– KLA reported a good QTR but more importantly passing the bottom
– Lead times mean KLA gets orders early in up cycle-just behind ASML
– Potential upside in upcycle as packaging needs more process control
– 2024 2nd half weighted with stronger recovery likely in 2025
Tag: klac
LRCX- Mediocre, flattish, long, U shaped bottom- No recovery in sight yet-2025?
– Lam reports another flat quarter & guide- No recovery in sight yet
– Seems like no expectation of recovery until 2025- Mixed results
– DRAM good- NAND weak- Foundry/Logic mixed-Mature weakening
– Clearly disappointing to investors & stock hoping for a chip recovery
Another Flat Quarter &
… Read MoreKLAC- OK Quarter & flat guide- Hopefully 2025 recovery- Big China % & Backlog
– KLAC reported an OK QTR & flat guide-waiting for 2025 recovery?
– China exposure remains both risk & savior & big in backlog
– Wafer inspect strong- Patterning on long slide- PCB biz for sale
– Some bright spots but memory still weak- Foundry/Logic OK
Bumping along the bottom of the cycle
… Read MoreThe Coming China Chipocalypse – Trade Sanctions Backfire – Chips versus Equipment
- China Chip Sanctions have had opposite of intended effect
- Helps AMAT, LRCX, KLAC & TEL- Hurts Micron and GloFo
- Tsunami of Chinese capacity will hurt memory & 2nd tier chip makers
- The probability of a much longer chip downcycle is increasing
China is cornering the market on Semiconductor equipment
Quarterly reports from… Read More
KLAC- OK quarter in ugly environment- Big China $ – Little Process $ – Legacy good
- KLA has an OK quarter in an ugly market- bouncing along bottom
- Like Lam & ASML, China was huge at 43% represents more risk
- 2/3 Foundry/logic, 1/3 memory – Process tools were weak
- No change, stable , no visibility on recovery
Quarter and guide were good in continued ugly industry
As expected KLAC reported earnings at the … Read More
LRCX- QTR OK but outlook mixed- At half of revs, China is huge risk- Memory poor
- LRCX has OK QTR but “challenging outlook” – Memory still sucks
- China at 48% is a huge risk given potential of more sanctions
- Leading & trailing logic both poor- no recovery in sight yet
- Memory spending at historical lows for NAND
Quarter came in OK but outlook seems weak and unclear
Revenues came in at $3.48B… Read More
ASML Wavering- Supports our Concern of Second Leg Down for Semis- False Bottom
-ASML weakness is evidence of deeper chip down cycle
-When ASML sneezes other chip equip makers catch a cold
-Will backlog last long enough? Will EUV demand hold up?
-“Unthinkable” event, litho cancelations, could shock industry
ASML has in line quarter but alarm bells ring on wavering outlook
ASML reported Euro6.7B… Read More
Samsung Ugly as Expected Profits off 69% Winning a Game of CAPEX Chicken
-Samsung off the same chip cliff as Micron- “No skid marks”
-Samsung may be winning at a game of “Capex Chicken”
-No expectation of recovery any time soon – Consumers weak
-2023 a write off- Recovery will be delayed if spending isn’t
Samsungs worst quarter in 8 years no surprise
Samsung pre… Read More
KLAC- Strong QTR and Guide but Backlog mutes China and Economic Impact
-KLA great quarter & guide as backlog mutes China/Economy
-Patterning starts to catch up to wafer inspection outperform
-China impact is limited to leading edge & specific customers
-Cuts in memory capex less impactful on KLA
KLAC reports strong quarter and good guide
Revenues were $2.7B with EPS of $7.06 versus street… Read More
Is ASML Immune from China Impact?
-ASML has great QTR & Outlook & Huge Euro8.9B orders
-Relatively immune from China due to mainly non leading edge
-Monster Euro38B backlog – 60EUV & 375DUV systems in 2023
-5% China risk to 2023- still mainly supply constrained
ASML proves litho’s place at Apex of semiconductor food chain
ASML announced… Read More