Sino Semicap Sanction Screws Snugged- SVB- Aftermath more important than event

Sino Semicap Sanction Screws Snugged- SVB- Aftermath more important than event
by Robert Maire on 03-15-2023 at 10:00 am

China Chip Embargo

-Reports of further tightening of China SemiCap Restrictions
-Likely closing loopholes & pushing back technology line
-Dutch have joined, Japan will too- So far no Chinese reaction
-SVB is toast but repercussions may be far worse

Reports of tightening semiconductor sanctions on Friday

It was reported byBloomberg of Friday… Read More


Report from SPIE- EUV’s next 15 years- AMAT “Sculpta” braggadocio rollout

Report from SPIE- EUV’s next 15 years- AMAT “Sculpta” braggadocio rollout
by Robert Maire on 03-06-2023 at 10:00 am

EUV DUV Lithography

-We attended the SPIE lithography Conference in San Jose
-No significant news or announcements on EUV
-Focus on 500WPM target and High & Hyper NA rollout
-AMAT overblown Sculpta-Not exactly what its cracked up to be

SPIE Lithography 2023

We have been attending SPIE for many years now and are happy to see a return to pre Covid levels… Read More


AMAT- Flat is better than down-Trailing tool strength offsets memory- backlog up

AMAT- Flat is better than down-Trailing tool strength offsets memory- backlog up
by Robert Maire on 02-20-2023 at 10:00 am

AMAT CVD 3

-Strength in trailing tools offsets weak memory resulting in flat
-Order book very volatile but backlog surprisingly still grew
-Trailing edge VS Leading edge = 50/50 – Foundry/logic over 2/3
-Not nearly as bad as Lam but not as good as ASML

AMAT posts good quarter & guide – Flat for three quarters

Applied Materials… Read More


KLAC- Weak Guide-2023 will “drift down”-Not just memory weak, China & logic too

KLAC- Weak Guide-2023 will “drift down”-Not just memory weak, China & logic too
by Robert Maire on 02-06-2023 at 6:00 am

KLAC Tencor SemiWiki

-Business will “drift down” over the course of 2023
-Not just memory is weak- China issue, foundry/logic slowing
-March guide worse than expected (Like Lam)
-Backlog likely saw push outs & cancelations but still long

Good quarter but weak guide

Much as we saw with Lam, KLA reported a beat on the December quarter… Read More


Hynix historic loss confirms memory meltdown-getting worse – AMD a bright spot

Hynix historic loss confirms memory meltdown-getting worse – AMD a bright spot
by Robert Maire on 02-03-2023 at 8:00 am

Memory Meltdown

-Hynix reports worst downturn in 10yrs – Already in red ink
-If the #2 memory maker is already negative what does it say?
-Confirms our view of 2023 write off- maybe 2024 better?
-Micron Mangled? & Toshiba Toast?- Buyers advantage

Hynix posts record $1.4B loss- worst in 10 years

Not all that surprisingly Hynix reported… Read More


Samsung- full capex speed ahead, damn the downturn- Has Micron in its crosshairs

Samsung- full capex speed ahead, damn the downturn- Has Micron in its crosshairs
by Robert Maire on 02-02-2023 at 2:00 pm

Samsung Electronics

-Samsung said its not reducing its capex despite downturn
-A clear indication they want to take share/kill Micron & others
-Is the US government subsidizing predatory chip behavior?
-The last US memory chip maker is clearly threatened

Samsung announces worst results in 8 years

Samsung released its earnings which were the… Read More


U.S., Japan & Dutch versus China Chips & Memory looks to be in a long downturn

U.S., Japan & Dutch versus China Chips & Memory looks to be in a long downturn
by Robert Maire on 02-01-2023 at 2:00 pm

US Japan China

-US, Japan & Dutch agree to embargo some China chip equip
-Goes beyond just leading edge & will increase negative impact
-China might catch up in decades or invade Taiwan tomorrow
-Why the memory downturn could be longer than expected

Ganging up on China

It appears that the US has put together a coalition of the US, Japan and… Read More


Lam chops guidance, outlook, headcount- an ugly, long downturn- memory plunges

Lam chops guidance, outlook, headcount- an ugly, long downturn- memory plunges
by Robert Maire on 01-31-2023 at 2:00 pm

Lamb chops

-Lam Research chops guidance, outlook & headcount sharply
-Further declines as 2023 will be H1 weighted- No end in sight
-System sales cut by more than half as even service is cut
-Memory is the culprit as expected-Forcing business “reset”

A sad sounding conference call….

While Lam reported a good December,… Read More


ASML – Powering through weakness – Almost untouchable – Lead times exceed downturn

ASML – Powering through weakness – Almost untouchable – Lead times exceed downturn
by Robert Maire on 01-26-2023 at 10:00 am

Robert Maire Bloomberg

-Demand far exceeds supply & much longer than any downturn
-Full speed ahead-$40B in solid backlog provides great comfort
-ASP increase shows strength- China is non issue
-In a completely different league than other equipment makers

Reports a good beat & Guide

Revenues were Euro6.4B with system sales making up Euro4.7B… Read More


Where there’s Smoke there’s Fire: UCTT ICHR LRCX AMAT KLAC Memory

Where there’s Smoke there’s Fire: UCTT ICHR LRCX AMAT KLAC Memory
by Robert Maire on 01-16-2023 at 10:00 am

Stock Market on Fire

-UCTT & ICHR both pre announce ugly QTR & blame memory
-LRCX is the memory “poster child” & most impacted
-This is on top of China & Economic issues & memory specific
-Clearing out inventory is a sign of expected slow recovery

UCTT & ICHR pre-announce ugly quarters

Both UCTT & ICHR that … Read More