KLAC put up a great quarter coming in at revenues of $1.07B and EPS of $2.22. Guidance is for $1.03B to $1.1B with EPS of $2 to $2.32. Both reported and guided were at the high end of the range and above consensus. We had suggested in our preview notes that KLAC would be the least impacted of the big three (AMAT, LRCX & KLAC) semi equipment… Read More
Lam Research (LRCX) reported a great June quarter coming in at $3.126B in revenues and $5.31 in EPS easily beating the street’s $3.06B and EPS of $4.94. However no one will care as guidance for the September quarter is for $2.3B in revs and EPS of $3.20, way, well below the already downward revised estimates of $2.77B and $3.88.… Read More
The stock market hates uncertainty most of all. In the absence of the known, the market will assume the worst or close to it. Right now there is a lot of uncertainty that continues to have more downside beta than upside beta. Everybody we spoke to at Semicon wakes up in the morning wondering what tweet was sent at 5AM that will impact their… Read More
China didn’t wait around for the US to announce more tariffs or export restrictions, instead it went on the offensive and put an injunction in place to prevent Micron from shipping product into China. Although our view is that Micron will see little impact from this action, the headlines caused the semiconductor sector stocks… Read More
As we have been warning for months the China trade issue continues to grow and accelerate. As we are approaching the June 30th cliff (when export sanctions will be announced) it seems as if the administration has given the industry a kick so we fly even further. The US will also restrict Chinese investment in US tech companies. The … Read More
It appears the current cycle has rolled over? The reason is memory & could be worsened by trade Figuring out length, depth and impact of the downturn? We had said that AMAT “called” the top of the cycle on their last conference call even though they may not think so. Semiconductor cycles always ends the same way. The… Read More
Maybe OMEC is the new OPEC? A bargaining chip in June trade show down?
China has started an apparent investigation into pricing of DRAM memory with Samsung, Micron and SK Hynix as targets. We find this somewhat coincidental given the current trade issues. Memory pricing has been unusually strong for a very long time. Much longer … Read More
Three critical China issues; Trade, Taiwan & Technology. China is a “double edge sword” of risk & opportunity. These issues greatly impact stock valuations. We have recently given a presentation at both the SEMI ASMC conference in Saratoga Springs and The Confab conference in Las Vegas. Both conferences… Read More
We have been on a roller coaster ride of on again off again trade talk between China and the US. It is unclear where we are on a day by day basis but of late it appears that we are not seeing a lot of progress and some progress we thought we had made may not have actually happened.… Read More
We have been watching the ZTE saga play out on the public stage as we think it is an extremely important leading example of how the administration will truly act. As we all know, actions speak louder than words, and in the case of ZTE our words said one thing and our actions said something else. We need to analyze what the actions really… Read More
