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Google v. IBM v. Microsoft Artificial Intelligence Strategy Insights from Patents

Google v. IBM v. Microsoft Artificial Intelligence Strategy Insights from Patents
by Alex G. Lee on 04-01-2016 at 7:00 am

Patents can provide insights regarding the state of the art of artificial Intelligence (AI) technology innovation, and thus, a strategic move of a company for the AI innovation leadership. To compare the technology innovation strategy of the three leading companies in the AI business, Google, IBM and Microsoft, patent information is exploited for the cross-competitor analysis.

According to Dr. Benjamin Gilad with the Academy of Competitive Intelligence, the goal of the cross-competitor analysis is to enable one to simplify predictions of competitors’ moves and countermoves when multiple competitors are involved. Through the cross-competitor analysis, one can understand that: Competitors’ behavior when there are several significant competitors; Paradigm shifts in industries undergoing rapid change or transition; Entry of new competitors into the competitive landscape; Future directions in strategic move among industry contenders. The strategic map is a tool used in the cross-competitor analysis for visualizing the competitive landscape: A chart for a strategic parameter No.1 (e.g. product/service portfolio, distribution channel etc.) vs. a strategic parameter No.2 (e.g. product/service price, quality, brand etc.).

To do the cross-competitor analysis for the AI, US issued patents of Google, IBM and Microsoft that are related to the AI are reviewed for identifying patents that cover the major AI technology innovations: machine learning, neural network, expert system, fuzzy logic and genetic algorithm, and AI Applications. Total of 1087 Google, IBM and Microsoft patents are selected for the AI cross-competitor analysis. The key AI patents of Google, IBM and Microsoft account about 10% of total key AI issued patents in the US as of 1Q 2016.

Following figure shows the Activity Index vs. technology innovations strategic map for Google, IBM and Microsoft. The size of the circle represents the total number of the patents for each technology innovation. Activity Index is a measure of a company’s relative technology innovation activities in a specific technology innovation field: Activity Index = share of a specific innovation sub-class in a company/share of a company’s patent in total patents, where share of a specific innovation sub-class in a company = patents (innovation sub-class)/patents (a company) and share of a company’s patent in total patents = patents (a company)/patents (total companies).


The map clearly shows each company’s competitive advantage in the major AI technology innovations. Google’s AI technology innovation is focused on the neural network. In essence, a neural network is an attempt to simulate the human brain. IBM’s AI technology innovation is focused on the genetic algorithm. A genetic algorithm is a search heuristic that mimics the process of natural evolution, which used to generate useful solutions to complex problems. Microsoft holds comparatively large patents in the machine learning. A machine learning refers to intelligent systems that can learn from data, rather than merely follow explicit programmed instructions.


My morning with Andy Grove

My morning with Andy Grove
by Tom Mahon on 03-31-2016 at 4:00 pm

I worked briefly at Intel in 1991-2. At the time, the corporate culture was based on the theory of ‘constructive confrontation.’ For most, that meant that in the clash of good ideas, the best one would prevail. For some at Intel, however, constructive confrontation was a blood sport. (I trust things have improved in the past quarter century.)

On my second morning on the job I was walking down a hall and somebody I didn’t know rushed up to me, pointed to a nearby conference room, and said, “You’re supposed to be in that meeting. Get in there right now! Go on, get in there!” (I did as ordered. I was so low on the company’s org chart that, were Intel a ship, I wouldn’t have had assigned lifeboat space.)

So I went in to the meeting, and as soon as I sat down I realized that I was the victim of corporate hazing. It was a meeting of Andy Grove’s executive staff, and just as I was about to get up and get out, Dr. Grove walked in and took the only remaining seat. Right next to me.

Andy Grove was very smart, very observant and very outspoken. But although he looked directly at me as he sat down he didn’t notice, or didn’t seem to mind, there was a stranger in his staff meeting. So maybe he wasn’t all that paranoid, after all.

Andy opened the meeting by announcing that tomorrow during the quarterly financial analyst call, he was going to announce that Intel was about to become the second largest advertiser in the US, after Procter & Gamble. The program was to be called “Intel Inside,” and the budget was going to be (as best I remember) about a quarter of a billion dollars.

An unassuming man in a black suit, white shirt, and black tie across the table advised Andy that the better way to make the announcement would be to say, “We plan to increase revenue by X percent but it will require an investment of $Y.” “No,” said Grove, “I want to lead with the dollar figure. It will get their attention.”

“I really don’t think you should do it that way, Andy.”

“Well, I’m going to.”

“All right. But I’ll remember this when I do your performance review this year.” And with that, Dr Gordon Moore got up and left the room. And that was that.

That’s the day I learned that everybody – everybody! – reports to somebody. Grove reported to Moore, and maybe Moore went home to report to his wife.

Later in the morning meeting, a topic came up resulting in a heated conversation among Grove and his staff. It happened to be an issue I knew something about (tho I forget now what it was).

So I contributed my two cents, and immediately wanted to bite my tongue. What the hell was I doing!

But with that, Grove spun in his chair, looked right and me, slammed his palm on the conference table and said to his staff, “He’s right!’ Followed immediately by, “Whoareyou?”

And that was my introduction to Andy Grove. I wasn’t fired or promoted. But after that, whenever we passed in the halls, he’d nod and say hello. R.I.P.

© 2016, Tom Mahon


IOT – Job Killer of Job Creator

IOT – Job Killer of Job Creator
by Bill McCabe on 03-31-2016 at 12:00 pm

Is the IOT a Terminator or a Transformer? Where to look to get the most value out of the Internet of Things revolution. The rebooted Terminator movie came out earlier this summer. Its blasted, futuristic landscape of robot killers and gun-toting, warrior humans probably started with enhanced computer technology similar to what we are experiencing today with The Internet of Things. I’ll be in the theater with my popcorn wondering: Will all this connectivity ultimately enhance our human experience or will we end up like the people on-screen, fighting to keep our place in this new world?

Of course, the Terminator movie is science fiction. But let’s look at the connected devices trends that will either displace or generate new opportunities for those of us in the trenches.

Healthcare
In a recent Goldman Sachs report (June 29, 2015), analysts predict that the healthcare arena is slated to experience extremely high levels of change based on the IOT.

The service side of health care (hospitals, managed care) stands the most to gain from the adoption of digital health and IoT. Better patient management, streamlining the care continuum, reducing costly (and in some cases unnecessary) admissions all have the potential to improve the future economics for health care services,” said the Goldman Sachs report. “The first wave of health care IoT technologies that prove successful will be those that drive specific action to improve patient care and correspondingly reduce waste and cost.

I believe that this scenario provides more creative opportunities for connected Internet of Things developers in the healthcare space. Where can we take wearables in the digital age? We can reduce waste on the primary care side of things while creating opportunity for patients to gain unprecedented control of their health. And our IT geniuses can come up with new apps to connect it all.

Manufacturing
In a June 30, 2015 article in the Wall Street Journal, Ernst and Young’s acquisition of “the systems consulting arm of manufacturing intelligence firm Entegreat Inc.” is just the latest in the mergers and acquisition free-for-all in the IOT (more accurately, the Industrial Internet of Things) space. The opportunities for eliminating waste in the industry are almost as plentiful as the thousands of connections that result when every node in a supply chain—from suppliers to customers and back—is integrated. The production floor in an IOT-enabled factory will look quite different—yes, and probably will have fewer humans involved. However, the opportunity for job creation is endless—think about developers working to integrate old-school systems of record like MRP and ERP into new, cloud-based, mobile solutions. What about app developers—shop floor personnel might one day work from home—how can you translate inventory data streams, customer orders and work-in-process data to a tablet or mobile phone? These are the questions that new and emerging IT talents can sink their teeth into.

Everywhere Else
If you want to unlock the job creation potential of the Internet of Things, look no further than the latest McKinsey report. They’ve identified nine areas of growth to reach the $4 trillion to $11 trillion of value inherent in the IOT’s potential. I’m taking liberties here in placing the remaining seven (we’ve already talked about what McKinsey characterizes as the “human” (healthcare) and “factories” (manufacturing) categories) together in an overarching category of “everything else” with a few characteristics in common: Business Model and Modality Disruptions.

McKinsey talks about Business Model opportunities where the Internet of Things will create brand new ways of doing business. Its focus on “everything as a service” disrupting the traditional back-and-forth of business transactions is spot-on. However, the most opportunities for job creation (aside from the fact that these new business models might very well need a brand new breed of MBA) are what I call “modality disruptions.” These are the “how I will live my life” changes that provide the most value. For developers and IT professionals, this means that their discipline’s value will experience a sea change in the eyes of their leaders. With all of the changes in Cities; Homes; Vehicles, and among all of the categories of emerging value in IOT, the modality disruption of how we do business will ensure IT is not only an enabler; never again a not-so-benign cost center; but a true game changer whose capabilities will guarantee a company’s future—or its demise.

Give us your take on the Job Killer or Job Creatordebate – where do you stand, and what do you think will be the outcome.


IoT or Smart Everything?

IoT or Smart Everything?
by Daniel Payne on 03-31-2016 at 12:00 pm

I just attended a keynote presentation at SNUG from Aart de Geus, CEO of Synopsys. This event is well attended with some 2,500 people that are learning from the 96 presentations on all things Synopsys, semiconductor. IP, and foundry trends. There are big name sponsors like: GLOBALFOUNDRIES, Samsung, socioeconomic, TSMC, Fujitsu, SMIC, TowerJazz and UMC. India SNUG actually had a bigger attendance than Silicon Valley, and this is the 26th year for SNUG. When you count all 13 SNUG events world wide it comes out to about 10,000 attendees, that’s a lot of engineers.

The Technical Committee named their best paper award winner as GLOBALFOUNDRIES and their paper on FD-SOI at 22nm, known as 22FDx. We’ve blogged quite a bit about FD-SOI here on SemiWiki, and the potential to add lower power and lower costs than planar CMOS technology.

Aart gave another high energy talk and started with the revenue trends for the semiconductor industry showing a 4.4% CAGR. He sees three major industry eras for semiconductors as:

  • Compute – PC, Internet, Networking, Server, Cloud
  • Mobility – Phone, Smart Phone, Tablet, Apps
  • IoT

With IoT there are four possible places to sell products or services:

  • At the edge
  • In the fog, between edge and cloud
  • In the Cloud
  • The Apps

With sensor-rich IoT devices there are enormous amounts of data being collected, leading to the need for management and analysis, thus Big Data. Security is an immediate issue with IoT devices and in general anything that relies on cloud storage.

For software developers there’s an increased awareness to improve quality, security and safety. Is there a way to offer sign-off for software security? Synopsys thinks so, and has acquired companies in this space which produce about $100M in revenues.

Aart prefers to use the phrase “Smart Everything” instead of IoT because it is more descriptive of the general trend that consumers see today in Smart Phones, Smart Cars, Smart Homes, etc.

With IoT there are distinct market segments, like: Wearables, Health, home, city, auto, industrial, finance. In the automotive market there are existing and emerging standards for safety, quality and reliability. Synopsys offers their own IP that has been designed to meet the auto standards. Even DesignWare is growing to include a subsystem to handle all of the sensors typically used in IoT applications.

A popular slide showed the number of IC design starts using Synopsys tools by process node and time, so it’s exciting to see 10nm and 7nm designs coming to life so quickly.


IC Design Starts by Process Node over Time. Source: Synopsys

Following the industry trends, the keynote focused on improvements to specific Synopsys tools for logic synthesis, test, place & route, DRC, LVS, static timing analysis. Synopsys continues to collaborate closely with Eco-system partners like ARM for their processor IP, foundries, and leading-edge systems design companies.

One new development was in the area of Custom IC design, which has historically been a very manual-oriented process. Aart talked about Custom Compiler as a way for transistor-level designers to use a visually assisted automation approach, instead of the older schematic driven layout methods. Internally at Synopsys there are 2500 IC designers, and some of them have started to use Custom Compiler which now provides them with time reductions from 1 hour to just 5 minutes using templates and quick iterations. With FInFET transistors the IC designers certainly need help to deal with the increase in design rules, complexity of transistor fingers, increased amount of parasitic RCL elements.

A new technology called Cheetahwill speed up the VCS simulator on both RTL and gate-level runs from 5X to 30X by exploiting Fine Grain Parallelism. You’ll have to wait a while for actual product announcements, so stay tuned.

Synopsys is really trying to stretch the entire process from Silicon to Software by growing into the Software developer space.

In summary, we’re in the third wave now where Smart Everything (aka IoT) will drive new semiconductor designs and revenues.


Guard Vehicles from Cyber Attacks!

Guard Vehicles from Cyber Attacks!
by Roger C. Lanctot on 03-31-2016 at 7:00 am

Law enforcement officers, emergency responders and commercial fleet operators cannot afford to operate vehicles without the assurance of security. A police officer, emergency medical technician or truck driver cannot live with any uncertainty regarding the integrity of their vehicle’s safety systems and powertrain.

That overwhelming and immediate need for security has given rise to an aftermarket for devices intended to secure the OBDII diagnostic port in most cars (made after 1996) and many commercial vehicles. The OBDII port is the same port used by Progressive’s Snapshot usage-based insurance device and Automatic’s diagnostic dongle.

The most prominent examples of these aftermarket security devices – themselves plug-in OBDII devices – come from RunSafe Security and Argus Security. A third company, Autocyb, offers a physical lock and key for the OBDII port.

Autocyb (left) and RunSafe (right)

The urgency of this need was made apparent from multiple conversations at the recent International Communications Data & Digital Forensics seminars put on recently by the Metropolitan Police at a venue outside London. For attendees at this event the connected car presents new opportunities while creating new vulnerabilities.

Criminals continue to gain access to and steal cars, a process made easier by the presence of the OBDII port. The new kid on the block is the cybercriminal using virtual or remote access to the car for nefarious purposes.

Once inside a car, access to the OBDII port greatly eases the criminal’s task of disabling or taking the car. But the emergence of automotive cyber attacks has created the need for a means to secure cars from wireless attacks on multiple vehicle networks for the purposes of remote control mischief, ransom or terrorist activities.

Police in the U.S. state of Virginia have been testing the RunSafe device, created by an offshoot of Kaprica Security. According to the company, which opened its doors just last year, RunSafe’s “App and OS Guardian are a preventative security overlay for native code that mitigates widespread return oriented programming (ROP) attacks.

“(The RunSafe applications) increase security by leveraging randomization (binary stirring) or novel control flow integrity (CFI) concepts. The overlay is an example of a defensive technology called run-time application self-protection (RASP). They can “shrink” app or OS attack surfaces by up to 90%.”

Argus says its technology identifies malicious attacks using its patent-pending deep packet inspection algorithms – scanning all traffic in a vehicle’s network, identifying abnormal transmissions and enabling real-time response to threats. Argus’ aftermarket solution is designed to provide a comprehensive overview of cyber attacks and irregularities, allowing car makers to identify unauthorized attempts to tune or change an ECU’s behavior.

Unlike the RunSafe plug-in device which must be removed to allow for service diagnostic tools to be connected, Argus has shown a secure OBDII plug-in that provides a port to allow OBDII connection THROUGH its device.

Both Argus and RunSafe offer embedded and cloud-based security solutions for cars. Argus is also offering its technology as an add-on for aftermarket devices from insurance companies and others.

It’s notable, in the wake of the FBI and U.S. Department of Transportation warnings regarding connecting devices to cars and the correlated risk to security, that the OBDII port is seen by both companies as a means toward enhancing vehicle security. The one weakness of OBDII-based security is the use of such technology on newer cars. As cars adopt over-the-air software update technology, aftermarket devices may come to interpret software updates as malicious code. This will pose a challenge to aftermarket solutions.

The most important aspect of the emergence of these devices is the “productization” of security. While security as a service is the more accepted and familiar model as in desktop and portable computers today – ie. Norton and McAfee Antivirus products – cars present unique security challenges creating the demand for unique solutions.

The arrival of these products demonstrates the immediacy of the need for automotive security. Fleet operators of all kinds won’t wait for car makers.

Roger C. Lanctot is Associate Director in the Global Automotive Practice at Strategy Analytics. More details about Strategy Analytics can be found here: https://www.strategyanalytics.com/access-services/automotive#.VuGdXfkrKUk


The time Andy Grove came to Fortune and refused to meet with the editors

The time Andy Grove came to Fortune and refused to meet with the editors
by Rik Kirkland on 03-30-2016 at 4:00 pm

In my nearly thirty year career at FORTUNE magazine, I got to know a host of larger than life characters. But few loom larger in memory than the diminutive dynamo who sadly passed away last night, Andy Grove.

Amid the stream of obits and reminiscences rightly hailing Andy’s extraordinary career as CEO of Intel, his major contributions to management thinking in books such as Only the Paranoid Survive and High Output Management and his moving autobiography Swimming Across, which vividly relates how young Andras Grof escaped war-torn Hungary to reinvent himself in America as Andy Grove, I have two small stories to offer.

Both capture what to me is Andy’s essence, what defined him as a leader and a man – his extraordinary intellectual energy, harnessed to an incessant willingness to challenge bluntly both himself and everyone around him.

In May 1996, when I was deputy editor, Andy wrote a cover story for FORTUNE, “Taking on Prostate Cancer,” in which he clinically examined the choices he had confronted when diagnosed with the disease. One exhibit included a chart he had proudly crafted himself. But in the course of checking the math, a 25-year-old first year Fortune reporter named Bethany McLean, called him out on an error. He exploded in anger – and then quickly backed down once he re-examined the facts and realized she was right. (Bethany would go on to prove she was more than capable of holding her ground and facing down angry older white men when she wrote in 2001, a month after I became managing editor, the first national story to question Ken Lay and Enron’s then high-flying stock.)

When Andy came to visit our offices in New York shortly after the piece appeared, he had little interest in seeing me and or my boss, John Huey, who had commissioned the story. “Never mind you guys,” he roared, “I want to meet this Bethany McLean!” He was quick to challenge but equally ready to admit—and celebrate –if he made a mistake.

Some months earlier, Andy had appeared on stage in San Francisco at the FORTUNE 500 Forum with the other most-prominent CEO of that era, GE’s Jack Welch. In the course of their dialog, Andy suddenly turned to Jack and asked him if he used a computer. Jack admitted he did not. (Yes, kids, 20 years ago it was still possible to run one of the world’s biggest and best companies without personally using either the PC or the Internet!) Andy shook his head and, leaning in towards Welch with a mix of empathy and horror, said in his heavily accented English: “Jack, you really need to get a PC.” Welch must have . . . eventually, because a few years later his company, which had long focused mainly on Six Sigma as its core cross-cutting initiative, announced it was launching a new one — on digital and e-commerce.

Andy Grove: shouter, teacher, mentor, challenger, change-agent—and most important, life-long learner. He broke the mold and set an example for us all.


The Latest in Static Timing Analysis with Variation Modeling

The Latest in Static Timing Analysis with Variation Modeling
by Tom Dillinger on 03-30-2016 at 12:00 pm

In many ways, static timing analysis (STA) is more of an art than a science. Methodologists are faced with addressing complex phenomena that impact circuit delay — e.g., signal crosstalk, dynamic I*R supply voltage drop, temperature inversion, device aging effects, and especially (correlated and uncorrelated) process variation between logic cells in a performance-critical path. The uncertainty in clock and data signal arrivals at a storage element at both fast and slow PVT corners necessitated judicious allocation of timing margins, for verification of both setup and hold constraints.

With the progression of process technology, the impact of (global and local) process variation has increased, and thus required a more sophisticated solution, in lieu of a simple margining approach. The STA methodologists needed to address how to reflect statistical variation in the arrival time propagation calculations, and the determination of a “confidence level” for arrival-to-setup/hold checks. (Lesser timing margin values would still be applicable to other phenomena besides process variation.)

As illustrated in the figure below, the definition of a PVT corner for timing analysis was expanded to include a local, intra-die delay variation component. An on-die PVT “global mean” is defined, with a local distribution around that reference. Note that this global mean is somewhat artificial, as it represents a value around which measured local variation is added to align with the total measured process variation data.

Designing to a global “n-sigma” target at the far extremes of the process distribution would be too pessimistic, and increasingly difficult for designers to close timing. An overall global mean + local n-sigma method is used instead. (Note in the figure that the author is recommending that a very high-sigma still be applied for hold time checks at the fast PVT corner, due to the unforgiving behavior of a hold time failure.)

Recently, I had the distinct pleasure of chatting with Igor Keller, Distinguished Engineer in the Silicon Signoff and Verification Group at Cadence. He and his colleagues presented a paper at this year’s Tau Workshop, which caught my eye, entitled “Importance of Modeling Non-Gaussianities in Static Timing Analysis in sub-16nm Technologies”. The Tau Workshop is the premier venue for STA methodologists and EDA tool developers, to discuss how current challenges in the field are being addressed — it is definitely worth attending/tracking (link).

Igor reviewed some of the recent history of STA development, then highlighted a critical area that his team has been addressing.

First, a brief recap…

Full “statistical” STA (SSTA) was proposed over a decade ago, yet the implementation proved to be extremely complex. The delay and output slew characterization of cells as a function of loading and input signal slew — the backbone of STA — was costly. The propagation of full statistical arrival probability distributions was intricate. It required mathematical interpretation of the probability distribution of arrivals and slews at cell pins and the addition of probability distributions for cell delays, as timing analysis progressed through the network timing graph. In addition to timing signoff, physical implementation tools also need to integrate the timing engine as part of their iterative design optimizations. The adverse performance impact of full SSTA made utilization during physical design cumbersome.

An alternative method emerged as more practical, and still sufficient — Advanced On-Chip Variation (AOCV) analysis. AOCV utilizes the concept of stage depth in STA calculations, using the levelization of gates in a logic path to determine the depth number. A derate delay multiplier based upon logic path depth is applied to the local delay distribution to reflect the correlated variation of on-die circuits — the greater the number of gates in the path, the higher the assumed correlation. The derate multiplier decreases with the stage delay number. (Some AOCV approaches also include location-based derate tables, to further reflect local correlation factors when the physical extent of the path is bounded.) This methodology has gained acceptance, with STA tool functionality and with the foundries providing support for representing process variation in the form of a global mean and local derate tables.

An enhancement to existing OCV methods has been promoted by the Liberty Technical Advisory Board (TAB), a consortium of company representatives working on standards for circuit modeling (link).

The Liberty Variation Format (LVF) introduces a local standard deviation sigma into the cell characterization library data, and a table format for sigma as a function of input pin slew and output load is provided. This characterization approach allows the STA methodologist a general method to close setup/hold timing yield independently to “n-sigma”, generating corresponding derates.

(Note that there is certainly process variation impacting the setup and hold constraints at the clock/data inputs of a storage element. This variation is typically incorporated with the other timing margin factors.)

Igor highlighted that the AOCV and LVF n-sigma approach used to date has assumed Gaussian, or normal, variation distribution, as depicted above. In advanced process nodes, the variations are distinctly non-Gaussian. Additionally, the trend to operate logic circuits at reduced VDD supply voltage for low-power applications also results in non-Gaussian delay distributions. This necessitates a new approach, to the representation of the statistical “tail” of the arrival time distribution at a test point in the timing graph.

The Cadence team’s presentation at Tau highlighted how non-Gaussian cell distributions can be accurately and efficiently represented, and how the subsequent calculations of (non-Gaussian) delay, slew, and arrival time variations are propagated through the network graph.

The foundation for their approach begins with the same generation technique used for library cell characterization of delays and slews. Monte Carlo Spice simulations of cells (using advanced parameter sampling techniques) provide the discrete data. From this dataset, the following statistical parameters are calculated:

  • overall mean (based upon the global process mean above)
  • “shifted” mean (of the non-Gaussian data)
  • variance (aka, the statistical 2nd moment; the square of the standard deviation)
  • skewness (the statistical 3rd moment)

The calculation is extendible — the 4th moment, or kurtosis, could also be derived for the data distribution. Further, to accelerate the adoption of this approach, these values can be represented in a similar table format to the current LVF data.

Timing graph analysis now proceeds with delay/slew calculation and the propagation of arrival times. (Although our discussion focused on forward propagation of arrival times, Igor indicated the same technique applies to backward propagation slack calculation, as well.)

The main STA network timing methods are graph-based analysis (GBA) and path-based analysis (PBA, which should always be “bounded” by a GBA calculation). These methods require algorithms for min/max/sum calculations for cell pin arrival and pin-to-pin delay arcs. The Tau paper goes into detail on these calculations, using the best representation for the non-Gaussian distribution of the shifted mean, variance, and skewness values — e.g., a log-normal or a Cauchy distribution. The key is that these calculations do not adversely impact runtime performance.

The tail of the arrival data distribution at a test point provides a statistical probability of the timing yield, represented as a “quantile” for non-normal distributions. (Three sigma for a normal distribution corresponds to the 0.99865 quantile.)

Igor provided examples of the distinctly non-Gaussian cell delay values, including circuits operating at low VDD at advanced nodes. The figures below highlight the fact that the “0.99865 quantile delay” is far from the (Gaussian mean + 3 sigma) calculation, especially at low VDD.

Example of the delay distribution for a high Vt inverter cell @ VDD=0.6V. Note the difference between the (Gaussian) 3-sigma delay and the non-Gaussian 0.99865 quantile delay, which reflects the same timing yield.

Delay distributions for standard Vt inverter cells. The second example uses 7nm device models, operating at an extremely low VDD. Again, note the difference between Gaussian and 0.99865 quantile delays.

The Tau paper provided comparisons between reference Monte Carlo Spice simulations of full paths, to the prediction from the Gaussian and non-Gaussian distribution cell library LVF models — a few examples are excised from that paper in the figure below. The benefits of the improved non-Gaussian delay model are clear.

Cadence has integrated the non-Gaussian LVF extension support into their Tempus STA signal tool, and as the integrated timing engine in their Innovus implementation platform. They are working with the Liberty consortium to extend the current LVF definition as a standard.

STA is evolving to provide methodologies that support accurate timing yield signoff, in the face of increasing variation, while maintaining efficiency of library generation and delay calculation/propagation. That said, there are plenty of challenges ahead. Igor provided additional insights,

“We are working on several facets of STA — improved modeling of crosstalk, better support for multiple-input switching effects, better inclusion of aging models.”

Look for compelling advances in timing yield analysis in the future. For more information on Cadence Tempus, please follow this link.

-chipguy


Reflections on a Trade Show, and a Turning Point for Silicon

Reflections on a Trade Show, and a Turning Point for Silicon
by Alex Lidow on 03-30-2016 at 7:00 am

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This past week over 5,000 people converged on the AppliedPower Electronics Conference (APEC) in Long Beach California to understand the state-of-the-art and the future of the electronics that powers things such as servers, electric cars, white goods, factories, medical implants, as well as drones. The conference, which is the premier event in applied power electronics, had technical papers as well as a conference hall full of exhibits related to power electronics.

I have been to every APEC show since inception in 1986. This one was different.

On Display at the Conference
For 60 years, well before the APEC conference was conceived, all electronic trade shows have demonstrated the latest and greatest advances in silicon devices as well as the systems and products that are built upon this excellent semiconductor. At APEC 2016 there was a ground swell of products, papers, demonstrations, and an obvious general enthusiasm for devices based on a relatively new semiconductor – gallium nitride (GaN). GaN devices were exhibited by Panasonic, Infineon, Texas Instruments, GaN Systems, Transphorm, and Efficient Power Conversion (EPC).

There were drones from Solace Power that can be recharged in mid-air, drones with LiDAR systems mapping the conference hall in real time, a dozen wireless charging systems from companies such as Semtech, Neosen, Gill Electronics, WiTricity, and Solace Power. A satellite from Planetary Resources landed at the EPC booth – satellite designers love GaN transistors and integrated circuits because they are tiny, efficient, and very resistant to the radiation that can damage silicon devices in space.


Figure 1: Phoenix Aerial Systems had a drone on display that had a working LiDAR system mapping the conference room in real time. LiDAR systems use GaN transistors because they are more than 10 times faster than silicon, thus giving greater image resolution.


Figure 2: GaN devices are extremely small and are used in many medical devices such as implantable pain scintillators, implantable heart pumps, and prosthetics.


Figure 3: Gill Electronics had this automotive center console on display. Embedded in the console is an AirFuel wireless charging system that can charge multiple devices placed in the recessed section on top.


Figure 4: Planetary Resources had a model of their Arkyd 200 satellite that is designed to recover valuable minerals from near-earth asteroids. In addition to being very resistant to radiation, GaN devices are used to reduce size and weight as well as to improve the efficiency of the solar panels.

More Stuff at the Conference
There was the Little Box Challenge winner at the GaN Systems booth (The winners, a company in Belgium named CE+T took home a $1,000,000 prize from Google). Panasonic showed a GaN-based, very tiny 45 W AC adapter. Texas Instruments had a DC-DC converter that converter 48 V to 1 V with astonishing efficiency thanks to GaN (This is the single-stage, energy saving power conversion solution the server industry has been demanding for years!).


Figure 5: Semtech’s chip set, as well as EPC’s GaN FETs, was used in Neosen’s tri-mode wireless charger. This device can charge devices using any of the three popular standards, Qi, PMA, or AirFuel .


Figure 6: WiTricity displayed their notebook computer charging pad that uses EPC’s GaN FETs. Soon entire desktops will be wireless charging platforms.

Envelope tracking systems for efficient 4G/LTE and 5G wireless base stationswere present, as were X-ray machines that fit into an ingestible pill (Think colonoscopy) were on display thanks to the miniaturization possible with GaN technology.


Figure 7: Check Cap has developed an X-ray machine that fits into an ingestible pill. This incredible device can do a colonoscopy without pre-purging or an invasive medical procedure. As the pill passes through the patient’s system, a 3-D image of the patient’s colon is sent to a wireless receiver worn as a patch during the test. Approval in Europe is expected this year.

Technical Papers and Discussions
GaN was not only in evidence on the conference room floor, it was also in many of the technical papers. There were 106 technical papers and presentations that referenced GaN in one way or another. GaN was the talk of the show by far.

EPC has been touting GaN for 6 years since it’s start of production in early 2010. At that time GaN FETs were 5-10 times higher performance that the best silicon transistors. At that time EPC made the claim that by 2015 GaN would not only continue to be higher and higher performance, it would also be less expensive to produce than silicon devices that can handle the same amount of power. That timetable was met, so this year at APEC power systems designers were confronted with the first time that a new material could outperform silicon at a lower unit cost, and is available off the shelf. Also, after 6 years in production, EPC has shown excellent field reliability that is as good as silicon reliability performance. These two facts contributed significantly to a change in mood of the power design engineers compared with past years!

Moore’s Law – Passing the Baton to Achieve the Promise
GaN is the logical successor to silicon for power conversion and analog devices; and possibly for digital components as well. GaN is opening new markets – as shown by the multitude of products on display at APEC . GaN technology enables applications such as wireless charging, higher resolution MRI imaging, micro satellites, high resolution and low cost LiDAR, and higher bandwidth wireless communications.

The recent sluggishness of the end markets for semiconductors is somewhat a by-product of the end of Moore’s Law, silicon cannot keep pace with the need to double performance while lowering cost. But don’t fret, GaN is on track to re-establish that amazing “go-go period” when consumers could count on marvelous new products and applications that year after year delivered higher performance and a constantly reducing price.Moore’s Law is not dead, it has a new beginning with a new technology, GaN, to take up the baton.


Who will provide data center Soc of the future, Intel or Qualcomm ?

Who will provide data center Soc of the future, Intel or Qualcomm ?
by Eric Esteve on 03-29-2016 at 4:00 pm

Intel has been incredibly successful by designing high performance server SoC to address the data center market segment, and the chance to see the company loosing large market share is pretty low, at least in the short term. Now, if we look at the really long term, 2030 or even 2040, like did the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) in a recent report (“Rebooting the IT Revolution: A Call to Action”) launched in September 2015, we realize that the current way of designing chips will have to drastically change. Designing SoC for performance only, even on the most advanced technology nodes, even by shifting node down whenever it’s possible, will simply not be sustainable.

If you don’t trust me, just take a look at the diagram below: the total energy of computing (Benchmark curve) would pass the world’s energy production by 2037 if the ways we design computing systems don’t change.

At first, we have to say that the authors have not limited their investigations to the different SoC design approaches, but have evaluated yet to come non-silicon devices, the impact of 3-D design, near threshold operations, just to name a few. As far as I am concerned, I propose to investigate within a field that I know: Silicon devices, SoC design techniques and Si fabrication technology.

During the last 15 years, we have seen two types of chip makers, both being very successful by developing SoC for two completely different markets. One group lead by Intel or Cisco is developing SoC targeting data centers or networking is targeting always higher performance (computing power or bandwidth capacity), whatever the power consumption, assuming this power doesn’t prevent the chip to run normally.

The other group lead by Qualcomm or Apple developing application processor SoC for battery powered mobile systems. This group has learned how to provide the highest CPU, GPU or DSP performance while keeping the power consumption as low as possible, using design techniques like clock gating or power island at chip level and power management units (PMU) usage at system level. We should not forget their technology partners like foundries, TSMC, Samsung or GlobalFoundries, who have systematically developed low power technology option, as well as the IP vendors providing low power version of the foundation IP.

It’s interesting to notice that Intel’s tentative to penetrate the mobile segment have been frequent but never successful. Is it due to a kind of “company culture” focused on pure performance, preventing to support the right technology option (low power), or to the designers themselves, reluctant to adopt design techniques radically different from what has been used for decades to create successful CPU SoC?

No matter are the reasons, probably a mix of company culture or short term marketing (Intel is successful on the data center segment with 99% market share, according with Bloomberg, so why changing now), the data manipulation, computing and networking, is growing exponantially, in every category. The diagram below, extracted from the SIA report (and very similar to forecast built by Cisco that you can easily find on the web), clearly shows that the data growth is exponential. If you look at the top 3 contributors, Multimedia, Consumer IoT and Industrial IoT, the industry consensus is that it will continue to grow… in fact for IoT and IIoT we just see the begining of a much larger deployement ! If you consider that a large part of the world is not yet involved, but strongly desire to participate to the data feast, this will reinforce the exponential growth trend. If no action is taken in the mid term, the computing industry will face a real issue by 2035/2040…

As of today, a data center is a building full of server racks, which need to be cooled via an expansive air conditioning system. The electricity bill is high and more than 50% of this electricity is used for the cooling system itself. Now, if you look at the server chips, they need and efficient package in respect with power dissipation, plus additional heat-sink. In other word, at every step you pay a price penalty due to the high power dissipated by the chip.

If we want the companies managing data centers (Google, Amazon, etc.) to radically change for a power conscious architecture, don’t expect them to make this change by altruism, the proposed solution should provide a lower Cost of Ownership (CoO). This means that the overall cost should be lower at the end of the year. Could we define a server architecture providing equivalent performance (MIPS, latency, bandwidth) but with much lower power dissipation, leading to drastically optimized electricity bill? I don’t know, but this could be a research track to be explored immediately, I mean searching for a solution which could be implemented in the next 3 to 5 years, instead of expecting the emergence of a magic material to replace the Silicon (which may arise). If you look forward, 2037 is not so far away from now. It’s as close as 1995…

Eric Esteve from IPNEST


Andy Grove’s Less Remembered Intel

Andy Grove’s Less Remembered Intel
by Sumit Sharma on 03-29-2016 at 12:00 pm

The following paragraphs present another one of those articles that I wrote for a Cyber Media publication, probably in the year 2000. It’s been almost fifteen years since then. When I read Sunit Rikhi’s glowing tribute to Andy Grove, a few grey cells stirred in my brain and I recalled that I had written something about the Intel that Andy Grove had shaped. Luckily I managed to recover it from my archives. Intel is known as a Tech giant. This article which I had christened “No Sympathies for the Underdogs” presents a different facet of Intel that not many have talked about. Enjoy for sheer nostalgia…

Ever wondered why people support the underdogs? After all shouldn’t the guys who have made it to the top after a lot of hard and smart work be the favorites always? Why is it that people often tend to develop a soft corner for the closest rivals of such giants? Why do so many people hope in their heart of hearts that an AMD displace or put an Intel in its place? Or that someone give Microsoft the shivers!

The examples of Intel and AMD make interesting case studies. The manner in which Intel has gone about monopolizing the processor market (almost) is commendable. It has not allowed itself to be restricted as a pure technology company. In fact it has paid as much attention to marketing and promotion as it has to technology. It kept its ears to the ground and was quick in responding to market feelers. It might have made mistakes from time to time, and had its share of problems, but the speed with which it has responded as well as proactively defined the market is amazing.

Not too long back, a Cyrix and a K6 seemed to be vying with each other to put Intel’s offerings in its place. People welcomed these moves and hoped that finally they would have a fair choice. The more enthusiastic ones predicted that Intel’s days were over. When one of Intel’s key guys switched over to competition, ‘pundits’ proclaimed that Intel’s fate was sealed.

Despite such sentiments for the underdogs competition has not been able to break Intel’s strangle hold on the market. And here reasons may be related more to marketing than to technology.

For one, Intel was quick to bring out a cheaper product itself in the form of Celeron. When Celeron didn’t quite sweep people off the ground, it was quick to make amends and improve upon the product. Additionally, its marketing arm burnt the midnight oil to make sure that AMD and Cyrix got compared with Celeron and not with Pentium. It thus created a niche for Pentium, which remained unrivaled.

From an Indian context, Intel’s presence in this market also played a key role. The competing organizations seemed to have missed the importance of the Indian market. And that made a significant difference. Nor were these organizations imaginative enough to do a number on Intel without being present in India.

In stark contrast, Intel masterminded a strategy to make deep inroads into the fastest growing ‘assembler’ segment. By starting what it termed the GID movement (Genuine Intel Dealer), it sought to bring respectability to a hitherto ostracized lot. The results were amazing.

Since then, Intel has never looked back. And its competition has never seemed sure of itself. To put the last nail in its rivals’ coffins (pardon the phrase, for in this business, you never know when the dead will rise again), Intel did something that a component maker is hardly known to do. It addressed the end user market with such vehemence that computers almost got synonymous with Pentium.

Many scoffed at Intel’s initial attempt to woo end users. But Intel persisted with its campaigns. In addition to advertising in the print media, it also made its presence felt on TV and featured in popular programs. It found novel ways to attract families to fairs organized by it. (It had recognized the pulse of the Indian parents who would do everything in their capacity for their children’s education.) And to make sure that it made an early impact on the young minds, it had something going on for students.
So complete and devastating was its marketing act that competition seemed no where in sight. Even its worst detractors, I am sure, could not have helped admiring the manner in which Intel systematically demolished competition in the price conscious Indian market.

Being good is not enough. You must also be known to be good! Not only did Intel have a good product. It made sure, the whole world knew. (Or at least in the Indian context, all of India knew.)

At the end of the day, people care only for what they get. And even if they harbor a soft corner for the underdogs, all that they will give them is their sympathies.