ASML most immune to slow down due to lead times Not LRCX

ASML most immune to slow down due to lead times Not LRCX
by Robert Maire on 10-21-2018 at 7:00 am

ASML reported EUR2.78B in revenues with EUR2.08B in systems. 58% was for memory. EUV was EUR513M with 5 systems. Importantly orders were for EUR2.20B in systems at 64% memory and 5 EUV tools. This was likely better than expectations given the overall industry weakness. EPS of EUR1.60 was more or less in line with expectations. Guidance… Read More


More Negative Semiconductor News

More Negative Semiconductor News
by Robert Maire on 09-24-2018 at 7:00 am

The amount of negative news and information about the semiconductor industry seems to be increasing at a faster rate. Micron put up a better quarter than expected but more importantly guided less than expected. We are surprised that the street is surprised as the decline in memory pricing is well known and Micron has been clear about… Read More


Is the Q4 Bounce Back now a 2009 Recovery?

Is the Q4 Bounce Back now a 2009 Recovery?
by Robert Maire on 09-10-2018 at 7:00 am

Last week saw a unique confluence of events that continue the negative news flow in semicap following the story about GloFo. At a financial conference, Micron’s CFO said NAND prices were declining, this was on top of an analyst note in the morning about the same issue. Even though this should be no surprise as memory has had … Read More


Chip Stocks have been Choppy but China may return

Chip Stocks have been Choppy but China may return
by Robert Maire on 08-19-2018 at 7:00 am

Applied Materials (AMAT) is batting clean up in a quarter that has not been pretty. Lately semi stocks seem to have been hit by not only stock specific issues but continued and increasing memory concerns coupled with more macro issues. On top of all this, China trade issues which have in the meantime taken a back burner to other issues… Read More


KLAC gets an EUV Kicker

KLAC gets an EUV Kicker
by Robert Maire on 08-02-2018 at 7:00 am

KLAC put up a great quarter coming in at revenues of $1.07B and EPS of $2.22. Guidance is for $1.03B to $1.1B with EPS of $2 to $2.32. Both reported and guided were at the high end of the range and above consensus. We had suggested in our preview notes that KLAC would be the least impacted of the big three (AMAT, LRCX & KLAC) semi equipment… Read More


Chip Equipment where to from here?

Chip Equipment where to from here?
by Robert Maire on 05-20-2018 at 12:00 pm

We may know the top, do we know the bottom? What is the downside in NAND, DRAM, Foundry. Can China help or is risk worse than upside?

It would appear that our concerns in our preview piece prior to the AMAT call came true as the stock now has a “4” handle, NAND is in question and display is down.

However its not like business … Read More


Samsung has another record quarter in chips

Samsung has another record quarter in chips
by Robert Maire on 04-29-2018 at 7:00 am

Samsung throws further gas on the fire of weak handset and CAPEX not set but will be down versus 2017. Samsung reported revenues of KRW 60.56 Trillion and KRW 15.64 Trillion operating profit ($56B and $15B). Chips accounted for whopping KRW 11.55 Trillion in operating profit on revenues of KRW 20.78 Trillion ( $11B and $19B)….a… Read More


Choosing the lesser of 2 evils EUV vs Multi Patterning!

Choosing the lesser of 2 evils EUV vs Multi Patterning!
by Robert Maire on 11-03-2017 at 12:00 pm

For Halloween this week we thought it would be appropriate to talk about things that strike fear into the hearts of semiconductor makers and process engineers toiling away in fabs. Do I want to do multi-patterning with the huge increase in complexity, number of steps, masks and tools or do I want to do EUV with unproven tools, unproven… Read More


Samsung Sloppy Sailor Spending Spree!

Samsung Sloppy Sailor Spending Spree!
by Robert Maire on 07-31-2017 at 12:00 pm

Last week, TEL (which is the Japanese equivalent to AMAT & LRCX) reported a June quarter which saw revenues drop to 236B Yen from March’s 261B Yen and saw earnings drop from March’s 47B Yen to June’s 41B Yen, a respective 9.3% decrease and a 12.8% decrease in earnings.

We don’t think this is attributable… Read More


EUV transition comes into focus

EUV transition comes into focus
by Robert Maire on 11-04-2016 at 12:00 pm

We attended ASML’s analyst day in New York on Halloween. We were very impressed with the quality, content and clarity of the presentations and thought it was one of the best strategic positioning presentations we have seen in the semi industry. We also had an opportunity to meet with several members of senior management afterRead More