Opening a new front in multi faceted trade war

Opening a new front in multi faceted trade war
by Robert Maire on 05-30-2019 at 5:00 am

We had warned in our May 10th note about the rare earth element risk.  It is one of the few remaining leverage points that China has left that has a potentially strong impact on the US much similar to the US’s impact on Huawei and perhaps even worse. Cutting the US off from rare earth elements is clearly worse than cutting Huawei
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Chips are the bleeding edge of China trade war Recovery

Chips are the bleeding edge of China trade war Recovery
by Robert Maire on 05-17-2019 at 7:00 am

Last week we warned of a further down leg due to China trade. We were surprised how quickly our prediction came true as it appears we are now in the midst of giving back all the upside built in to stocks based on a peaceful resolution of the trade conflict which obviously isn’t happening.

Many of the semi stocks we cover were down… Read More


Chip Equip Trade War Collateral Damage

Chip Equip Trade War Collateral Damage
by Robert Maire on 05-13-2019 at 7:00 am

We have been very vocal and perhaps the first to warn of the risks to the semiconductor and semiconductor equipment industry from the China trade war with the US. It seems that the war is now fully upon us with the imposition of 25% tariffs by the US and promised retribution by China. The semiconductor industry is at the leading edge … Read More


Bottom of a Semiconductor Canoe Cycle Shape

Bottom of a Semiconductor Canoe Cycle Shape
by Robert Maire on 05-09-2019 at 12:00 pm

Nice numbers despite the cycle bottom
KLA put up EPS of $1.80 versus street of $1.67 on revenues of $1.097B versus street of $1.08B. However guidance was weaker than the street was hoping for with a range of $1.21B to $1.29B in revenues generating between $1.55 and $1.85 in non GAAP EPS. This is compared to current street estimates … Read More


A Tale of Two Semis

A Tale of Two Semis
by Robert Maire on 04-21-2019 at 7:00 am

It was the best of times (for stocks)
It was the worst of times (for memory chips)
The disconnect between stock & chip prices

The Venn Diagram of Stocks and Chips

Having been involved with semiconductor and tech stocks for a long time there has always been a loose correlation between the fortunes of the industry and the fortunes… Read More


Report from SPIE EUV Update 2019

Report from SPIE EUV Update 2019
by Robert Maire on 03-01-2019 at 7:00 am

Not as much new – No breakthrough announcements, 300 watts is better than 250 watts – Pellicle Problems, TSMC is EUV king – Third times a charm? We attended this years SPIE Lithography convention in San Jose as we have for many years. Although the show was quite enthusiastic and EUV was the central topic, as it has… Read More


Doesn’t sound like a recovery anytime in 2019

Doesn’t sound like a recovery anytime in 2019
by Robert Maire on 02-18-2019 at 7:00 am

AMAT reported a more or less in line quarter with revenues of $3.75B and Non-GAAP EPS of $0.81 versus street expectation of $0.79 and revenues of $3.71B. Guidance came in well below the street with revenues expected between $3.33B to $3.63B and Non-GAAP EPS from $0.62 to $0.70 versus expectations of $3.66B and $0.77. The company … Read More


ASML and Memory Loss 2019

ASML and Memory Loss 2019
by Robert Maire on 01-25-2019 at 7:00 am

ASML reported a more or less in line quarter as expected, coming in at EUR3.14B in revenues and EPS of EUR1.87. However, guidance was worse than most analysts were expecting with Q1 revenues expected to be EUR2.1B or down about one third.

This cut is something we have been talking about for a while as we have expected sharp memory CAPEX… Read More


TSMC and Apple Aftermath

TSMC and Apple Aftermath
by Robert Maire on 01-21-2019 at 7:00 am

TSMC reported an in line quarter, as expected and also reported down Q1 guidance, also as expected. The only thing some investors may have been caught off guard about is the magnitude of the expected drop, 14%, from $9.4B to $7.35B. This is the largest quarter over quarter drop for TSMC in a very long time. Importantly for TSMC, 7NM … Read More


Needham Growth Conference Notes 2019

Needham Growth Conference Notes 2019
by Robert Maire on 01-17-2019 at 12:00 pm

We attended the Needham Growth Conference which is one of the first conferences of the year and in the quiet period before most companies reported so even though there was no “official” comment from most companies on the quarter, the surrounding commentary spoke volumes:

  • The down cycle (and everyone admits its a cycle
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