GloFo dropping out of 7NM race?

GloFo dropping out of 7NM race?
by Robert Maire on 08-27-2018 at 12:00 pm

Could this be more bad news for semicap spend? Negative for US chip independence & AMD costs ? Rumors of Global Foundries dropping out of the 7NM race have been increasing rapidly. What could be a fatal blow to the GloFo 7NM program was AMD deciding to go with TSMC for 7NM first for one product and finally for its next generation CPUs.… Read More


AMAT down 10% as expected Foundry spending slow down unexpected

AMAT down 10% as expected Foundry spending slow down unexpected
by Robert Maire on 08-19-2018 at 12:00 pm

Applied reported a more or less in line quarter, slightly beating weaker expectations. As we had projected, the October quarter is expected to have revenues down 10% which is at the low end of our expected 10-15% drop in business. Applied services helped partially make up for some of the equipment sales weakness. Revenue came in … Read More


Chip Stocks have been Choppy but China may return

Chip Stocks have been Choppy but China may return
by Robert Maire on 08-19-2018 at 7:00 am

Applied Materials (AMAT) is batting clean up in a quarter that has not been pretty. Lately semi stocks seem to have been hit by not only stock specific issues but continued and increasing memory concerns coupled with more macro issues. On top of all this, China trade issues which have in the meantime taken a back burner to other issues… Read More


KLAC gets an EUV Kicker

KLAC gets an EUV Kicker
by Robert Maire on 08-02-2018 at 7:00 am

KLAC put up a great quarter coming in at revenues of $1.07B and EPS of $2.22. Guidance is for $1.03B to $1.1B with EPS of $2 to $2.32. Both reported and guided were at the high end of the range and above consensus. We had suggested in our preview notes that KLAC would be the least impacted of the big three (AMAT, LRCX & KLAC) semi equipment… Read More


Samsung Memory is easy come easy go but for how low?

Samsung Memory is easy come easy go but for how low?
by Robert Maire on 07-29-2018 at 8:00 am

Lam Research (LRCX) reported a great June quarter coming in at $3.126B in revenues and $5.31 in EPS easily beating the street’s $3.06B and EPS of $4.94. However no one will care as guidance for the September quarter is for $2.3B in revs and EPS of $3.20, way, well below the already downward revised estimates of $2.77B and $3.88.… Read More


Semicon Wrap Up holding pattern in turbulent air

Semicon Wrap Up holding pattern in turbulent air
by Robert Maire on 07-16-2018 at 7:00 am

The stock market hates uncertainty most of all. In the absence of the known, the market will assume the worst or close to it. Right now there is a lot of uncertainty that continues to have more downside beta than upside beta. Everybody we spoke to at Semicon wakes up in the morning wondering what tweet was sent at 5AM that will impact their… Read More


China Trade war is accelerating with First Blood in Chips

China Trade war is accelerating with First Blood in Chips
by Robert Maire on 07-09-2018 at 7:00 am

China didn’t wait around for the US to announce more tariffs or export restrictions, instead it went on the offensive and put an injunction in place to prevent Micron from shipping product into China. Although our view is that Micron will see little impact from this action, the headlines caused the semiconductor sector stocks… Read More


The Technology China Trade Growing Snowball

The Technology China Trade Growing Snowball
by Robert Maire on 06-28-2018 at 12:00 pm

As we have been warning for months the China trade issue continues to grow and accelerate. As we are approaching the June 30th cliff (when export sanctions will be announced) it seems as if the administration has given the industry a kick so we fly even further. The US will also restrict Chinese investment in US tech companies. The … Read More


Semiconductor Cycles Always End the Same Way

Semiconductor Cycles Always End the Same Way
by Robert Maire on 06-24-2018 at 3:00 pm

It appears the current cycle has rolled over? The reason is memory & could be worsened by trade Figuring out length, depth and impact of the downturn? We had said that AMAT “called” the top of the cycle on their last conference call even though they may not think so. Semiconductor cycles always ends the same way. The… Read More


Are memory makers colluding against China?

Are memory makers colluding against China?
by Robert Maire on 06-07-2018 at 12:00 pm

Maybe OMEC is the new OPEC? A bargaining chip in June trade show down?

China has started an apparent investigation into pricing of DRAM memory with Samsung, Micron and SK Hynix as targets. We find this somewhat coincidental given the current trade issues. Memory pricing has been unusually strong for a very long time. Much longer … Read More