- Investors finally realize the upcycle isn’t as strong as stocks indicated
- Industry Bifurcation between AI & rest of industry continues
- China spending risk/overhang finally kicks in
- AI is super strong, majority of chips remain weak- Invest accordingly
Author: Robert Maire
ASML surprise not a surprise (to us)- Bifurcation- Stocks reset- China headfake
SPIE Monterey- ASML, INTC – High NA Readiness- Bigger Masks/Smaller Features
– SPIE Photomask -all about High NA and bigger masks
– High NA will ramp very fast & is ramping fast – two already at Intel
– Doubling size of photomask will offset High NA exposure size problem
– Assembling litho tools at customer saves time/money- “Scanner Kits”
Christophe Fouquet
… Read MoreSamsung Adds to Bad Semiconductor News
- Samsung follows Intel in staff reductions due to weakness in chips
- Chip industry split between haves & have nots (AI & rest of chips)
- Capital spend under pressure – Facing Eventual China issues
- Stick with monopolies, avoid commodities
Samsung announces layoffs amid weak chip business and outlook
Samsung announced… Read More
AMAT Underwhelms- China & GM & ICAP Headwinds- AI is only Driver- Slow Recovery
- AMAT reports good but underwhelming quarter
- China slowing creates revenue & GM headwinds- ICAPs weak
- AI remains the one and only bright spot in both foundry & memory
- Cyclical recovery remains slow – Single digit Y/Y growth
OK quarter – still slow growing, revs up only 5% Y/Y
AMAT came in at revenues of $6.78B… Read More
LRCX Good but not good enough results, AMAT Epic failure and Slow Steady Recovery
- Lam reported good numbers with slightly soft guide
- Investors are figuring out the up cycle will be slower than thought
- Looks like AMAT won’t get CHIPS act money for Epic facility
- Steady improvement but stocks still ahead of themselves-Correction?
Lam reports good numbers (as usual) but guide not good enough
Lam reported… Read More
The China Syndrome- The Meltdown Starts- Trump Trounces Taiwan- Chips Clipped
- The chip industry got a double tap of both China & Taiwan concerns
- Bloomberg reported the potential for draconian China chip restrictions
- Trump threw Taiwan under the bus demanding “protection money”
- Over-inflated chip stocks had a “rapid unscheduled disassembly”
US looking to further restrict
… Read MoreSEMICON West- Jubilant huge crowds- HBM & AI everywhere – CHIPS Act & IMEC
– We just finished the most happy SEMICON West in a long time
– IMEC stole the show- HBM has more impact than size dictates
– Has Samsung lost its memory mojo? Is SK the new leader?
– AI brings new tech issues with it – TSMC is still industry King
Report from SEMICON West
The crowds at Semicon West were both… Read More
KLAC- Past bottom of cycle- up from here- early positive signs-packaging upside
– KLA reported a good QTR but more importantly passing the bottom
– Lead times mean KLA gets orders early in up cycle-just behind ASML
– Potential upside in upcycle as packaging needs more process control
– 2024 2nd half weighted with stronger recovery likely in 2025
A solid quarter as expected with good
… Read MoreLRCX- Mediocre, flattish, long, U shaped bottom- No recovery in sight yet-2025?
– Lam reports another flat quarter & guide- No recovery in sight yet
– Seems like no expectation of recovery until 2025- Mixed results
– DRAM good- NAND weak- Foundry/Logic mixed-Mature weakening
– Clearly disappointing to investors & stock hoping for a chip recovery
Another Flat Quarter &
… Read MoreASML- Soft revenues & Orders – But…China 49% – Memory Improving
ASML- better EPS but weaker revenues- 2024 recovery on track
China jumps 10% to 49%- Memory looking better @59% of orders
Order lumpiness increases with ASP- EUV will be up-DUV down
“Passing Bottom” of what has been a long down cycle
Weak revenues & orders but OK EPS
Reported revenue was Euro5.3B and EPS of Euro3.11… Read More
Unlocking the cloud: A new era for post-tapeout flow for semiconductor manufacturing