Micron beats subdued guidance on output cuts

Micron beats subdued guidance on output cuts
by Robert Maire on 06-26-2019 at 5:00 am

2020 capex likely down at least 20% vs 2019 DRAM & NAND price drops versus slowing capacity. Investors happy cause it could have been worse.

Micron reported $1.05 in Non-GAAP EPS beating street consensus of $0.79 by $0.26. While this looks like a big beat, we would remind investors that estimates for the quarter were about… Read More


Opening a new front in multi faceted trade war

Opening a new front in multi faceted trade war
by Robert Maire on 05-30-2019 at 5:00 am

We had warned in our May 10th note about the rare earth element risk.  It is one of the few remaining leverage points that China has left that has a potentially strong impact on the US much similar to the US’s impact on Huawei and perhaps even worse. Cutting the US off from rare earth elements is clearly worse than cutting Huawei
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Bottom of a Semiconductor Canoe Cycle Shape

Bottom of a Semiconductor Canoe Cycle Shape
by Robert Maire on 05-09-2019 at 12:00 pm

Nice numbers despite the cycle bottom
KLA put up EPS of $1.80 versus street of $1.67 on revenues of $1.097B versus street of $1.08B. However guidance was weaker than the street was hoping for with a range of $1.21B to $1.29B in revenues generating between $1.55 and $1.85 in non GAAP EPS. This is compared to current street estimates … Read More


Semiconductor Equipment Revenues To Drop 17% In 2019 On 29% Capex Spend Cuts

Semiconductor Equipment Revenues To Drop 17% In 2019 On 29% Capex Spend Cuts
by Robert Castellano on 04-25-2019 at 7:00 am

The semiconductor equipment market grew 37.3% in 2017 on the heels of capex spend by memory companies in order to increase bit capacity and move to more sophisticated products with smaller nanometer dimensions. Unfortunately these companies overspent resulting in excessive oversupply of memory chips. As memory prices started… Read More


Moore’s Law extended with new "gateless" transistor

Moore’s Law extended with new "gateless" transistor
by Robert Maire on 04-01-2019 at 10:00 am

Micron Buries the Hatchet with China
Micron has a very long history of counter cyclical investing, buying the assets of vanquished competitors when the memory industry is at the bottom of the cycle, such as it is right now.

Over the weekend, Micron announced that it had an agreement to acquire the assets of the now stalled Jinhua memory… Read More


ASML and Memory Loss 2019

ASML and Memory Loss 2019
by Robert Maire on 01-25-2019 at 7:00 am

ASML reported a more or less in line quarter as expected, coming in at EUR3.14B in revenues and EPS of EUR1.87. However, guidance was worse than most analysts were expecting with Q1 revenues expected to be EUR2.1B or down about one third.

This cut is something we have been talking about for a while as we have expected sharp memory CAPEX… Read More


TSMC and Apple Aftermath

TSMC and Apple Aftermath
by Robert Maire on 01-21-2019 at 7:00 am

TSMC reported an in line quarter, as expected and also reported down Q1 guidance, also as expected. The only thing some investors may have been caught off guard about is the magnitude of the expected drop, 14%, from $9.4B to $7.35B. This is the largest quarter over quarter drop for TSMC in a very long time. Importantly for TSMC, 7NM … Read More


Needham Growth Conference Notes 2019

Needham Growth Conference Notes 2019
by Robert Maire on 01-17-2019 at 12:00 pm

We attended the Needham Growth Conference which is one of the first conferences of the year and in the quiet period before most companies reported so even though there was no “official” comment from most companies on the quarter, the surrounding commentary spoke volumes:

  • The down cycle (and everyone admits its a cycle
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Apple as Apex of chip industry portends weaker 2019

Apple as Apex of chip industry portends weaker 2019
by Robert Maire on 01-04-2019 at 7:00 am

On the first day of trading in the new year Apple just announced, after the close, that revenues will be lower than previously expected coming in at $84B versus the expected range of $89B to $93B and analyst estimates of the current quarter at $91.5B. Ugly….. The blame was laid squarely on China as slowing sales and trade tensions… Read More


AMAT and the Jinhua Jinx!

AMAT and the Jinhua Jinx!
by Robert Maire on 11-18-2018 at 7:00 am

Applied Materials reported a just “in line” quarter but guidance was well below street expectation. AMAT reported EPS of $0.97 and revenues of $4.01B versus street of $0.97 and $4B. Guidance missed the mark by a wide margin with revs of $3.56 to $3.86 and EPS of $0.75 to $0.83 versus already reduced street expectations… Read More