Double-digit semiconductor decline in 2019

Double-digit semiconductor decline in 2019
by Bill Jewell on 06-27-2019 at 4:00 pm

The global semiconductor market is headed for a double-digit decline for the year 2019 after a decline of 15.6% in first quarter 2019 from fourth quarter 2018. According to WSTS (World Semiconductor Trade Statistics) data, this was the largest quarter-to-quarter decline since a 16.3% decline in first quarter 2009, ten years … Read More


Micron beats subdued guidance on output cuts

Micron beats subdued guidance on output cuts
by Robert Maire on 06-26-2019 at 5:00 am

2020 capex likely down at least 20% vs 2019 DRAM & NAND price drops versus slowing capacity. Investors happy cause it could have been worse.

Micron reported $1.05 in Non-GAAP EPS beating street consensus of $0.79 by $0.26. While this looks like a big beat, we would remind investors that estimates for the quarter were about… Read More


A Tale of Two Semis

A Tale of Two Semis
by Robert Maire on 04-21-2019 at 7:00 am

It was the best of times (for stocks)
It was the worst of times (for memory chips)
The disconnect between stock & chip prices

The Venn Diagram of Stocks and Chips

Having been involved with semiconductor and tech stocks for a long time there has always been a loose correlation between the fortunes of the industry and the fortunes… Read More


Moore’s Law extended with new "gateless" transistor

Moore’s Law extended with new "gateless" transistor
by Robert Maire on 04-01-2019 at 10:00 am

Micron Buries the Hatchet with China
Micron has a very long history of counter cyclical investing, buying the assets of vanquished competitors when the memory industry is at the bottom of the cycle, such as it is right now.

Over the weekend, Micron announced that it had an agreement to acquire the assets of the now stalled Jinhua memory… Read More


Could China Conflict Curtail Chip Comeback? Part 2

Could China Conflict Curtail Chip Comeback? Part 2
by Robert Maire on 12-07-2018 at 12:00 pm

In our recent note sent several days ago we suggested that the China conflict would come back to haunt the US chip industry. From a stock perspective we suggested taking short term gains from a recent bounce back off the table. Both ideas turned out true, but way faster than we had thought! Not only have investors figured out that the… Read More


The Disconnect Between Semiconductor and Semiconductor Equipment Revenues

The Disconnect Between Semiconductor and Semiconductor Equipment Revenues
by Robert Castellano on 11-27-2018 at 7:00 am

Historically, the semiconductor and semiconductor equipment industry were inextricably linked due to the cyclical nature of the chip industry. An increase in semiconductor revenues was followed within a short period with an increase in equipment revenues, as semiconductor companies purchased equipment to make more chips… Read More


More Negative Semiconductor News

More Negative Semiconductor News
by Robert Maire on 09-24-2018 at 7:00 am

The amount of negative news and information about the semiconductor industry seems to be increasing at a faster rate. Micron put up a better quarter than expected but more importantly guided less than expected. We are surprised that the street is surprised as the decline in memory pricing is well known and Micron has been clear about… Read More


Is the Q4 Bounce Back now a 2009 Recovery?

Is the Q4 Bounce Back now a 2009 Recovery?
by Robert Maire on 09-10-2018 at 7:00 am

Last week saw a unique confluence of events that continue the negative news flow in semicap following the story about GloFo. At a financial conference, Micron’s CFO said NAND prices were declining, this was on top of an analyst note in the morning about the same issue. Even though this should be no surprise as memory has had … Read More


Welcome DDR5 and Thanks to Cadence IP and Test Chip

Welcome DDR5 and Thanks to Cadence IP and Test Chip
by Eric Esteve on 05-25-2018 at 7:00 am

Will we see DDR5 memory (device) and memory controller (IP) in the near future? According with Cadence who has released the first test chip in the industry integrating DDR5 memory controller IP, fabricated in TSMC’s 7nm process and achieving a 4400 megatransfers per second (MT/sec) data rate, the answer is clearly YES !

Let’s come… Read More


Data Center Powers Intel but 10NM Still Slow

Data Center Powers Intel but 10NM Still Slow
by Robert Maire on 04-29-2018 at 12:00 pm

Intel (INTC) blew away expectations based on strong performance in the data center. Revenues of $16.1B versus street of $15.05B and EPS of $0.93 versus street of $0.72. While revenue was up 9% over prior year, earnings were 50% higher. Guidance is for Q2 revenue of $16.3B and EPS of $0.85 versus street of $15.55B and EPS of $0.81. IOT,… Read More