A Tale of Two Semis

A Tale of Two Semis
by Robert Maire on 04-21-2019 at 7:00 am

It was the best of times (for stocks)
It was the worst of times (for memory chips)
The disconnect between stock & chip prices

The Venn Diagram of Stocks and Chips

Having been involved with semiconductor and tech stocks for a long time there has always been a loose correlation between the fortunes of the industry and the fortunes… Read More


Report from SPIE EUV Update 2019

Report from SPIE EUV Update 2019
by Robert Maire on 03-01-2019 at 7:00 am

Not as much new – No breakthrough announcements, 300 watts is better than 250 watts – Pellicle Problems, TSMC is EUV king – Third times a charm? We attended this years SPIE Lithography convention in San Jose as we have for many years. Although the show was quite enthusiastic and EUV was the central topic, as it has… Read More


Doesn’t sound like a recovery anytime in 2019

Doesn’t sound like a recovery anytime in 2019
by Robert Maire on 02-18-2019 at 7:00 am

AMAT reported a more or less in line quarter with revenues of $3.75B and Non-GAAP EPS of $0.81 versus street expectation of $0.79 and revenues of $3.71B. Guidance came in well below the street with revenues expected between $3.33B to $3.63B and Non-GAAP EPS from $0.62 to $0.70 versus expectations of $3.66B and $0.77. The company … Read More


ASML and Memory Loss 2019

ASML and Memory Loss 2019
by Robert Maire on 01-25-2019 at 7:00 am

ASML reported a more or less in line quarter as expected, coming in at EUR3.14B in revenues and EPS of EUR1.87. However, guidance was worse than most analysts were expecting with Q1 revenues expected to be EUR2.1B or down about one third.

This cut is something we have been talking about for a while as we have expected sharp memory CAPEX… Read More


TSMC and Apple Aftermath

TSMC and Apple Aftermath
by Robert Maire on 01-21-2019 at 7:00 am

TSMC reported an in line quarter, as expected and also reported down Q1 guidance, also as expected. The only thing some investors may have been caught off guard about is the magnitude of the expected drop, 14%, from $9.4B to $7.35B. This is the largest quarter over quarter drop for TSMC in a very long time. Importantly for TSMC, 7NM … Read More


Needham Growth Conference Notes 2019

Needham Growth Conference Notes 2019
by Robert Maire on 01-17-2019 at 12:00 pm

We attended the Needham Growth Conference which is one of the first conferences of the year and in the quiet period before most companies reported so even though there was no “official” comment from most companies on the quarter, the surrounding commentary spoke volumes:

  • The down cycle (and everyone admits its a cycle
Read More

Samsung pre-announces miss on weak memory and phones

Samsung pre-announces miss on weak memory and phones
by Robert Maire on 01-09-2019 at 7:00 am

It should come as no big surprise that Samsung will miss its Q4 numbers. The company pre announced that profits will be 10.8T KWON (about $9.7B ) versus the 13.2T KWON analysts had predicted, close to a 20% miss. This number is also down about 39% sequentially. Revenue at 59T KWON instead of expected 62.8T KWON and down about 10%. The… Read More


Apple as Apex of chip industry portends weaker 2019

Apple as Apex of chip industry portends weaker 2019
by Robert Maire on 01-04-2019 at 7:00 am

On the first day of trading in the new year Apple just announced, after the close, that revenues will be lower than previously expected coming in at $84B versus the expected range of $89B to $93B and analyst estimates of the current quarter at $91.5B. Ugly….. The blame was laid squarely on China as slowing sales and trade tensions… Read More


CAPEX Cuts and Microns Memory Markdown

CAPEX Cuts and Microns Memory Markdown
by Robert Maire on 12-21-2018 at 7:00 am

For those who have been paying any attention to the semiconductor industry its no surprise that memory demand and therefore pricing is down from its peak earlier in the year. Its not getting better any time fast.

After several strong years of demand and pricing, which was followed by enormous CAPEX spending we are seeing the standard… Read More


Could China Conflict Curtail Chip Comeback?

Could China Conflict Curtail Chip Comeback?
by Robert Maire on 12-05-2018 at 7:00 am

At the recent trade talks in South America, the US and China both kicked the can down the road as neither one were obviously willing to do a deal nor had done any background work to get a deal done. Instead we have a bunch of empty promises and vague and conflicting descriptions of what was not really even agreed to.

Essentially worthlessRead More