There are trillions of dollars at stake with AI and huge geopolitical consequences. However, the weak foundation to American technological power is their dependence on Taiwan and TSMC, which is where most advanced silicon is manufactured. America has also been taking China to the ropes lately in their economic/technology proxy… Read More
Tag: china
2024 Semiconductor Cycle Outlook – The Shape of Things to Come – Where we Stand
- What kind of recovery do we expect, if any, after 2 down years?
- What impact will China have on the recovery of mature market chips?
- What will memory recovery look like? Will we return to stupid spend?
- Stock selection ever more critical in tepid recovery
Chip stocks have rocketed but the industry itself, not so much, “Anticipation….is
… Read MoreAMAT- Facing Criminal Charges for China Exports – Overshadows OK Quarter
– News that AMAT facing criminal charges for violating China sanctions
– Sounds like Ion implant tools sent to SMIC in China via South Korea
– Criminal probe goes back to shipments starting in 2021 & 2022
– Overshadows an otherwise OK quarter and outlook
Reuters broke the news on the day of earnings
… Read MoreLRCX- QTR OK but outlook mixed- At half of revs, China is huge risk- Memory poor
- LRCX has OK QTR but “challenging outlook” – Memory still sucks
- China at 48% is a huge risk given potential of more sanctions
- Leading & trailing logic both poor- no recovery in sight yet
- Memory spending at historical lows for NAND
Quarter came in OK but outlook seems weak and unclear
Revenues came in at $3.48B… Read More
Micron Chip & Memory Down Cycle – It Ain’t Over Til it’s Over Maybe Longer and Deeper
- The memory down cycle is longer/deeper than many thought
- The recovery will be slower than past cycles- a “U” rather than “V”
- AI & new apps don’t make up for macro weakness
- Negative for overall semis & equip- Could China extend downcycle?
Micron report suggests a longer deeper down cycle
… Read MoreHas U.S. already lost Chip war to China? Is Taiwan’s silicon shield a liability?
- Huawei’s 7NM chip? This wasn’t supposed to happen
- Are Chips a weapon for U.S. or China? Role reversal?
- Will Taiwan turn from protected asset to unwanted liability?
- Are sanctions so porous that US has already lost to China?
While EUV is critical to advanced chips there are workarounds
Many people either thought or assumed… Read More
ASML-Strong Results & Guide Prove China Concerns Overblown-Chips Slow to Recover
-ASML reports better results & guide despite China restrictions
-Supports our view of China issues not that impactful longer term
-Industry recovery seems very far off with more delays
-ASML remains the best, most robust story in a weak industry
ASML reports nice beat despite China concerns
ASML reported revenues of Euro6.9B… Read More
Has Electronics Bottomed?
The current slump in the electronics market began in 2021. Smartphone shipments versus a year earlier turned negative in 3Q 2021. The smartphone market declines in 2020 were primarily due to COVID-19 related production cutbacks. The current smartphone decline is due to weak demand. According to IDC, smartphone shipments were… Read More
LAM Not Yet at Bottom Memory Worsening Down 50%
-Lam reported in line results on reduced expectations
-Guidance disappoints as memory decline continues
-Memory capex down 50% but still sees “further declines”
-Lam ties future to EUV maybe not good idea after ASML report
Lam comes in above grossly already reduced expectations
and misses on guidance
We always … Read More
AMAT- Flat is better than down-Trailing tool strength offsets memory- backlog up
-Strength in trailing tools offsets weak memory resulting in flat
-Order book very volatile but backlog surprisingly still grew
-Trailing edge VS Leading edge = 50/50 – Foundry/logic over 2/3
-Not nearly as bad as Lam but not as good as ASML
AMAT posts good quarter & guide – Flat for three quarters
Applied Materials… Read More