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- Consumer memory slowing more than AI gaining causing weakness
- HBM sold out for 2025- HBM is most of Capex- NAND near zero
- Big miss on Q1 guide crushes stock on disappointment
- Positive for Nvidia- Negative for Broadcom/Qualcomm
Micron – AI is wonderful & growing out of bounds while consumer sucks
Micron reported in line… Read More
– Semicon Japan super crowded but outlook still uncertain/muted
– Slow analysts finally capitulate on weakening 2025 WFE outlook
– Article confirms our view on chip equip lobbying for China sales
– TSMC continues dominate, China slows, Samsung/Intel weak
Semicon Japan crowded but muted
We attended… Read More
– AMAT has OK QTR but outlook below expectations as 2025 weakens
– Strength in AI cannot offset weakness in the rest of the market
– Increasing headwinds going into 2025 dampen overall outlook
– Weakness combined with regulatory uncertainty reduce valuations
Quarter and year are just OK but outlook is
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– CHIPS Act more likely to be maimed & cut than outright killed
– Will Legislators reverse flow of equipment to Reshore from Offshore?
– Recent order cuts, Fab Delay & SMIC comments are all negative
– News flow for semi equipment all bad in front of AMAT
CHIPS Act Chops likely to occur under new administration
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- KLA put up an OK Quarter & Guide with modest growth & outlook
- 2025 remains slow growth as leading edge offset by China slowing
- China sanctions remain a “great unknown”- impact unclear
- Reticle biz getting squeezed from both high & low ends
OK quarter with slight beat as always- Guide is OK as well
KLA reported… Read More
- Lam put in good quarter with flattish guide- still a slow recovery
- This is better than worst case fears of order drop like ASML
- China spend is slowing but tech spending increase offsets
- Relief rally as the market was braced for bad news and got OK news
Lam has OK, slightly better than in line quarter with OK guide….
It coulda been… Read More
- Investors finally realize the upcycle isn’t as strong as stocks indicated
- Industry Bifurcation between AI & rest of industry continues
- China spending risk/overhang finally kicks in
- AI is super strong, majority of chips remain weak- Invest accordingly
ASML simply states chip industry reality that investors have
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– SPIE Photomask -all about High NA and bigger masks
– High NA will ramp very fast & is ramping fast – two already at Intel
– Doubling size of photomask will offset High NA exposure size problem
– Assembling litho tools at customer saves time/money- “Scanner Kits”
Christophe Fouquet
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- Samsung follows Intel in staff reductions due to weakness in chips
- Chip industry split between haves & have nots (AI & rest of chips)
- Capital spend under pressure – Facing Eventual China issues
- Stick with monopolies, avoid commodities
Samsung announces layoffs amid weak chip business and outlook
Samsung announced… Read More
- AMAT reports good but underwhelming quarter
- China slowing creates revenue & GM headwinds- ICAPs weak
- AI remains the one and only bright spot in both foundry & memory
- Cyclical recovery remains slow – Single digit Y/Y growth
OK quarter – still slow growing, revs up only 5% Y/Y
AMAT came in at revenues of $6.78B… Read More
Happy New Year from SemiWiki