Earlier this year semiconductor oracle Malcom Penn did his 2022 forecast which I covered here: Are We Headed for a Semiconductor Crash? The big difference with this update is the black economic clouds that are looming which may again highlight Malcolm’s forecasting prowess. I spent an hour with Malcolm and company on his Zoom cast… Read More
Several recent forecasts for the 2016 semiconductor market point to a decline. The title of this post is the same as we used for in October 2015. In October, Semiconductor Intelligence projected the market would grow 1.0% in 2015 despite several predictions of the market going negative. 2015 finished with a slight 0.2% decline.… Read More
The semiconductor market is currently in a slow growth period. After 10% growth in 2014, the market is expected to only show low single-digit growth in 2015. Our own forecast at Semiconductor Intelligence is 1.5%. In several previous market slowdowns, inventories in the channel have climbed as some companies were slow to adjust… Read More
Semiconductor capacity utilization (the ratio of production to capacity) appears to be on the rise, based on available data. Reliable global industry capacity data has not been available since Semiconductor Industry Capacity Statistics (SICAS) disbanded in 2011.
TSMC and UMC (the two largest pure-play foundries according… Read More
The global semiconductor market was US$82.2 billion in the second quarter of 2014 according to World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS). 2Q 2014 was up 4.8% from 1Q 2014 up 10.1% from 2Q 2013. Healthy growth should continue into 3Q 2014. The table below shows initial revenue growth guidance for 2Q 2014, final reported revenue… Read More
The first quarter 2014 semiconductor market was $78.5 billion, down 1.8% from fourth quarter 2013 and up 11.4% from a year ago, according to World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS). The year-to-year growth was the highest since 4Q 2010. The year-to-year growth has been accelerating for the last four quarters. Our February… Read More
The world semiconductor market in 2012 was $292 billion – down 2.7% from $300 billion in 2011, according to WSTS. The 2012 decline followed a slight gain of 0.4% in 2011. Fourth quarter 2012 was down 0.3% from third quarter. The first quarter of the 2013 will likely show a decline from 4Q 2012 based on typical seasonal patterns and the… Read More
Of course these are rolling forecasts which means they change every month, until they get them right. The missing forecaster here is Mike Cowen, developer of the Cowan LRA Model which forecasts global semiconductor sales. Mike has 2011 at a hilarious 2.3%! Below are the mid year market forecasts which were revised significantly… Read More
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke recently testified before Congress that the U.S. economy is recovering, and he predicts the nation will not experience a double-dip recession, or as I predicted a big “V” then a small “v” in my blog: China Semiconductor Bubble.
Bill Jewel from Semiconductor Intelligence agrees with Bernanke:… Read More