Electronics production in the major developed countries has been showing slow growth or declines in 2024. United States electronics production three-month-average change versus a year ago (3/12 change) was 0.4% in July 2024, the slowest since the pandemic year of 2020. Growth has been slowing since averaging 6.5% in 2022 and… Read More
Tag: china
The Semiconductor Business will find a way!
Embargoes and other fun stuff in the Semiconductor Tools Market
While this post dives into the semiconductor tool market’s Q2 data, it is also about the senseless embargo game currently in place. The post illustration shows what my notebooks look like as embargoes enforce what they are supposed to suppress and are replaced… Read More
Nvidia Pulled out of the Black Well
Despite a severe setback, Nvidia pulled it off once again
There have been serious concerns about the ROI on AI and yield problems with Blackwell, but Nvidia pulled it off again and delivered a result significantly above guidance.
Beating the revenue guidance of $28B with 2B$ to just above 30B$, representing 15% QoQ and a 122% YoY … Read More
The China Syndrome- The Meltdown Starts- Trump Trounces Taiwan- Chips Clipped
- The chip industry got a double tap of both China & Taiwan concerns
- Bloomberg reported the potential for draconian China chip restrictions
- Trump threw Taiwan under the bus demanding “protection money”
- Over-inflated chip stocks had a “rapid unscheduled disassembly”
US looking to further restrict
… Read MoreWhat if China doesn’t want TSMC’s factories but wants to take them out?
Insights into the Semiconductor Industry and the Semiconductor Supply Chain
I am not an expert in geopolitical issues, but lately, my research has begun to worry me. As I was preparing to be interviewed for Chinese media, I was in my “Chinese Zone”, adapting to what is palatable to a Chinese audience. Maybe my mode provoked the thought:… Read More
Intel should be the Free World’s Plan A Not Plan B, and we need the US Government to step in
There are trillions of dollars at stake with AI and huge geopolitical consequences. However, the weak foundation to American technological power is their dependence on Taiwan and TSMC, which is where most advanced silicon is manufactured. America has also been taking China to the ropes lately in their economic/technology proxy… Read More
2024 Semiconductor Cycle Outlook – The Shape of Things to Come – Where we Stand
- What kind of recovery do we expect, if any, after 2 down years?
- What impact will China have on the recovery of mature market chips?
- What will memory recovery look like? Will we return to stupid spend?
- Stock selection ever more critical in tepid recovery
Chip stocks have rocketed but the industry itself, not so much, “Anticipation….is
… Read MoreAMAT- Facing Criminal Charges for China Exports – Overshadows OK Quarter
– News that AMAT facing criminal charges for violating China sanctions
– Sounds like Ion implant tools sent to SMIC in China via South Korea
– Criminal probe goes back to shipments starting in 2021 & 2022
– Overshadows an otherwise OK quarter and outlook
Reuters broke the news on the day of earnings
… Read MoreLRCX- QTR OK but outlook mixed- At half of revs, China is huge risk- Memory poor
- LRCX has OK QTR but “challenging outlook” – Memory still sucks
- China at 48% is a huge risk given potential of more sanctions
- Leading & trailing logic both poor- no recovery in sight yet
- Memory spending at historical lows for NAND
Quarter came in OK but outlook seems weak and unclear
Revenues came in at $3.48B… Read More
Micron Chip & Memory Down Cycle – It Ain’t Over Til it’s Over Maybe Longer and Deeper
- The memory down cycle is longer/deeper than many thought
- The recovery will be slower than past cycles- a “U” rather than “V”
- AI & new apps don’t make up for macro weakness
- Negative for overall semis & equip- Could China extend downcycle?