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- Reports suggest Intel will get 6 of 10 ASML High NA tools in 2024
- Would give Intel a huge head start over TSMC & Samsung
- A big gamble but a potentially huge pay off
- Does this mean $4B in High NA tool sales for ASML in 2024?
News suggests Intel will get 6 of first 10 High NA tools made by ASML in 2024
An industry news source, Trendforce, reports… Read More
– News that AMAT facing criminal charges for violating China sanctions
– Sounds like Ion implant tools sent to SMIC in China via South Korea
– Criminal probe goes back to shipments starting in 2021 & 2022
– Overshadows an otherwise OK quarter and outlook
Reuters broke the news on the day of earnings
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- China Chip Sanctions have had opposite of intended effect
- Helps AMAT, LRCX, KLAC & TEL- Hurts Micron and GloFo
- Tsunami of Chinese capacity will hurt memory & 2nd tier chip makers
- The probability of a much longer chip downcycle is increasing
China is cornering the market on Semiconductor equipment
Quarterly reports from… Read More
- KLA has an OK quarter in an ugly market- bouncing along bottom
- Like Lam & ASML, China was huge at 43% represents more risk
- 2/3 Foundry/logic, 1/3 memory – Process tools were weak
- No change, stable , no visibility on recovery
Quarter and guide were good in continued ugly industry
As expected KLAC reported earnings at the … Read More
- LRCX has OK QTR but “challenging outlook” – Memory still sucks
- China at 48% is a huge risk given potential of more sanctions
- Leading & trailing logic both poor- no recovery in sight yet
- Memory spending at historical lows for NAND
Quarter came in OK but outlook seems weak and unclear
Revenues came in at $3.48B… Read More
- ASML reports in-line QTR but future looks flat for 2024
- Downcycle finally hits litho leader- ASML monopoly solid as ever
- Memory remains bleak – New China sanctions unclear
- Recovery timing is unclear but planning for an up 2025
In Line Quarter and year as expected
Overall revenues came in at Euro6.7B with EPS at Euro4.81, more… Read More
- This past weeks over-reaction to Canon echoes the Sculpta Scare
- Nanoimprint has made huge strides but is still not at all competitive
- Shows basic lack of understanding of technology by some pundits
- Chip industry has been searching for alternatives that don’t exist
Much ado about nothing much…..
This past week we … Read More
– SPIE EUV & Photomask conference well attended with great talks
– Chip industry focused on next gen High NA EUV & what it impacts
– Do big chips=big masks? Another Actinic tool?
– AI & chip tools, a game changer- China pre-empting more sanctions
The SPIE EUV & Photomask conference in Monterey
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- The memory down cycle is longer/deeper than many thought
- The recovery will be slower than past cycles- a “U” rather than “V”
- AI & new apps don’t make up for macro weakness
- Negative for overall semis & equip- Could China extend downcycle?
Micron report suggests a longer deeper down cycle
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- Huawei’s 7NM chip? This wasn’t supposed to happen
- Are Chips a weapon for U.S. or China? Role reversal?
- Will Taiwan turn from protected asset to unwanted liability?
- Are sanctions so porous that US has already lost to China?
While EUV is critical to advanced chips there are workarounds
Many people either thought or assumed… Read More
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