Will Semiconductor earnings live up to the Investor hype?

Will Semiconductor earnings live up to the Investor hype?
by Claus Aasholm on 07-10-2024 at 10:00 am

NVIDIA Fastest Growing Semiconductor company

The state of the Semiconductor Industry before the earnings season. This post will give the industry’s status before the results are revealed. We are sharing the information available.

The first Q2 swallows
A few companies with quarters not aligned to calendar quarters have reported. Nvidia was slightly ahead of expectations,… Read More


Oops, we did it again! Memory Companies Investment Strategy

Oops, we did it again! Memory Companies Investment Strategy
by Claus Aasholm on 05-08-2024 at 8:00 am

Opps We Did it Again Semiconductor Memory 4

We are in the semiconductor market phase where everybody disagrees on what is going on. The market is up; the market is down. Mobile phones are up…. oh no, now they are down. The PC market is up—oh no, we need to wait until we can get an AI PC. The inflation is high—the consumer is not buying.

For us in the industry, the 13-week financial … Read More


CHIPS Act and U.S. Fabs

CHIPS Act and U.S. Fabs
by Bill Jewell on 12-19-2023 at 10:00 am

Major Future US Fabs

In August 2022, U.S. President Biden signed into law the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 to provide incentives for semiconductor manufacturing in the United States. In a case of creating the acronym first and then finding a name to fit, CHIPS stands for Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors. The act provides a total… Read More


Semiconductors Headed Toward Strong 2024

Semiconductors Headed Toward Strong 2024
by Bill Jewell on 11-20-2023 at 6:00 am

Semiconductor Market Change 4Q23

The global semiconductor market is now solidly in a turnaround. WSTS revised its data for 2Q 2023 growth over 1Q 2023 to 6.0% from 4.2% previously. 3Q 2023 was up 6.3% from 2Q 2023. With our Semiconductor Intelligence forecast of 3% growth in 4Q 2023, the year-to-year growth in 4Q 2023 will be a positive 6%. This will set the stage for… Read More


The Coming China Chipocalypse – Trade Sanctions Backfire – Chips versus Equipment

The Coming China Chipocalypse – Trade Sanctions Backfire – Chips versus Equipment
by Robert Maire on 11-15-2023 at 10:00 am

China Sino US
  • China Chip Sanctions have had opposite of intended effect
  • Helps AMAT, LRCX, KLAC & TEL- Hurts Micron and GloFo
  • Tsunami of Chinese capacity will hurt memory & 2nd tier chip makers
  • The probability of a much longer chip downcycle is increasing
China is cornering the market on Semiconductor equipment

Quarterly reports from… Read More


KLAC- OK quarter in ugly environment- Big China $ – Little Process $ – Legacy good

KLAC- OK quarter in ugly environment- Big China $ – Little Process $ – Legacy good
by Robert Maire on 10-29-2023 at 10:00 am

KLAC Tencor
  • KLA has an OK quarter in an ugly market- bouncing along bottom
  • Like Lam & ASML, China was huge at 43% represents more risk
  • 2/3 Foundry/logic, 1/3 memory – Process tools were weak
  • No change, stable , no visibility on recovery
Quarter and guide were good in continued ugly industry

As expected KLAC reported earnings at the … Read More


Micron Chip & Memory Down Cycle – It Ain’t Over Til it’s Over Maybe Longer and Deeper

Micron Chip & Memory Down Cycle – It Ain’t Over Til it’s Over Maybe Longer and Deeper
by Robert Maire on 10-01-2023 at 6:00 pm

china 800 pound gorilla
  • The memory down cycle is longer/deeper than many thought
  • The recovery will be slower than past cycles- a “U” rather than “V”
  • AI & new apps don’t make up for macro weakness
  •  Negative for overall semis & equip- Could China extend downcycle?
Micron report suggests a longer deeper down cycle
Read More

Semiconductor Devices: 3 Tricks to Device Innovation

Semiconductor Devices: 3 Tricks to Device Innovation
by Milind Welling on 09-22-2023 at 8:00 am

Semiconductor Devices 3 Tricks to Device Innovation 1

The semiconductor industry’s incredible juggernaut has been powered by device innovations at its very core. Moreover, present-day enterprises encounter immense competitive pressures and innovations are a key differentiator to maintain their competitive edge1.

“It wasn’t that Microsoft was so brilliant or cleverRead More


ASML Wavering- Supports our Concern of Second Leg Down for Semis- False Bottom

ASML Wavering- Supports our Concern of Second Leg Down for Semis- False Bottom
by Robert Maire on 04-21-2023 at 8:00 am

Semiconductor False Bottom

-ASML weakness is evidence of deeper chip down cycle
-When ASML sneezes other chip equip makers catch a cold
-Will backlog last long enough? Will EUV demand hold up?
-“Unthinkable” event, litho cancelations, could shock industry

ASML has in line quarter but alarm bells ring on wavering outlook

ASML reported Euro6.7B… Read More


Micron Ugly Free Fall Continues as Downcycle Shapes Come into Focus

Micron Ugly Free Fall Continues as Downcycle Shapes Come into Focus
by Robert Maire on 12-26-2022 at 6:00 am

Micron Crashing 2022

-Micron off the proverbial cliff and falling faster
-Looking at a much longer/deeper decline in memory
-Layoffs, capex cuts, slowdowns- battening down the hatches
-Micron seems to imply more of a “U” or “L” shaped downcycle

Micron’s numbers as bad as we expected And much worse than most on the

Read More