ASML A Scenario More Lumpy While Demand and Tech Remain Solid Despite Covid Delays

ASML A Scenario More Lumpy While Demand and Tech Remain Solid Despite Covid Delays
by Robert Maire on 04-22-2020 at 2:00 pm

ASML SemiWiki 2020

Covid issues create “lumpy” quarters due to delays
Orders & demand remain solid and strong
2020 Year financials intact so far but ignore Qtrs
Taking prudent actions- no buybacks or guidance

As expected, Covid impacts both shipments & supply chain, ignore the near term lumpiness…
ASML reported revenues… Read More


Short vs Long Term Covid19 Impact

Short vs Long Term Covid19 Impact
by Robert Maire on 04-19-2020 at 10:00 am

Covid Semiconductor

-Short term Covid19 impact is primarily logistics related
-Longer term impact is more systemic/demand driven
-Impact will wind through supply chain over several qtrs
-Other issues, such as trade, remain an overhang

Short term versus long term in the semiconductor industry
The stocks declines over the last months seem to indicate… Read More


Newsflash Chip Equip Blockade Back on!

Newsflash Chip Equip Blockade Back on!
by Robert Maire on 03-29-2020 at 2:00 pm

US China Blockade


Blocking chip sales to Huawei back on front burner
Covid19 & China Trade are equally bad
Long lived Uncertainty could “plague” industry sales going forward
Political Predictability worse than Disease Predictability

Reuters broke a story today that the proposed licensing of chip equipment to prevent “bad… Read More


COVID-19 Chip Cycle – How deep, long and what shape?

COVID-19 Chip Cycle – How deep, long and what shape?
by Robert Maire on 03-26-2020 at 10:00 am

Covid 19 Semiconductors SemiWiki 1

It is a demand driven downturn – harder to predict
It may not be “business as usual” after this virus
What systemic changes could the industry face?

Trying to figure out another cycle-driven by inorganic catalyst

Investors and industry participants in the semiconductor industry who are used to normal cyclical… Read More


Will the Q1 Haircut become Covid-19 Crew Cut in Q2?

Will the Q1 Haircut become Covid-19 Crew Cut in Q2?
by Robert Maire on 03-16-2020 at 5:00 am

Corvid 19 Crew Cut Semiwiki
  • Corona impact growing exponentially in chip food chain
  • YMTC in Wuhan may be “patient zero”
  • Q1 revenue haircuts may turn into Q2 crewcuts
  • Working from home really doesn’t work

When does a haircut become a crew cut in revenues?
All the major semiconductor equipment makers took a significant haircut to their Q1… Read More


COVID-19 Collateral Chip Collision – Will Fabs & Foundries Flounder?

COVID-19 Collateral Chip Collision – Will Fabs & Foundries Flounder?
by Robert Maire on 03-05-2020 at 6:00 am

Corvid 19 SemiWiki

Corona Fab Impact –
lower production/raise prices
Chip production supply chain may break
It could temporarily fix memory oversupply
Could it risk the fall roll out of next Iphone

The ” Two week tango” – Waiting games at fabs
When a highly specialized piece of semiconductor equipment misbehaves to the… Read More


Coronavirus Chops SPIE Litho EUV Conference

Coronavirus Chops SPIE Litho EUV Conference
by Robert Maire on 03-01-2020 at 6:00 am

SPIE EUV 2020 Coronavirus

Corona Curtails already quiet SPIE Litho conference
Our best guess is that attendance was off by 30% from last years SPIE conference due to a lack of travelers from many Asian areas obviously out of Corona fear. Even Intel, which is a few miles away was a virtual no-show with a mass cancellation.

More importantly, virtually all after… Read More


China Chip Equip Embargo just got real

China Chip Equip Embargo just got real
by Robert Maire on 02-24-2020 at 10:00 am

Chip Embargo Just Got Real

Worst Case Scenario now possible!

  • Embargo could extend beyond China to Taiwan (TSMC)
  • Likely backs up ASML pressure & Huawei indictment
  • “Maximum Pressure” campaign similar to Iran
  • Not likely to go away through trade negotiations

US to restrict chip equipment sales to Huawei producers
The Wall Street Journal… Read More


Minimal Corona Impact on Chip Equipment Stocks

Minimal Corona Impact on Chip Equipment Stocks
by Robert Maire on 02-16-2020 at 6:00 am

Coronavirus Light SemiWiki

Very solid quarter driven by foundry/logic
AMAT reported a very solid quarter, beating the top end of guidance with foundry and logic being the primary drivers of spend. Revenues were $4.16B and EPS of $0.98 non-GAAP versus street of $4.11B and $0.93 EPS.

Guide not too wide… – $300M “Corona Cut”
More importantly,… Read More


Good December but March variable due to Coronavirus

Good December but March variable due to Coronavirus
by Robert Maire on 02-07-2020 at 10:00 am

Coronavirus
  • Trend remains positive for 2020 overall
  • New tools & EUV suggest better growth in 2020
  • Calendar 2019 ends on strong foundry note

KLAC reported revenues of $1.509B and EPS of $2.66 NonGAAP versus street of $1.48B and $2.58.  Foundry (TSMC) was obviously the big driver of the quarter and into 2020 as well.  Memory remains subdued… Read More