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KLAC – OK Qtr/Guide – Slow Growth – 2025 Leading Edge Offset by China – Mask Mash

KLAC – OK Qtr/Guide – Slow Growth – 2025 Leading Edge Offset by China – Mask Mash
by Robert Maire on 11-02-2024 at 8:00 am

KLAC 2024
  • KLA put up an OK Quarter & Guide with modest growth & outlook
  • 2025 remains slow growth as leading edge offset by China slowing
  • China sanctions remain a “great unknown”- impact unclear
  • Reticle biz getting squeezed from both high & low ends
OK quarter with slight beat as always- Guide is OK as well

KLA reported… Read More


LRCX- Coulda been worse but wasn’t so relief rally- Flattish is better than down

LRCX- Coulda been worse but wasn’t so relief rally- Flattish is better than down
by Robert Maire on 10-27-2024 at 8:00 am

Happy Lamb
  • Lam put in good quarter with flattish guide- still a slow recovery
  • This is better than worst case fears of order drop like ASML
  • China spend is slowing but tech spending increase offsets
  • Relief rally as the market was braced for bad news and got OK news
Lam has OK, slightly better than in line quarter with OK guide….

It coulda been… Read More


ASML surprise not a surprise (to us)- Bifurcation- Stocks reset- China headfake

ASML surprise not a surprise (to us)- Bifurcation- Stocks reset- China headfake
by Robert Maire on 10-16-2024 at 10:00 am

ASML 2024 Downturn
  • Investors finally realize the upcycle isn’t as strong as stocks indicated
  • Industry Bifurcation between AI & rest of industry continues
  • China spending risk/overhang finally kicks in
  • AI is super strong, majority of chips remain weak- Invest accordingly
ASML simply states chip industry reality that investors have
Read More

SPIE Monterey- ASML, INTC – High NA Readiness- Bigger Masks/Smaller Features

SPIE Monterey- ASML, INTC – High NA Readiness- Bigger Masks/Smaller Features
by Robert Maire on 10-08-2024 at 6:00 am

Christophe Fouquet SemiWiki

– SPIE Photomask -all about High NA and bigger masks
– High NA will ramp very fast & is ramping fast – two already at Intel
– Doubling size of photomask will offset High NA exposure size problem
– Assembling litho tools at customer saves time/money- “Scanner Kits”

Christophe Fouquet
Read More

Samsung Adds to Bad Semiconductor News

Samsung Adds to Bad Semiconductor News
by Robert Maire on 09-16-2024 at 6:00 am

Samsung Layoffs Intel
  • Samsung follows Intel in staff reductions due to weakness in chips
  • Chip industry split between haves & have nots (AI & rest of chips)
  • Capital spend under pressure – Facing Eventual China issues
  • Stick with monopolies, avoid commodities

Samsung announces layoffs amid weak chip business and outlook
Samsung announced… Read More


AMAT Underwhelms- China & GM & ICAP Headwinds- AI is only Driver- Slow Recovery

AMAT Underwhelms- China & GM & ICAP Headwinds- AI is only Driver- Slow Recovery
by Robert Maire on 08-19-2024 at 6:00 am

One Trick Pony
  • AMAT reports good but underwhelming quarter
  • China slowing creates revenue & GM headwinds- ICAPs weak
  • AI remains the one and only bright spot in both foundry & memory
  • Cyclical recovery remains slow – Single digit Y/Y growth
OK quarter – still slow growing, revs up only 5% Y/Y

AMAT came in at revenues of $6.78B… Read More


LRCX Good but not good enough results, AMAT Epic failure and Slow Steady Recovery

LRCX Good but not good enough results, AMAT Epic failure and Slow Steady Recovery
by Robert Maire on 08-04-2024 at 6:00 am

Chips Act 2024
  • Lam reported good numbers with slightly soft guide
  • Investors are figuring out the up cycle will be slower than thought
  • Looks like AMAT won’t get CHIPS act money for Epic facility
  • Steady improvement but stocks still ahead of themselves-Correction?
Lam reports good numbers (as usual) but guide not good enough

Lam reported… Read More


The China Syndrome- The Meltdown Starts- Trump Trounces Taiwan- Chips Clipped

The China Syndrome- The Meltdown Starts- Trump Trounces Taiwan- Chips Clipped
by Robert Maire on 07-18-2024 at 8:00 am

China Syndrome
  • The chip industry got a double tap of both China & Taiwan concerns
  • Bloomberg reported the potential for draconian China chip restrictions
  • Trump threw Taiwan under the bus demanding “protection money”
  • Over-inflated chip stocks had a “rapid unscheduled disassembly”
US looking to further restrict
Read More

SEMICON West- Jubilant huge crowds- HBM & AI everywhere – CHIPS Act & IMEC

SEMICON West- Jubilant huge crowds- HBM & AI everywhere – CHIPS Act & IMEC
by Robert Maire on 07-12-2024 at 6:00 am

Semicon West SF

– We just finished the most happy SEMICON West in a long time
– IMEC stole the show- HBM has more impact than size dictates
– Has Samsung lost its memory mojo? Is SK the new leader?
– AI brings new tech issues with it – TSMC is still industry King

Report from SEMICON West

The crowds at Semicon West were both… Read More


KLAC- Past bottom of cycle- up from here- early positive signs-packaging upside

KLAC- Past bottom of cycle- up from here- early positive signs-packaging upside
by Robert Maire on 05-02-2024 at 8:00 am

Semiconductor Manufacturing

– KLA reported a good QTR but more importantly passing the bottom
– Lead times mean KLA gets orders early in up cycle-just behind ASML
– Potential upside in upcycle as packaging needs more process control
– 2024 2nd half weighted with stronger recovery likely in 2025

A solid quarter as expected with good
Read More