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- Samsung follows Intel in staff reductions due to weakness in chips
- Chip industry split between haves & have nots (AI & rest of chips)
- Capital spend under pressure – Facing Eventual China issues
- Stick with monopolies, avoid commodities
Samsung announces layoffs amid weak chip business and outlook
Samsung announced… Read More
- AMAT reports good but underwhelming quarter
- China slowing creates revenue & GM headwinds- ICAPs weak
- AI remains the one and only bright spot in both foundry & memory
- Cyclical recovery remains slow – Single digit Y/Y growth
OK quarter – still slow growing, revs up only 5% Y/Y
AMAT came in at revenues of $6.78B… Read More
- The chip industry got a double tap of both China & Taiwan concerns
- Bloomberg reported the potential for draconian China chip restrictions
- Trump threw Taiwan under the bus demanding “protection money”
- Over-inflated chip stocks had a “rapid unscheduled disassembly”
US looking to further restrict
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– Lam reports another flat quarter & guide- No recovery in sight yet
– Seems like no expectation of recovery until 2025- Mixed results
– DRAM good- NAND weak- Foundry/Logic mixed-Mature weakening
– Clearly disappointing to investors & stock hoping for a chip recovery
Another Flat Quarter &
…
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– ASML orders more than triple sequentially- Utilization increases
– Management remains conservative with flat revenues 2024 vs 2023
– Recovery will be slow, targeting 2025- Long & weak cyclical bottom
– Litho orders are leading indicator of future wider recovery
Strong orders pave the way for
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- What kind of recovery do we expect, if any, after 2 down years?
- What impact will China have on the recovery of mature market chips?
- What will memory recovery look like? Will we return to stupid spend?
- Stock selection ever more critical in tepid recovery
Chip stocks have rocketed but the industry itself, not so much, “Anticipation….is
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- Reports suggest Intel will get 6 of 10 ASML High NA tools in 2024
- Would give Intel a huge head start over TSMC & Samsung
- A big gamble but a potentially huge pay off
- Does this mean $4B in High NA tool sales for ASML in 2024?
News suggests Intel will get 6 of first 10 High NA tools made by ASML in 2024
An industry news source, Trendforce, reports… Read More
- China Chip Sanctions have had opposite of intended effect
- Helps AMAT, LRCX, KLAC & TEL- Hurts Micron and GloFo
- Tsunami of Chinese capacity will hurt memory & 2nd tier chip makers
- The probability of a much longer chip downcycle is increasing
China is cornering the market on Semiconductor equipment
Quarterly reports from… Read More
- ASML reports in-line QTR but future looks flat for 2024
- Downcycle finally hits litho leader- ASML monopoly solid as ever
- Memory remains bleak – New China sanctions unclear
- Recovery timing is unclear but planning for an up 2025
In Line Quarter and year as expected
Overall revenues came in at Euro6.7B with EPS at Euro4.81, more… Read More
- This past weeks over-reaction to Canon echoes the Sculpta Scare
- Nanoimprint has made huge strides but is still not at all competitive
- Shows basic lack of understanding of technology by some pundits
- Chip industry has been searching for alternatives that don’t exist
Much ado about nothing much…..
This past week we … Read More
