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Intel Reports Second-Quarter 2025 Financial Results

you missed the best part. Intel will be at 75K employees at end of year.
Pat decided to prioritize and invest in foundry. the write off will cost Intel about 50B

LBT will focus on things Intel can win at.
DZ mentioned during the earning. Asset under constructions is down from the previous stated $50B to high mid 30B. The number will further go down next year. They are digesting those assets. I guess they can just complete one shell for Ohio (skip the second one) and delay installation till there is concrete demands for its process (18A or 14A).
 
That’s true. I’m sure the Singapore govt has that money. But they are sonewhat frugal and won’t spent 10 billion incentives unless there are very concrete roadmap and commitment. I am guessing 1 to 2 billion is the max

GF open a sister FAB7 site at a cost of $5Bn SGD.

Dunno how much the Singapore Govt Chip in.

10Bn is an absolute no-no in the current climate.
 
@DanX

I guess that you assume subtracting labor cost from gross profit will come out operating profit. This is probably incorrect.

Gross Profit = Revenue - COGS (Cost of Goods Sold)

COGS includes expenses like raw materials, direct labor, and manufacturing overhead

Operating Profit = Gross Profit - Operating Expense

Operating Expense includes expenses like:

Office supplies
Insurance
Rent
Utilities
Salaries and wages (indirect ones)
Legal fees
Property taxes
Marketing
Repairs
Travel expenses
Accounting fees
License fees
Advertising cost
Bank charges
Depreciation <-- Huge in semiconductor industry
Maintenance
Accounting expenditures
Other overhead costs
Research and development <-- Huge in semiconductor industry
Yes, I did not include depreciation , but I do regard R&D as part of labor.
I stand by my point. I’m just doing a rough estimate.
IFS has already purchased the EUVs.
Given the second-source and tariff concerns, I figure Apple and others would accept a selling price of around $1.10 or even $1.20.
 
Yes, I did not include depreciation , but I do regard R&D as part of labor.
I stand by my point. I’m just doing a rough estimate.
IFS has already purchased the EUVs.
Given the second-source and tariff concerns, I figure Apple and others would accept a selling price of around $1.10 or even $1.20.

Let me explore this a little further:

There are two types of labor expenses. The first is direct labor expense, which is directly related to the manufacturing of semiconductors. This type of labor cost is included in the Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) and is factored in when calculating Gross Profit.


Revenue – COGS = Gross Profit



The second type is indirect labor expense, such as wages paid to HR, finance, and marketing personnel. This is part of operating expenses, but it’s just one of many components within the operating expenses.


Gross Profit – Operating Expenses = Operating Profit


In your calculation, I believe you attributed the 10% difference between Gross Profit Margin and Operating Profit Margin to labor costs. However, this assumption is questionable. That’s because direct labor expenses, usually a significant labor component in semiconductor manufacturing, are already accounted for in COGS and reflected in Gross Profit. We can't count them again when analyzing Operating Profit.

The indirect labor costs mentioned earlier are typically much smaller in proportion and are included under “Marketing, General, and Administrative” (MG&A) in financial statements.

On the other hand, R&D expense is typically a large and distinct item within operating expenses in the semiconductor manufacturing business. It is usually listed separately in financial reports and is not grouped with either direct or indirect labor expenses.


In the diagrams below for 2024, TSMC reported US$6.355 billion in Research and Development spending, while Intel reported US$16.546 billion.


TSMC 2024 Revenue, Operating Profit, and Net Profit

1753579972836.png




Intel 2024 Revenue, Operating Profit, and Net Profit

1753580211709.png
 
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Let me explore this a little further:

There are two types of labor expenses. The first is direct labor expense, which is directly related to the manufacturing of semiconductors. This type of labor cost is included in the Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) and is factored in when calculating Gross Profit :


Revenue – COGS = Gross Profit


The second type is indirect labor expense, such as wages paid to HR, finance, and marketing personnel. This is part of operating expenses, but it’s just one of many components within the operating expenses.


Gross Profit – Operating Expenses = Operating Profit

Yes, I used a 2:1 ratio for Intel:TSMC .
This assumption is overly simplistic and biased.
But it won't change the point of view.
 
Not all companies treat BCP very seriously. I guess they can always argue TSMC has many fabs outside Taiwan. Monopoly pricing or practices on the other hand is most definitely not part of BCP. In many cases , companies can accept Monopoly pricing and practices for quite a long time until it becomes truly unbearable. That's seems to be the case , at least from what I can see from the recent anti trust cases. One certainly cannot expect Intel to keep funding a second source option till then and meanwhile having no business. So history might repeat again.
In all fairness , I believe Intel foundry plays a valuable role of helping to keep TSMC price hike less drastic. Customers most likely would include intel foundry in price negotiation. This optionality is costly to Intel and they might eventually negotiate an agreement with tsmc to have guaranteed capacity and preferential pricing on next few most advanced node of TSMC and Intel give up on bleeding edge node. TSMC could then exact even more significant pricing powerThis could actually supercharged the Intel product division. After that the foundry can be separated and market valuation will aligned itself. If this hypothetical scenario eventually plays out , the difference in the combined market value of the eventual two entities and the current market value of Intel will be the estimated cost of providing such a second sourcing option. And I m guessing it will be a very large amount that perhaps the industry is free-riding on.
Lip-bu Tan is somewhat saying in plain language that the optionality is coming to an end.

If Intel Foundry’s competition forced TSMC to cut prices by 10%, do customers actually pocket that 10% savings? No, because their competitors also benefit from the lower costs, keeping the playing field level. That's why those customer will not take risk of their core business to help Intel.
 
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