TSMC stops doing business with Huawei!

TSMC stops doing business with Huawei!
by Robert Maire on 05-18-2020 at 9:30 am

China Semiconductor Ban Huawei

Hours after agreeing to build a fab in US TSMC will stop selling to Huawei- Repercussions will reverberate through all tech: Semis, semi equip, chip customers, all collateral damage.

It has been reported by Nikkei and other sources that TSMC has stopped taking orders from Huawei in order to comply with US export controls.

HUAWEIRead More


KLA – Keep Looking Ahead because we don’t know the future of China & Covid

KLA – Keep Looking Ahead because we don’t know the future of China & Covid
by Robert Maire on 05-11-2020 at 6:00 am

KLAC Covid SemiWiki

-Great quarter & execution with minimal Covid impact
-Wide guide is better than no guide as future is very fuzzy
-Feels like slightly down H2 W/ unknown embargo impact

KLA is virtually unscathed by Covid for now at least
KLA put up a very solid quarter with revenues of $1.424B and Non GAAP EPS of $2.47 versus street of $1.39B and … Read More


Covid Created Collateral China Crisis

Covid Created Collateral China Crisis
by Robert Maire on 05-03-2020 at 6:00 am

China US Trade Agreement 2020

Economic damage-
China relationship damage will far outlast direct Covid19 logistics impact-
Economic damage could be huge but trade damage could be larger with more specific impact on chips-

A long build up to a China trade nuclear winter, the “drum-beat of war”
When we started talking about a potential chip trade… Read More


LRCX Supply constrained by Covid Crisis

LRCX Supply constrained by Covid Crisis
by Robert Maire on 04-26-2020 at 8:00 am

LCRX Lam Research 2020 COVID

Lam Q1 revenue soft by roughly 15% due to supply side
Demand remains solid for Q2 but beyond that, dubious
No guide but Q2 could be => Q1 revenues
NAND solid, China big @ 32%, Foundry remains great

Lam reported a solid quarter but light on revenues…
It was no surprise that Lam reported revenues of $2.5B versus their original… Read More


ASML A Scenario More Lumpy While Demand and Tech Remain Solid Despite Covid Delays

ASML A Scenario More Lumpy While Demand and Tech Remain Solid Despite Covid Delays
by Robert Maire on 04-22-2020 at 2:00 pm

ASML SemiWiki 2020

Covid issues create “lumpy” quarters due to delays
Orders & demand remain solid and strong
2020 Year financials intact so far but ignore Qtrs
Taking prudent actions- no buybacks or guidance

As expected, Covid impacts both shipments & supply chain, ignore the near term lumpiness…
ASML reported revenues… Read More


Short vs Long Term Covid19 Impact

Short vs Long Term Covid19 Impact
by Robert Maire on 04-19-2020 at 10:00 am

Covid Semiconductor

-Short term Covid19 impact is primarily logistics related
-Longer term impact is more systemic/demand driven
-Impact will wind through supply chain over several qtrs
-Other issues, such as trade, remain an overhang

Short term versus long term in the semiconductor industry
The stocks declines over the last months seem to indicate… Read More


Newsflash Chip Equip Blockade back on!

Newsflash Chip Equip Blockade back on!
by Robert Maire on 03-29-2020 at 2:00 pm

US China Blockade


Blocking chip sales to Huawei back on front burner
Covid19 & China Trade are equally bad
Long lived Uncertainty could “plague” industry sales going forward
Political Predictability worse than Disease Predictability

Reuters broke a story today that the proposed licensing of chip equipment to prevent “bad… Read More


COVID-19 Chip Cycle – How deep, long and what shape?

COVID-19 Chip Cycle – How deep, long and what shape?
by Robert Maire on 03-26-2020 at 10:00 am

Covid 19 Semiconductors SemiWiki 1

It is a demand driven downturn – harder to predict
It may not be “business as usual” after this virus
What systemic changes could the industry face?

Trying to figure out another cycle-driven by inorganic catalyst

Investors and industry participants in the semiconductor industry who are used to normal cyclical… Read More


Will the Q1 Haircut become Covid-19 Crew Cut in Q2?

Will the Q1 Haircut become Covid-19 Crew Cut in Q2?
by Robert Maire on 03-16-2020 at 5:00 am

Corvid 19 Crew Cut Semiwiki
  • Corona impact growing exponentially in chip food chain
  • YMTC in Wuhan may be “patient zero”
  • Q1 revenue haircuts may turn into Q2 crewcuts
  • Working from home really doesn’t work

When does a haircut become a crew cut in revenues?
All the major semiconductor equipment makers took a significant haircut to their Q1… Read More


COVID-19 Collateral Chip Collision – Will Fabs & Foundries Flounder?

COVID-19 Collateral Chip Collision – Will Fabs & Foundries Flounder?
by Robert Maire on 03-05-2020 at 6:00 am

Corvid 19 SemiWiki

Corona Fab Impact –
lower production/raise prices
Chip production supply chain may break
It could temporarily fix memory oversupply
Could it risk the fall roll out of next Iphone

The ” Two week tango” – Waiting games at fabs
When a highly specialized piece of semiconductor equipment misbehaves to the… Read More