– Trump gives CHIPS Act & AI oversight to DOGE/Musk-“Tech Support”
– CHIPS Act to switch from incentive based to tariff/punitive based
– Musk to be responsible for US AI policy & security- Will rule ChatGPT
– Talks underway to relocate Taiwan fabs & staff to avoid China threat… Read More
Author: Robert Maire
Elon Musk Given CHIPS Act & AI Oversight – Mulls Relocation of Taiwanese Fabs
CHIPS Act dies because employees are fired – NIST CHIPS people are probationary
– NIST to lose 100’s of mainly CHIPS Act people
– If no people are left to administer CHIPS Act it dies by default
– Following USAID play book to kill an unwanted program
– Using the “probationary” clause as excuse to fire recent CHIPS hires
Trump will kill CHIPS Act by gutting NIST employees
… Read MoreTrump whacking CHIPS Act? When you hold the checkbook, you make up the new rules
- News reports that Trump will change CHIPS Act to suit his views
- We specifically predicted this months ago as deals closed 11th hour
- Blue states, enemies list & foreign entities likely to get cut
- Big changes/cuts likely to a program Trump roundly criticized
Reuters: Exclusive: Trump prepares to change US CHIPS Act conditions,… Read More
AMAT- In line QTR – poor guide as China Chops hit home- China mkt share loss?
- QTR was just “in-line” but guide was below expectations
- We think its not just China export rules but share loss as well
- Leading edge is strong but obviously not enough to offset China
- Memory remains weak-Foundry (TSMC) is the primary driver
Headwinds slow growth to flat
Applied reported $7.166B in revenues and Non … Read More
KLAC Good QTR with AI and HBM drive leading edge and China is Okay
– KLA put up a good qtr & year with consistent growth
– AI & HBM are the main drivers of leading edge which helps KLA
– China slowing but not too fast, Outlook OK but not super
– Wafer inspection is huge but reticle inspection continues to slip
KLA reports good quarter and OK outlook
KLA reported revenues… Read More
Consumer memory slowing more than AI gaining
- Consumer memory slowing more than AI gaining causing weakness
- HBM sold out for 2025- HBM is most of Capex- NAND near zero
- Big miss on Q1 guide crushes stock on disappointment
- Positive for Nvidia- Negative for Broadcom/Qualcomm
Micron – AI is wonderful & growing out of bounds while consumer sucks
Micron reported in line… Read More
If you believe in Hobbits you can believe in Rapidus
– Semicon Japan super crowded but outlook still uncertain/muted
– Slow analysts finally capitulate on weakening 2025 WFE outlook
– Article confirms our view on chip equip lobbying for China sales
– TSMC continues dominate, China slows, Samsung/Intel weak
Semicon Japan crowded but muted
We attended… Read More
AMAT has OK Qtr but Mixed Outlook Means Weaker 2025 – China & Delays & CHIPS Act?
– AMAT has OK QTR but outlook below expectations as 2025 weakens
– Strength in AI cannot offset weakness in the rest of the market
– Increasing headwinds going into 2025 dampen overall outlook
– Weakness combined with regulatory uncertainty reduce valuations
Quarter and year are just OK but outlook is
… Read MoreMore Headwinds – CHIPS Act Chop? – Chip Equip Re-Shore? Orders Canceled & Fab Delay
– CHIPS Act more likely to be maimed & cut than outright killed
– Will Legislators reverse flow of equipment to Reshore from Offshore?
– Recent order cuts, Fab Delay & SMIC comments are all negative
– News flow for semi equipment all bad in front of AMAT
CHIPS Act Chops likely to occur under new administration
… Read MoreKLAC – OK Qtr/Guide – Slow Growth – 2025 Leading Edge Offset by China – Mask Mash
- KLA put up an OK Quarter & Guide with modest growth & outlook
- 2025 remains slow growth as leading edge offset by China slowing
- China sanctions remain a “great unknown”- impact unclear
- Reticle biz getting squeezed from both high & low ends
OK quarter with slight beat as always- Guide is OK as well
KLA reported… Read More
TSMC 2025 Technical Symposium Briefing