China Chip Equip Embargo just got real

China Chip Equip Embargo just got real
by Robert Maire on 02-24-2020 at 10:00 am

Chip Embargo Just Got Real

Worst Case Scenario now possible!

  • Embargo could extend beyond China to Taiwan (TSMC)
  • Likely backs up ASML pressure & Huawei indictment
  • “Maximum Pressure” campaign similar to Iran
  • Not likely to go away through trade negotiations

US to restrict chip equipment sales to Huawei producers
The Wall Street Journal… Read More


Minimal Corona Impact on Chip Equipment Stocks

Minimal Corona Impact on Chip Equipment Stocks
by Robert Maire on 02-16-2020 at 6:00 am

Coronavirus Light SemiWiki

Very solid quarter driven by foundry/logic
AMAT reported a very solid quarter, beating the top end of guidance with foundry and logic being the primary drivers of spend. Revenues were $4.16B and EPS of $0.98 non-GAAP versus street of $4.11B and $0.93 EPS.

Guide not too wide… – $300M “Corona Cut”
More importantly,… Read More


Good December but March variable due to Coronavirus

Good December but March variable due to Coronavirus
by Robert Maire on 02-07-2020 at 10:00 am

Coronavirus
  • Trend remains positive for 2020 overall
  • New tools & EUV suggest better growth in 2020
  • Calendar 2019 ends on strong foundry note

KLAC reported revenues of $1.509B and EPS of $2.66 NonGAAP versus street of $1.48B and $2.58.  Foundry (TSMC) was obviously the big driver of the quarter and into 2020 as well.  Memory remains subdued… Read More


ASML EUV China Chip Equip Risk

ASML EUV China Chip Equip Risk
by Robert Maire on 01-10-2020 at 10:00 am

ASML China EUV
  • Is ASML first clandestine shot in US war on China chips?
  • Will the action extend further to other chip equip cos?
  • China chip cold conflict warming up?

It would appear from a Reuters report yesterday that a behind the scenes “cold war” between the US and China in the chip business has just been exposed and has the potential… Read More


AMAT last to confirm foundry led recovery

AMAT last to confirm foundry led recovery
by Robert Maire on 11-18-2019 at 6:00 am

Good end to a weak fiscal year- and end to down cycle
As expected and well telegraphed by TSMC, LRCX, ASML & KLAC, AMAT put up a good quarter and guide as the last to report that the industry has turned the corner on the down cycle. While not a rip roaring recovery, its better to return to growth than continue a downward trend.

Results… Read More


AMD Intel TSMC menage a trois and the trouble with trouples

AMD Intel TSMC menage a trois and the trouble with trouples
by Robert Maire on 11-01-2019 at 10:00 am

  • Its “Complicated”- A 3 way Chip Relationship
  • Competing for Wafers, Moore’s Law & Love
  • Who’s Competing with Whom?
  • All’s Fair

The 3 way relationship is more complex than it seems

On the surface it seems simple. AMD and TSMC compete with Intel making its own chips and TSMC making them for AMD. But… Read More


TSMC – Solid Q3 Beat Guide- 5G Driver – Big Capex Bump – Flawless Execution

TSMC – Solid Q3 Beat Guide- 5G Driver – Big Capex Bump – Flawless Execution
by Robert Maire on 10-19-2019 at 6:00 am

TSMC puts up solid QTR, Capex increase for 5NM and capacity increase, 5G/mobile remains driver- HPC good 7NM, 27% of revs- Very nice margins!

In line quarter-Good guide
TSMC reported revenues of $9.4B and EPS of $0.62 , more or less in line with expectations, perhaps a touch below ” whisper” expectations which had been… Read More


Is Samsung having problems with 7NM? Do long lines at TSMC prove that?

Is Samsung having problems with 7NM? Do long lines at TSMC prove that?
by Robert Maire on 09-19-2019 at 2:00 pm

Reports of increasing TSMC 7NM lead times
There have been a number of increasing media reports about lengthening leads times for TSMC 7NM process. From what we have been able to determine its not due to TSMC having a yield bust or other production issues, it is simply one of stronger than expected demand.

There have been reports of … Read More


The Korea/Japan trade war benefits US more than US/China hurts US

The Korea/Japan trade war benefits US more than US/China hurts US
by Robert Maire on 09-18-2019 at 10:00 am

Investors underestimate Japan/Korea trade war, US chip equip companies get collateral benefit, Long term share shifts in China & Korea, Creates near term upside for US companies, Memory Chip Price “Mirage”.
The lesser known trade war
While the market and the news has been pre-occupied with the ongoing soap
Read More

Hopes of a 2020 recovery but nothing solid yet

Hopes of a 2020 recovery but nothing solid yet
by Robert Maire on 08-18-2019 at 6:00 am

An in line quarter

Applied reported a quarter just above the mid point of guidance and analyst numbers (which mimic guidance) with revenues of $3.56B and EPS of $0.74 with guidance of $3.685B+-$150M and EPS o $0.72 to $0.80, also in line with current expectations. All in all a fairly boring quarter with business bouncing along a soft… Read More