designers).

The number #1 problem where they felt that advances were needed in tools were variation-aware design (66%) followed by parasitic extraction (48%). Coming up at the rear I don’t think anyone will be surprised that there isn’t a burning desire for major improvements in schematic capture (7%).
Of course the main reason people want variation-aware technology is to improve yield (74%) and avoid respins (64%) which is really just an extreme case of yield improvement! They also wanted to avoid project delays since over half of the groups had missed deadlines or had respins due to variation issues, typically causing a 2 month slip.

When asked which process node people though variation-aware design was important, surprisingly about 10% said that it was already important at 0.18µm, but that number is up to 60% by 65nm and 100% by 22nm.

So this is definitely something the analog guys need to worry about now, and digital need to be aware of. Indeed, Solido is part of the TSMC AMS reference flow (and other companies such as Springsoft and Synopsys have some variation-aware capabilities).


Magma’s new version of Talus and updating infrastructure

Magma’s new version of Talus and updating infrastructure
by Paul McLellan on 01-04-2011 at 5:51 pm

One of the important but often unrecognized aspects of engineering is re-building the infrastructure underneath key design tools. Sometimes this gives a new desirable capability but often a lot of the effort is simply to modernize the code base so that it is possible to continue development effectively going forward. For example, I remember in Compass days replacing our creaky graphics infrastructure with something more modern. It was expensive to do and it didn’t generate any additional revenue, but the old code had been written well over a decade before and was no longer adequate. Because this sort of infrastructure underlies everything, it is rather like changing the wheel of a car without stopping.

I met with Bob Smith of Magma late last year, and coincidentally I ran into Hamid Savoj, the CTO, at a conference on 3D chips a few days later. They have successfully done one of these changing the wheels without stopping exercises recently.

Magma’s engineering team have swapped out the old timing and extraction engines from Talus and replacing them with the Tekton timing engine and the QCP extraction engine to create Talus Vortex 1.2. This can place and route over one million cells per day with all the modern requirements for crosstalk, metal migration, multi-corner etc. It can handle up to 3M cells flat, which is important since probably one of the biggest wishes of the semiconductor customers is to be able to handle designs flat, or with as little hierarchy as they can get away with. Ideally today they would like to be able to handle 20 million cells or more flat. All hierarchy added in any design tool due to capacity limitations of the tool tends to cause design efficiency to drop, sometimes dramatically if the number of blocks grows large. But wait, there’s more, as the old ads say.

Along with some further infrastructure work they have also created Talus Vortex FX which is the first distributed place and route solution. This pushes up the performance to over 3 million cells per day, and the capacity up above 8 million cells, which more than triples designer productivity. It analyzes the design, then partitions it into pieces that can be processed separately on their own server, and then eventually combines all the results back together (they call this Smart Sync). Some design tools are fairly easy to distribute (for example, DRC can be run on different parts of the chip in parallel and then stitched back together), some are very difficult (simulation, because there is a single global time-base so it is hard to find things that are independent) and some in between like place and route, although clever algorithms are needed to decide how to divide up the design amongst the computing resources.

As an irrelevant aside, in 1952 a car was driven across the US and back without stopping; of course it needed to have facilities to change a wheel without stopping. It can be seen today in the San Diego Automotive Museum.


The Ultimate SPICE Circuit Simulator

The Ultimate SPICE Circuit Simulator
by Daniel Payne on 01-03-2011 at 1:19 pm


I love SPICE and Fast SPICE circuit simulators, so here’s my feature list for the ultimate SPICE circuit simulator:

[LIST=1]

  • Input netlists – HSPICE, Spectre, ELDO
  • Multi-core support – parse and simulate fast and accurate
  • LRC Reduction – built-in LRC reduction with a few knobs to control accuracy
  • Tuning – Intuitive options to trade off speed and accuracy
  • Output waveforms – compatible with industry standard formats
  • Interactivity – able to stop, browse and continue simulations with Tcl functions and command line functions
  • Analysis – DC, Transient, Monte-Carlo, Noise, Sensitivity
  • Monte-Carlo – smart method to launch and control jobs
  • Co-simulation – integrated with HDL simulators: VHDL, Verilog, System Verilog, System C
  • OS – Linux, Windows 7
  • Environment – Works in my Cadence, Synopsys, Mentor, Magma flows
  • Models – Industry standards like BSIM3, BSIM4. Foundry supported.
  • Speed – the faster the better
  • Accuracy – no surprises with Silicon results
  • Learning Curve – just take it out of the box and it works
  • Installation – I don’t want to read the install notes, it should install like shrink-wrap PC or Mac software
  • Licensing – FlexLM is OK
  • Error and warning messages – something that an engineer can understand, no 5 digit look-up codes
  • Tech support – 24 hour response time to my critical bugs
  • Updates – online, easy to get the latest version or a few versions back

    What would you like to see in the ultimate SPICE circuit simulator?

    lang: en_US


  • The Future of Semiconductor Design!

    The Future of Semiconductor Design!
    by Daniel Nenni on 12-26-2010 at 10:15 pm

    Is EDA still an appropriate term for what we do? What applications will drive future semiconductor design innovation? Will further consolidation be required for EDA to thrive again? They are all good questions, questions that will hopefully be properly addressed at the EDAC CEO Forecast and Industry Vision event next week but here are my thoughts:

    Is EDA still an appropriate term for what we do? According to the most recent press releases:
    Synopsys, Inc. (Nasdaq: SNPS), a world leader in software and IP for semiconductor design, verification and manufacturing, today announced……

    Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CDNS), a global leader in electronic design innovation….

    Mentor Graphics Corporation (NASDAQ: MENT) is a world leader in electronic hardware and software design solutions………
    Magma® Design Automation Inc. (Nasdaq:LAVA), a provider of chip design software…..

    Not that EDA companies ever called themselves EDA companies in print, but I do see a disconnect here. One of the things I do for a living is provide background information to semiconductor industry investors. The foundries and their top customers are of BIG INTEREST, EDA and IP not so much. I have even conference called with analysts who have JUST attended EDA CEO presentations and they still don’t see the value in EDA. If you want to know the number one problem with EDA, that is it, communication. We really suck at it.

    What applications will drive future semiconductor design? That should be obvious after Christmas, EMBEDDED SYSTEMS! We got a new minivan for Christmas and you would not believe the electronics packages that are available today. Seriously, it’s like piloting a space shuttle. There has to be dozens of microprocessors and sensors embedded into this vehicle. Video cameras, collision avoidance, satellite, GPS, split screen DVD, electric doors, and disappearing seats just to name a few. Seriously, you push a button and the back seat automatically folds into the floor. The manual for this vehicle is hundreds of pages, hopefully one of my kids will read it someday.

    Currently embedded systems account for $200B+ of the $300B+ semiconductor revenues. That is if we can agree that an “embedded system” is an electronic device with a special purpose processor, including smartphones. The other $100B+ has general purpose processors driving them. Future semiconductor growth will come from the embedded side for sure.

    Will further consolidation be required for EDA to thrive again?Yes of course, I think we can all agree on that. My biggest concern however is the lack of EDA and IP start-ups. You will be hard pressed to find investors for semiconductor design. The top EDA companies are not helping much either. Remember when EDA partner programs were open? How about when the top EDA companies had incubators and VC funds? If the top EDA companies spent half as much time nurturing emerging companies as they do trying to kill them we would all be better off.

    Here’s the irony on the investment side, VC’s are spending billions of dollars on Facebook, Twitter, Zynga, and other mindless applications, but when it comes to the tools and IP that build the platforms? Pffft. How about when Google, Apple, and/or Oracle start buying ARM, Synopsys, and the other key semiconductor enablers? That will shake things up a bit and maybe we will remember where we all came from, START-UPS!


    Semiconductor and EDA Forecasts 2011 / 2012

    Semiconductor and EDA Forecasts 2011 / 2012
    by Daniel Nenni on 12-19-2010 at 5:25 pm


    Of course these are rolling forecasts which means they change every month, until they get them right. The missing forecaster here is Mike Cowen, developer of the Cowan LRA Model which forecasts global semiconductor sales. Mike has 2011 at a hilarious 2.3%! Below are the mid year market forecasts which were revised significantly from the January 2010 forecasts.


    Creds to David Manners for digging up the January 2010 Forecasts:

    [LIST=1]

  • Future Horizons 22%
  • iSupply 21.5%
  • Semico 20%
  • Semiconductor Intelligence 22%
  • Gartner 20%
  • VLSI Research 17%
  • IC Insights 15%
  • WSTS 12%
  • SIA 10.2%

    It seems that the more “official” the forecasters the more “inaccurate” the forecasts, with Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) and the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) coming in last.
    Record high year-end revenue and the anticipated double-digit growth next year is pushing semiconductor and the surrounding ecosystem stocks to 52-week highs. Shares of TSMC (TSM) are at an eight-year high with Morris Chang’s conservative 2011 prediction of growth @ 14%, I expect them to go even higher. In my somewhat expert opinion, TSMC will follow this year’s record 45% revenue increase with an even more incredible 20% in 2011, believe it.

    For those people who doubt the semiconductor market next year I truly wonder if they are living in the modern semiconductor society. Personally, my family and I are surrounded by silicon. Our appliances are now smarter than we are. It never ceases to amuse me when my refrigerator tells my kids to shut the door. My kids are counting the days on their two year contracts so they can get a new phone with more features and better battery life. How much silicon is under your Christmas tree? Who isn’t getting a Tablet or Kindle for Christmas?

    In regards to Electronic Design Automation, I see great things coming as well and am looking forward to the EDA Consortium Annual CEO Forecast and Industry Vision. Communication is a challenge in all aspects of our lives and communication between EDA vendors, customers, and the foundries is now the most dysfunctional I have seen in years. To improve communications, EDA Vendors are finally investing in Social Media, unfortunately they are failing at it. By definition, Social Media uses web-based technologies to turn communication into interactive dialogues. The standard EDA communications paradigm: “If you say something over and over it will be true” will not work with Social Media. It is also known as “drinking your own bath water” which promotes delusional behavior, believing one’s own misconceptions.

    Beginning in January REAL Social Media will come to the semiconductor design ecosystem (EDA, IP, Foundry) and it will start with the EDAC CEO event. If you have not registered I strongly suggest you do so today (here). You definitely will not want to miss it!


  • Mentor – Cadence Merger and the Federal Trade Commission

    Mentor – Cadence Merger and the Federal Trade Commission
    by Daniel Nenni on 12-12-2010 at 5:33 pm


    More consolidation is coming to EDA and so is the Federal Trade Commission. Corporate raider Carl Ichan owns 15% of Mentor Graphics and now owns 1% of Cadence. Ichan buddy multi billionaire George Soros, a long time CDNS investor, just purchased more than 76 million convertible notes of MENT.You do the math…

    Unfortunately the FTC will have the last word on a Cadence – Mentor merger and they are already sniffing around. One of the benefits of being an “Internationally Recognized Industry Blogger” is the many emails and phones calls I get asking for background information on the foundries, fabless, EDA, and IP companies. One of the briefest calls was from theFederal Trade Commission Bureau of Competition.Brief because it was lunch time and he was calling from a (202) area code (I blog for food).

    For those of us who remember, Cadence launched a hostile $1.6B bid for Mentor back in 2008. It was Cadence CEO Mike Fister’s last desperate plea for attention before golden parachuting out of EDA. Not that it was a bad idea, but it was certainly poorly executed. Okay it was also a bad idea. I stand by my previous blog, Mentor should buy Magmaand give Synopsys a real fight. It’s good for Mentor, it’s good for Magma, it’s good for EDA.

    Not that a potential EDA mega merger is the only reason for the FTC to be interested in EDA. Now that the 3 big EDA dogs own 90% of the market, it certainly is possible they are not fairly competing with the other 100+ EDA and IP puppies trying to get a look at the food bowl. This of course would be incredibly short sighted as EDA does not grow organically. EDA, from the beginning of time, has always grown inorganically through acquisitions of the best and brightest. Sometimes these guys are acquired multiple times as innovators generally work in small numbers and out of the spot light.

    Even though investors have left EDA, Semi IP, and even the fabless semiconductor market, there are dozens of start-ups in Silicon Valley and around the world. We do what we do, however we can do it. Getting these products to market, however, is still the biggest challenge. We are point tool girls and this is a point tool world and without the support or even the tolerance of the big 3 EDA companies our innovation will never survive in the mainstream semiconductor design ecosystem.

    An easy example is the Cadence Virtuoso dynasty. There are literally dozens of point tools that plug into Virtuoso offering value above and beyond what Cadence can offer. These tools can and are being kept out of the Virtuoso flow by Cadence product managers if there is the least amount of overlap or perceived competition. So rather than open Virtuoso up and leverage the collaborative innovation of the masses, Virtuoso stays closed, protected, and starving for outside influences. Remember, EDA does not grow organically so this protectionist behavior will ensure that our bowl of food will never grow. EDA can quickly become a lifestyle industry, an industry with the sole purpose of supporting the lifestyles of the people controlling it, if it hasn’t already.


    Webinar on Accelerating Analog Layout Productivity

    Webinar on Accelerating Analog Layout Productivity
    by Daniel Payne on 12-08-2010 at 11:58 pm

    MONROVIA, California – December 7, 2010 – With pressure to reduce time to market and with resources increasingly constrained, tools that can enable maximum productivity for analog and mixed-signal design are mission-critical. Tanner EDA, the catalyst for innovation for the design, layout and verification of analog and mixed-signal ICs, is holding two free webinars in December on using HiPer DevGen, the newest addition to the company’s tool portfolio, to help designers improve device and structure generation for increased layout productivity.
    HiPer DevGen (High Performance Device Generator) integrates seamlessly with Tanner EDA’s widely-installed layout editor (L-Edit) and provides unparalleled productivity gains. In the December webinars, a Tanner EDA product manager will be driving the tool for a live demonstration. You will see first-hand how to reduce weeks of design time into minutes using HiPer DevGen for current mirrors, differential pairs, and/or resistor arrays in your analog designs.

    • Register NowDec 14, 2010 – 2:00-3:00 pm PDT – HiPer DevGen webinar
    • Register NowDec 16, 2010 – 8:00-9:00am PDT – HiPer DevGen webinar

    For a 30-day free trial of Tanner tools to see for yourself the benefits of HiPer DevGen, click here
    Click to watch a video demonstration of HiPer DevGen layout acceleration or to download the HiPer DevGen whitepaper


    About Tanner EDA
    Tanner EDA provides a complete line of software solutionsthat catalyze innovation for the design, layout and verification of analog and mixed-signal (A/MS) integrated circuits (ICs) and MEMS. Customersare creating breakthrough applications in areas such as power management, displays and imaging, automotive, consumer electronics, life sciences, and RF devices. A low learning curve, high interoperability, and a powerful user interface improve design team productivity and enable a low total cost of ownership (TCO). Capability and performance are matched by low support requirements and high support capability as well as an ecosystem of partners that bring advanced capabilities to A/MS designs.
    Founded in 1988, Tanner EDA solutions deliver just the right mixture of features, functionality and usability. The company has shipped over 33,000 licenses of its software to more than 5,000 customers in 67 countries.

    HiPer DevGen and L-Edit are trademarks of Tanner Research, Inc.
    All other trademarks and trade names are the property of their respective owners.


    TSMC vs GlobalFoundries IBM Samsung

    TSMC vs GlobalFoundries IBM Samsung
    by Daniel Nenni on 12-05-2010 at 9:52 pm


    GlobalFoundries has brought the Common Platform Alliance back from the dead!?!?!?! Good thing too as it is probably their most comprehensive weapon against TSMC and answers the single biggest question customers have at 28nm and that is; Will there be enough CAPACITY?

    The Common Platform technology alliance hosted its first-ever Technology Forum on Tuesday, November 6, 2007 at the Santa Clara Convention center. I was there, the food was pretty good. No airline box lunch, this was a regular three course sit down meal.
    The mission statement back then was:

    IBM, Chartered and Samsung Electronics have broken new ground in the semiconductor industry with a unique collaboration focused on leading-edge, jointly developed digital CMOS process technologies and advanced manufacturing. The Common Platform model is further supported by a comprehensive ecosystem of design enablement and implementation partners from the EDA, IP and design services industries. This ecosystem allows foundry customers to source their chip designs to multiple 300mm foundries with minimal design work, unprecedented flexibility and choice. The Common Platform model features 90nm, 65nm, 45nm and 32nm technologies.

    Unfortunately it did NOT quite happen that way. The ONLY reason why fabless semiconductor companies were able to manufacture the same design in second (UMC), third (Chartered Semiconductor), and fourth (SMIC) source fabs at 130nm, 90nm, 65nm, and 40nm is because they all were “compatible” with TSMC. Artisan Components (ARM) enabled this wave of multisourcing by porting the physical IP they developed for TSMC to the other fabs.

    Here is the Common Platform mission statement for 2011:

    IBM, Samsung and GLOBALFOUNDRIES are members of the Common Platform alliance focusing on leading-edge, jointly developed digital CMOS process technologies and advanced manufacturing. The Common Platform model is further supported by a comprehensive ecosystem of design enablement and implementation partners from the EDA, IP and design services industries. This ecosystem allows foundry customers to source their chip designs to multiple 300mm foundries with minimal design work, unprecedented flexibility and choice.

    If in fact Common Platform can enable this 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] and 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] sourcing at 28nm and below it will give the top fabless semiconductor companies the perceived capacity they need to be successful. Samsung is the capacity wild card here and is really the only company strong enough in capitol ANDtechnology to challenge TSMC, so this is a big fat hairy deal.

    You can register for the Common Platform Technology Forum here. I would register quickly as the 2,000 seats will sell out well before the doors open. Here is the formal invite:

    Tomorrow’s Technology – Delivered Today
    The Common Platform Alliance of IBM, Samsung and GLOBALFOUNDRIES invites you join us at our technology forum on Tuesday, January 18. This free, daylong event will feature the Common Platform’s innovative collaboration to deliver industry-leading technology that breaks new ground in performance and power efficiency for the 32/28nm technology nodes and beyond.
    The technology forum features keynotes from industry leaders and presentations from senior members of the Common Platform partners. Topics include:

    • Technical advancements of the innovative 32/28nm low-power high-k metal gate (HKMG) process technology optimized for the next generation of communications and smart mobile devices
    • Technology innovations in SoC enablement solutions, materials science, process technology and manufacturing
    • Proven design and manufacturing solutions from the alliance and its ecosystem partners
    • The invention process and technology roadmap to 20nm and beyond

    A key part of the forum will focus on collaboration for technology delivery, highlighting the rich and broad ecosystem of design enablement and implementation partners through a Partner Pavilion featuring leading EDA, IP, library, mask, back-end and design services companies.
    Mark your calendar for this complementary one-day technical event!
    This is a special advance invitation. Please register early as seating is limited.

    Common Platform Alliance
    www.commonplatform.com