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Is ASML Immune from China Impact?

Is ASML Immune from China Impact?
by Robert Maire on 10-21-2022 at 10:00 am

ASML China Immunity

-ASML has great QTR & Outlook & Huge Euro8.9B orders
-Relatively immune from China due to mainly non leading edge
-Monster Euro38B backlog – 60EUV & 375DUV systems in 2023
-5% China risk to 2023- still mainly supply constrained

ASML proves litho’s place at Apex of semiconductor food chain

ASML announced… Read More


Chip Train Wreck Worsens

Chip Train Wreck Worsens
by Robert Maire on 10-16-2022 at 4:00 pm

Train Wreck Semiconductors 2022

-Semi Equip go from bad to worse as TSMC cuts capex
-Numbers will be slashed for December quarter
-So far just a handful of exceptions to blockade but temporary
-China’s response could be very ugly

Fast motion train wreck

Just when some people thought that Fridays department of commerce announcement couldn’t get worse,… Read More


Semiconductor China Syndrome Meltdown and Mayhem

Semiconductor China Syndrome Meltdown and Mayhem
by Robert Maire on 10-13-2022 at 6:00 am

The China Syndrome

-Commerce Dept drops a 100 page nuke on the Semi industry
-Many words but not a lot of clarity on exact impact
-Implementation & interpretation will be key to quantify impact
-It’s all bad, just a question of how bad

China is the industry’s biggest customer

We all know that China uses most of the world’s semiconductors… Read More


Micron and Memory – Slamming on brakes after going off the cliff without skidmarks

Micron and Memory – Slamming on brakes after going off the cliff without skidmarks
by Robert Maire on 10-03-2022 at 10:00 am

Wiley Coyote Semiconductor Crash 2022 1

-Micron slams on the brakes of capacity & capex-
-But memory market is already over the cliff without skid marks
-It will likely take at least a year to sop up excess capacity
-Collateral impact on Samsung & others even more important

Micron hitting the brakes after memory market already impacts

Micron capped off an otherwise… Read More


The Semiconductor Cycle Snowballs Down the Food Chain – Gravitational Cognizance

The Semiconductor Cycle Snowballs Down the Food Chain – Gravitational Cognizance
by Robert Maire on 09-02-2022 at 6:00 am

Wiley Coyote Semiconductor Crash 2022

-Where are we in the chip cycle? Why is it different this time?
-No one rings a bell to indicate the top or bottom of a cycle
-Could the lack of self-awareness lead to a worse downturn?
-Who will weather the cycle better & come out on top

Gravitational Cognizance
“A cartoon character will not fall until they realize they should

Read More

KLAC same triple threat headwinds Supply, Economy & China

KLAC same triple threat headwinds Supply, Economy & China
by Robert Maire on 08-07-2022 at 10:00 am

KLA Tencor

-KLA sings same cautionary song as LRCX (with Intel Chorus)
-Sees similar softening of WFE & second half
-Same Government “notice” on China/14NM – Same supply ills
-We remain concerned about share loss in patterning

Deja Vue, all over again- Great QTR & Guide amid caution & softening

KLAC reported… Read More


LRCX – Great QTR and guide but gathering China storm

LRCX – Great QTR and guide but gathering China storm
by Robert Maire on 08-04-2022 at 10:00 am

Lam Research Headquarters

-Lam reports record QTR and great guide amid growing anxiety
-Weakness has not yet trickled down to Lam’s order book
-Company contacted by US government on new China restrictions
-Combination of supply issues/China/economy cut WFE view

Numbers are great

Lam reported revenues of $4.64B and EPS of $8.83 which represented… Read More


Intel & Chips Act Passage Juxtaposition

Intel & Chips Act Passage Juxtaposition
by Robert Maire on 07-31-2022 at 6:00 am

Chips Act Corporate Welfare

-Need more/less spend & more/fewer chips
-The irony of chips act passage & Intel stumble on same day
-Due to excess supply of chips, Intel cuts spending
-Due to shortage of chips, the government increases spending
-How did this happen on the same day? Cosmic Coincidence?

Timing is everything

The irony of intel cutting spending… Read More


ASML Business is so Great it Looks Bad

ASML Business is so Great it Looks Bad
by Robert Maire on 07-24-2022 at 6:00 am

ASML Systems 2022

-ASML reports strong quarter- Orders up 20% Qtr/Qtr
-Customers rush delivery which delays revenue recognition
-Chip makers need hard to get litho tools most of all
-Warning on concerns about consumer chip demand

Good numbers that are even better in reality

ASML reported revenues of Euro5.4B and EPS of Euro3.54. Most importantly… Read More


SEMICON West the Calm Before Storm? CHIPS Act Hail Mary? Old China Embargo New Again?

SEMICON West the Calm Before Storm? CHIPS Act Hail Mary? Old China Embargo New Again?
by Robert Maire on 07-17-2022 at 6:00 am

SEMICON West 2022

-SEMICON good conference -No news but perceptibly nervous
-Memory chip warnings & memories of cycles past haunt us
-Can we turn the clock back 20+ years on China Chip Policy?
-Last ditch efforts on Chips for America before government vacation

SEMICON West Conference

Attendance at the show was good, better than last Decembers… Read More