Asia Driving Electronics Growth

Asia Driving Electronics Growth
by Bill Jewell on 09-26-2024 at 4:00 pm

Electronics Production 2024 September

Electronics production in the major developed countries has been showing slow growth or declines in 2024. United States electronics production three-month-average change versus a year ago (3/12 change) was 0.4% in July 2024, the slowest since the pandemic year of 2020. Growth has been slowing since averaging 6.5% in 2022 and… Read More


The Semiconductor Business will find a way!

The Semiconductor Business will find a way!
by Claus Aasholm on 09-09-2024 at 6:00 am

Endless Loop of Sanctions rotates while China buys more

Embargoes and other fun stuff in the Semiconductor Tools Market

While this post dives into the semiconductor tool market’s Q2 data, it is also about the senseless embargo game currently in place. The post illustration shows what my notebooks look like as embargoes enforce what they are supposed to suppress and are replaced… Read More


Nvidia Pulled out of the Black Well

Nvidia Pulled out of the Black Well
by Claus Aasholm on 09-03-2024 at 6:00 am

Nvidia Pulled the Quarter out of the Well

Despite a severe setback, Nvidia pulled it off once again

There have been serious concerns about the ROI on AI and yield problems with Blackwell, but Nvidia pulled it off again and delivered a result significantly above guidance.

Beating the revenue guidance of $28B with 2B$ to just above 30B$, representing 15% QoQ and a 122% YoY … Read More


The China Syndrome- The Meltdown Starts- Trump Trounces Taiwan- Chips Clipped

The China Syndrome- The Meltdown Starts- Trump Trounces Taiwan- Chips Clipped
by Robert Maire on 07-18-2024 at 8:00 am

China Syndrome
  • The chip industry got a double tap of both China & Taiwan concerns
  • Bloomberg reported the potential for draconian China chip restrictions
  • Trump threw Taiwan under the bus demanding “protection money”
  • Over-inflated chip stocks had a “rapid unscheduled disassembly”
US looking to further restrict
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What if China doesn’t want TSMC’s factories but wants to take them out?

What if China doesn’t want TSMC’s factories but wants to take them out?
by admin on 07-02-2024 at 10:00 am

Foundry Numbers 2024

Insights into the Semiconductor Industry and the Semiconductor Supply Chain

I am not an expert in geopolitical issues, but lately, my research has begun to worry me. As I was preparing to be interviewed for Chinese media, I was in my “Chinese Zone”, adapting to what is palatable to a Chinese audience. Maybe my mode provoked the thought:… Read More


Intel should be the Free World’s Plan A Not Plan B, and we need the US Government to step in

Intel should be the Free World’s Plan A Not Plan B, and we need the US Government to step in
by admin on 02-19-2024 at 6:00 am

TSMC Intel

There are trillions of dollars at stake with AI and huge geopolitical consequences. However, the weak foundation to American technological power is their dependence on Taiwan and TSMC, which is where most advanced silicon is manufactured. America has also been taking China to the ropes lately in their economic/technology proxy… Read More


2024 Semiconductor Cycle Outlook – The Shape of Things to Come – Where we Stand

2024 Semiconductor Cycle Outlook – The Shape of Things to Come – Where we Stand
by Robert Maire on 01-24-2024 at 6:00 am

Semiconductor Industry Outlook 2024
  • What kind of recovery do we expect, if any, after 2 down years?
  • What impact will China have on the recovery of mature market chips?
  • What will memory recovery look like? Will we return to stupid spend?
  • Stock selection ever more critical in tepid recovery
Chip stocks have rocketed but the industry itself, not so much, “Anticipation….is
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AMAT- Facing Criminal Charges for China Exports – Overshadows OK Quarter

AMAT- Facing Criminal Charges for China Exports – Overshadows OK Quarter
by Robert Maire on 11-19-2023 at 8:00 pm

Criminal Investigation

– News that AMAT facing criminal charges for violating China sanctions
– Sounds like Ion implant tools sent to SMIC in China via South Korea
– Criminal probe goes back to shipments starting in 2021 & 2022
– Overshadows an otherwise OK quarter and outlook

Reuters broke the news on the day of earnings
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LRCX- QTR OK but outlook mixed- At half of revs, China is huge risk- Memory poor

LRCX- QTR OK but outlook mixed- At half of revs, China is huge risk- Memory poor
by Robert Maire on 10-26-2023 at 8:00 am

China Memory Shortage
  • LRCX has OK QTR but “challenging outlook” – Memory still sucks
  • China at 48% is a huge risk given potential of more sanctions
  • Leading & trailing logic both poor- no recovery in sight yet
  • Memory spending at historical lows for NAND
Quarter came in OK but outlook seems weak and unclear

Revenues came in at $3.48B… Read More


Micron Chip & Memory Down Cycle – It Ain’t Over Til it’s Over Maybe Longer and Deeper

Micron Chip & Memory Down Cycle – It Ain’t Over Til it’s Over Maybe Longer and Deeper
by Robert Maire on 10-01-2023 at 6:00 pm

china 800 pound gorilla
  • The memory down cycle is longer/deeper than many thought
  • The recovery will be slower than past cycles- a “U” rather than “V”
  • AI & new apps don’t make up for macro weakness
  •  Negative for overall semis & equip- Could China extend downcycle?
Micron report suggests a longer deeper down cycle
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