– AMAT has OK QTR but outlook below expectations as 2025 weakens
– Strength in AI cannot offset weakness in the rest of the market
– Increasing headwinds going into 2025 dampen overall outlook
– Weakness combined with regulatory uncertainty reduce valuations
Author: Robert Maire
AMAT has OK Qtr but Mixed Outlook Means Weaker 2025 – China & Delays & CHIPS Act?
More Headwinds – CHIPS Act Chop? – Chip Equip Re-Shore? Orders Canceled & Fab Delay
– CHIPS Act more likely to be maimed & cut than outright killed
– Will Legislators reverse flow of equipment to Reshore from Offshore?
– Recent order cuts, Fab Delay & SMIC comments are all negative
– News flow for semi equipment all bad in front of AMAT
CHIPS Act Chops likely to occur under new administration
… Read MoreKLAC – OK Qtr/Guide – Slow Growth – 2025 Leading Edge Offset by China – Mask Mash
- KLA put up an OK Quarter & Guide with modest growth & outlook
- 2025 remains slow growth as leading edge offset by China slowing
- China sanctions remain a “great unknown”- impact unclear
- Reticle biz getting squeezed from both high & low ends
OK quarter with slight beat as always- Guide is OK as well
KLA reported… Read More
LRCX- Coulda been worse but wasn’t so relief rally- Flattish is better than down
- Lam put in good quarter with flattish guide- still a slow recovery
- This is better than worst case fears of order drop like ASML
- China spend is slowing but tech spending increase offsets
- Relief rally as the market was braced for bad news and got OK news
Lam has OK, slightly better than in line quarter with OK guide….
It coulda been… Read More
ASML surprise not a surprise (to us)- Bifurcation- Stocks reset- China headfake
- Investors finally realize the upcycle isn’t as strong as stocks indicated
- Industry Bifurcation between AI & rest of industry continues
- China spending risk/overhang finally kicks in
- AI is super strong, majority of chips remain weak- Invest accordingly
ASML simply states chip industry reality that investors have
… Read MoreSPIE Monterey- ASML, INTC – High NA Readiness- Bigger Masks/Smaller Features
– SPIE Photomask -all about High NA and bigger masks
– High NA will ramp very fast & is ramping fast – two already at Intel
– Doubling size of photomask will offset High NA exposure size problem
– Assembling litho tools at customer saves time/money- “Scanner Kits”
Christophe Fouquet
… Read MoreSamsung Adds to Bad Semiconductor News
- Samsung follows Intel in staff reductions due to weakness in chips
- Chip industry split between haves & have nots (AI & rest of chips)
- Capital spend under pressure – Facing Eventual China issues
- Stick with monopolies, avoid commodities
Samsung announces layoffs amid weak chip business and outlook
Samsung announced… Read More
AMAT Underwhelms- China & GM & ICAP Headwinds- AI is only Driver- Slow Recovery
- AMAT reports good but underwhelming quarter
- China slowing creates revenue & GM headwinds- ICAPs weak
- AI remains the one and only bright spot in both foundry & memory
- Cyclical recovery remains slow – Single digit Y/Y growth
OK quarter – still slow growing, revs up only 5% Y/Y
AMAT came in at revenues of $6.78B… Read More
LRCX Good but not good enough results, AMAT Epic failure and Slow Steady Recovery
- Lam reported good numbers with slightly soft guide
- Investors are figuring out the up cycle will be slower than thought
- Looks like AMAT won’t get CHIPS act money for Epic facility
- Steady improvement but stocks still ahead of themselves-Correction?
Lam reports good numbers (as usual) but guide not good enough
Lam reported… Read More
The China Syndrome- The Meltdown Starts- Trump Trounces Taiwan- Chips Clipped
- The chip industry got a double tap of both China & Taiwan concerns
- Bloomberg reported the potential for draconian China chip restrictions
- Trump threw Taiwan under the bus demanding “protection money”
- Over-inflated chip stocks had a “rapid unscheduled disassembly”
Analog IC Migration using AI