LRCX- Mediocre, flattish, long, U shaped bottom- No recovery in sight yet-2025?

LRCX- Mediocre, flattish, long, U shaped bottom- No recovery in sight yet-2025?
by Robert Maire on 04-29-2024 at 8:00 am

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– Lam reports another flat quarter & guide- No recovery in sight yet
– Seems like no expectation of recovery until 2025- Mixed results
– DRAM good- NAND weak- Foundry/Logic mixed-Mature weakening
– Clearly disappointing to investors & stock hoping for a chip recovery

Another Flat Quarter &
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ASML – Strong order start on long road to 2025 recovery – 24 flat vs 23 – EUV shines

ASML – Strong order start on long road to 2025 recovery – 24 flat vs 23 – EUV shines
by Robert Maire on 01-26-2024 at 6:00 am

ASML Cleanroom EUV Wafer Stage Training

– ASML orders more than triple sequentially- Utilization increases
– Management remains conservative with flat revenues 2024 vs 2023
– Recovery will be slow, targeting 2025- Long & weak cyclical bottom
– Litho orders are leading indicator of future wider recovery

Strong orders pave the way for
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2024 Semiconductor Cycle Outlook – The Shape of Things to Come – Where we Stand

2024 Semiconductor Cycle Outlook – The Shape of Things to Come – Where we Stand
by Robert Maire on 01-24-2024 at 6:00 am

Semiconductor Industry Outlook 2024
  • What kind of recovery do we expect, if any, after 2 down years?
  • What impact will China have on the recovery of mature market chips?
  • What will memory recovery look like? Will we return to stupid spend?
  • Stock selection ever more critical in tepid recovery
Chip stocks have rocketed but the industry itself, not so much, “Anticipation….is
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Is Intel cornering the market in ASML High NA tools? Not repeating EUV mistake

Is Intel cornering the market in ASML High NA tools? Not repeating EUV mistake
by Robert Maire on 12-24-2023 at 9:00 am

High NA EUV
  • Reports suggest Intel will get 6 of 10 ASML High NA tools in 2024
  • Would give Intel a huge head start over TSMC & Samsung
  • A big gamble but a potentially huge pay off
  • Does this mean $4B in High NA tool sales for ASML in 2024?

News suggests Intel will get 6 of first 10 High NA tools made by ASML in 2024

An industry news source, Trendforce, reports… Read More


The Coming China Chipocalypse – Trade Sanctions Backfire – Chips versus Equipment

The Coming China Chipocalypse – Trade Sanctions Backfire – Chips versus Equipment
by Robert Maire on 11-15-2023 at 10:00 am

China Sino US
  • China Chip Sanctions have had opposite of intended effect
  • Helps AMAT, LRCX, KLAC & TEL- Hurts Micron and GloFo
  • Tsunami of Chinese capacity will hurt memory & 2nd tier chip makers
  • The probability of a much longer chip downcycle is increasing
China is cornering the market on Semiconductor equipment

Quarterly reports from… Read More


ASML- Longer Deeper Downcycle finally hits lithography – Flat 2024 – Weak Memory – Bottom?

ASML- Longer Deeper Downcycle finally hits lithography – Flat 2024 – Weak Memory – Bottom?
by Robert Maire on 10-20-2023 at 8:00 am

ASML Monopoly
  • ASML reports in-line QTR but future looks flat for 2024
  • Downcycle finally hits litho leader- ASML monopoly solid as ever
  • Memory remains bleak – New China sanctions unclear
  • Recovery timing is unclear but planning for an up 2025
In Line Quarter and year as expected

Overall revenues came in at Euro6.7B with EPS at Euro4.81, more… Read More


ASML- Absolutely Solid Monopoly in Lithography- Ignoring hysteria & stupidity

ASML- Absolutely Solid Monopoly in Lithography- Ignoring hysteria & stupidity
by Robert Maire on 10-17-2023 at 8:00 am

ASML Monopoly
  • This past weeks over-reaction to Canon echoes the Sculpta Scare
  • Nanoimprint has made huge strides but is still not at all competitive
  • Shows basic lack of understanding of technology by some pundits
  • Chip industry has been searching for alternatives that don’t exist
Much ado about nothing much…..

This past week we … Read More


SPIE- EUV & Photomask conference- Anticipating High NA- Mask Size Matters- China

SPIE- EUV & Photomask conference- Anticipating High NA- Mask Size Matters- China
by Robert Maire on 10-09-2023 at 6:00 am

Conference EUV Lithography

– SPIE EUV & Photomask conference well attended with great talks
– Chip industry focused on next gen High NA EUV & what it impacts
– Do big chips=big masks? Another Actinic tool?
– AI & chip tools, a game changer- China pre-empting more sanctions

The SPIE EUV & Photomask conference in Monterey
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AMAT- Trailing Edge & China Almost Offset Floundering Foundry & Missing Memory

AMAT- Trailing Edge & China Almost Offset Floundering Foundry & Missing Memory
by Robert Maire on 05-22-2023 at 8:00 am

Amat China

-AMAT reported inline resulted helped by trailing edge & China
-Memory remains at very low levels- Foundry remains uninspiring
-China seems to be buying anything they are allowed to buy
-The recovery is too far out & unknown to handicap

Quarter was OK and Guidance also OK

Revenue was $6.63B and EPS of $1.86 versus reduced… Read More


AMAT- Flat is better than down-Trailing tool strength offsets memory- backlog up

AMAT- Flat is better than down-Trailing tool strength offsets memory- backlog up
by Robert Maire on 02-20-2023 at 10:00 am

AMAT CVD 3

-Strength in trailing tools offsets weak memory resulting in flat
-Order book very volatile but backlog surprisingly still grew
-Trailing edge VS Leading edge = 50/50 – Foundry/logic over 2/3
-Not nearly as bad as Lam but not as good as ASML

AMAT posts good quarter & guide – Flat for three quarters

Applied Materials… Read More