China Semiconductor Bond Bust!

China Semiconductor Bond Bust!
by Robert Maire on 11-25-2020 at 10:00 am

China Semiconductor Bond Bust

– Tsinghua $198M Bond Bust
– Good for memory: Samsung Micron LG Toshiba –
– Not good for chip equipment
– Could China Credit Crunch hit more than foundry embargo?
– Damage to China memory positive for other memory makers
– Not good for chip equip if customers can’t get money

China’s… Read More


2021 will be the year of DRAM!

2021 will be the year of DRAM!
by Robert Maire on 11-15-2020 at 6:00 am

Robert Maire Bloomberg

2020 has been a NAND growth year-2021 will be the year of DRAM. While foundry logic has gotten all the credit in 2020 the reality is that NAND has been up 2X in 2020 for semiconductor equipment provider Applied Materials (AMAT). It is expected that NAND will be flat in 2021 while DRAM will take over the growth slot with foundry/logic … Read More


Post Election Fallout-Let the Chips Fall / Rise Where They May

Post Election Fallout-Let the Chips Fall / Rise Where They May
by Robert Maire on 11-09-2020 at 10:00 am

US China Trade War
  • Changing US administration likely positive for chips & tech
  • Stepping back from the brink of a potential ugly trade war
  • Likely increased Covid/tech spend- War with Big Tech is over
  • Tech & Chips had a lot riding on the elections outcome

As compared to previous presidential elections, this one likely has much more impact on… Read More


Is Intel Losing its Memory?

Is Intel Losing its Memory?
by Robert Maire on 10-19-2020 at 12:00 pm

Intel SK Hynix NAND
  • It’s reported that Intel is selling its NAND ops to SK Hynix
  • Would likely get Intel out of a tough & distracting market
  • Is Intel abandoning China? Like Intel’s sale of XPoint to Micron

Getting out of NAND makes sense
The memory market is very tough, competitive and worst of all, very cyclical. Unless you have an iron… Read More


SMIC Cut off by US Government is Doomsday Scenario for US Chip Equipment Companies

SMIC Cut off by US Government is Doomsday Scenario for US Chip Equipment Companies
by Robert Maire on 09-27-2020 at 2:00 pm

US versus China Semiconductor

SMIC Cut Off = Worst case scenario
SMIC is on US gov “no fly” list for US Equipment Companies
Will likely lead to loss of all of China- 25% to 50% of revenues
Retaliation by China will worsen situation
SMIC cut off from US technology (Chip Equip)

It has been reported in the Wall St Journal and many news outlets that the US government… Read More


LRCX Strong Beat and Guide

LRCX Strong Beat and Guide
by Robert Maire on 08-02-2020 at 6:00 am

Robert Maire

Lam reported strong beat & guide, memory returns-
China trade and Covid impact near zero-
Looking at a strong H2 with WFE in mid $50B+-

Back on Cruise Control

Lam reported a great quarter, easily beating expectations coming in at $2.79B and $4.78 in non GAAP EPS-
Guide is for $3.1B +-$200M and EPS of $5.06+-$0.40-
Margins and all… Read More


ASML More Covid Concerns and Impact

ASML More Covid Concerns and Impact
by Robert Maire on 07-19-2020 at 6:00 am

ASML Covid
  • Covid related Revenue Rec causes rev/EPS miss
  • Sharp order drop reflects H2 industry uncertainty
  • EUV remains solid- Memory/Logic mix is better

Results were in line after correcting Covid Caused Revenue Rec issue-
ASML reported revenues of Euro3.3B and EPS of Euro1.79 as revenues from two EUV systems was not recognized, due to … Read More


Apple’s Silicon Switch Changes Game & Balance 

Apple’s Silicon Switch Changes Game & Balance 
by Robert Maire on 06-24-2020 at 10:00 am

Intel Apple Silicon

Will/should others follow?
TSMC vs Intel impact?
Moving Apple’s supply chain further overseas

Apples move to self served silicon was no surprise…..
It has been speculated for years and we have talked about it many times.  It makes more sense for Apple to have silicon, custom designed for their applications and products… Read More


TSMC Pushes out Equip Purchases – SIA and SEMI ask for Government Help

TSMC Pushes out Equip Purchases – SIA and SEMI ask for Government Help
by Robert Maire on 06-01-2020 at 9:00 am

TSMC China

TSMC pushing out equipment purchases
Covid/China trickles down to chip industry
SIA and SEMI ask for financial/govt help to keep up
The beginning of another down cycle?

We have heard from a number of sources that TSMC has started to push out equipment orders as concerns grow about the second half of the year.

Right now is the most logical… Read More


TSMC stops doing business with Huawei!

TSMC stops doing business with Huawei!
by Robert Maire on 05-18-2020 at 9:30 am

China Semiconductor Ban Huawei

Hours after agreeing to build a fab in US TSMC will stop selling to Huawei- Repercussions will reverberate through all tech: Semis, semi equip, chip customers, all collateral damage.

It has been reported by Nikkei and other sources that TSMC has stopped taking orders from Huawei in order to comply with US export controls.

HUAWEIRead More