Podcast EP4: Can China Really Become Self-Sufficient in Semiconductors?

Podcast EP4: Can China Really Become Self-Sufficient in Semiconductors?
by Daniel Nenni on 01-22-2021 at 10:00 am

Dan and Mike are joined by industry expert Robert Maire for a discussion on China based semiconductors. Robert is an internationally recognized expert on all aspects of semiconductor manufacturing. He joined SemiWiki in 2015 and his blogs have garnered more than 2 million views and many pointed discussions. Robert founded Semiconductor… Read More


SMIC Blacklist puts ASML in Jam

SMIC Blacklist puts ASML in Jam
by Robert Maire on 12-20-2020 at 6:00 am

SMIC Blacklisted US

US BIS confirms our prediction of “blacklisting” SMIC
SMIC embargoed from 10NM or better technology
Likely related to ASML pressure & WH scorched earth

Not just the stock

We had received a lot of feedback on our Nov 30th note regarding blacklisting of SMIC suggesting that we were wrong and the only thing blacklisted… Read More


Noose tightens on SMIC- Dead Fab Walking?

Noose tightens on SMIC- Dead Fab Walking?
by Robert Maire on 12-01-2020 at 6:00 am

SMIC US Embargo

-US Administration to “blacklist” SMIC- Cutting off ALL US help
-A slow death versus a quick death (unlike Jinhua)
-There is enough time on way out door to leave scorched earth
-Reports in the Media about SMIC being “Blacklisted”

It has been widely reported that SMIC will be added to the US “Blacklist”… Read More


China Semiconductor Bond Bust!

China Semiconductor Bond Bust!
by Robert Maire on 11-25-2020 at 10:00 am

China Semiconductor Bond Bust

– Tsinghua $198M Bond Bust
– Good for memory: Samsung Micron LG Toshiba –
– Not good for chip equipment
– Could China Credit Crunch hit more than foundry embargo?
– Damage to China memory positive for other memory makers
– Not good for chip equip if customers can’t get money

China’s… Read More


2021 will be the year of DRAM!

2021 will be the year of DRAM!
by Robert Maire on 11-15-2020 at 6:00 am

Robert Maire Bloomberg

2020 has been a NAND growth year-2021 will be the year of DRAM. While foundry logic has gotten all the credit in 2020 the reality is that NAND has been up 2X in 2020 for semiconductor equipment provider Applied Materials (AMAT). It is expected that NAND will be flat in 2021 while DRAM will take over the growth slot with foundry/logic … Read More


Post Election Fallout-Let the Chips Fall / Rise Where They May

Post Election Fallout-Let the Chips Fall / Rise Where They May
by Robert Maire on 11-09-2020 at 10:00 am

US China Trade War
  • Changing US administration likely positive for chips & tech
  • Stepping back from the brink of a potential ugly trade war
  • Likely increased Covid/tech spend- War with Big Tech is over
  • Tech & Chips had a lot riding on the elections outcome

As compared to previous presidential elections, this one likely has much more impact on… Read More


Is Intel Losing its Memory?

Is Intel Losing its Memory?
by Robert Maire on 10-19-2020 at 12:00 pm

Intel SK Hynix NAND
  • It’s reported that Intel is selling its NAND ops to SK Hynix
  • Would likely get Intel out of a tough & distracting market
  • Is Intel abandoning China? Like Intel’s sale of XPoint to Micron

Getting out of NAND makes sense
The memory market is very tough, competitive and worst of all, very cyclical. Unless you have an iron… Read More


SMIC Cut off by US Government is Doomsday Scenario for US Chip Equipment Companies

SMIC Cut off by US Government is Doomsday Scenario for US Chip Equipment Companies
by Robert Maire on 09-27-2020 at 2:00 pm

US versus China Semiconductor

SMIC Cut Off = Worst case scenario
SMIC is on US gov “no fly” list for US Equipment Companies
Will likely lead to loss of all of China- 25% to 50% of revenues
Retaliation by China will worsen situation
SMIC cut off from US technology (Chip Equip)

It has been reported in the Wall St Journal and many news outlets that the US government… Read More


LRCX Strong Beat and Guide

LRCX Strong Beat and Guide
by Robert Maire on 08-02-2020 at 6:00 am

Robert Maire

Lam reported strong beat & guide, memory returns-
China trade and Covid impact near zero-
Looking at a strong H2 with WFE in mid $50B+-

Back on Cruise Control

Lam reported a great quarter, easily beating expectations coming in at $2.79B and $4.78 in non GAAP EPS-
Guide is for $3.1B +-$200M and EPS of $5.06+-$0.40-
Margins and all… Read More


ASML More Covid Concerns and Impact

ASML More Covid Concerns and Impact
by Robert Maire on 07-19-2020 at 6:00 am

ASML Covid
  • Covid related Revenue Rec causes rev/EPS miss
  • Sharp order drop reflects H2 industry uncertainty
  • EUV remains solid- Memory/Logic mix is better

Results were in line after correcting Covid Caused Revenue Rec issue-
ASML reported revenues of Euro3.3B and EPS of Euro1.79 as revenues from two EUV systems was not recognized, due to … Read More