Overview

Moore’s Law is an empirical observation stating that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles approximately every two years, leading to exponential improvements in computing performance, efficiency, and cost per function. It has been a guiding principle for the semiconductor industry for over five decades, driving innovation in microprocessors, memory, and system-on-chip (SoC) designs.

Although not a physical law of nature, Moore’s Law has served as a roadmap and self-fulfilling prophecy, inspiring advancements in lithography, materials, packaging, and architectural techniques.

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Origin

• Coined by: Gordon E. Moore, co-founder of Intel Corporation.

• Original prediction (1965): Transistors would double every year.

• Revised (1975): The doubling rate slowed to every two years.

• Published in Electronics Magazine, Moore’s article projected growth for about a decade—but the trend persisted far longer.

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Implications of Moore’s Law

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Moore’s Law and Semiconductor Scaling

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Extensions of Moore’s Law

To sustain Moore’s Law, the industry began innovating beyond pure transistor shrinking:

1. More-than-Moore (MtM)

• Adds functionality via heterogeneous integration: sensors, RF, analog, photonics.

2. 3D IC / Advanced Packaging

• Technologies like TSMC CoWoS, Intel Foveros, and chiplets/UCIe increase effective transistor density through vertical and modular scaling.

3. Design Technology Co-Optimization (DTCO)

• Co-designing devices, standard cells, EDA tools, and libraries for each process node.

4. System Technology Co-Optimization (STCO)

• System-level optimization including power delivery, thermals, interconnect, and memory hierarchy.

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Physical and Economic Limits

Moore’s Law has slowed due to multiple constraints:

Despite these, innovations like EUV lithography, GAA-FETs, AI-driven design, and chiplets are extending its relevance.

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Is Moore’s Law Dead?

While classic scaling has slowed, many argue Moore’s Law is evolving, not ending:

• Intel, TSMC, and Samsung continue roadmap development through 2nm, GAA-FETs, and 3D packaging.

• NVIDIA, Apple, AMD, and others drive performance-per-watt via architecture and software optimization.

• AI acceleration, heterogeneous compute, and domain-specific architectures are enabling post-Moore growth.

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Related Concepts

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Organizations Driving Moore’s Law

• Intel: Moore’s Law originator and process scaling leader.

• TSMC: Leading foundry enabling 3nm and below nodes.

• Samsung: Pioneer of GAA transistor implementation.

• ASML: Developer of EUV lithography tools.

• IBM: Advanced node R&D, including 2nm and 3D chip stacking.

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Famous Quotes

Gordon E. Moore (Co-founder of Intel)

• “The number of transistors on a chip will double approximately every two years.”
  – Gordon Moore, 1965

• “It can’t continue forever. The nature of exponentials is that you push them out and eventually disaster happens.”
  – Gordon Moore, on the eventual limits of Moore’s Law

• “What drove me was a strong desire to solve technical problems… It’s nice to have your name associated with something that’s meaningful.”
  – Gordon Moore, reflecting on Moore’s Law

“Moore’s Law is alive and well.”— Pat Gelsinger, Intel CEO, 2023

• Moore’s Law is not a law of physics; it’s a law of human ingenuity.”
  – Brian Krzanich, former CEO of Intel

• “The end of Moore’s Law is not the end of progress.”
  – Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA

• “Even if Moore’s Law slows down, there’s no law preventing us from innovating in other dimensions.”
  – Lisa Su, CEO of AMD

• “Moore’s Law is alive, but it’s getting harder and more expensive to sustain.”
  – Tsu-Jae King Liu, Dean of UC Berkeley College of Engineering

• Moore’s Law is what allowed Apple to shrink a room-sized computer into your pocket.”
  – Popular tech media paraphrase

• “Moore’s Law isn’t dead. It’s evolved.”
  – Common industry refrain as innovation shifts to 3D ICs, chiplets, and new architectures

• “If the automobile had followed Moore’s Law, a Rolls-Royce would cost $3 today and go 2 million miles per gallon.”
  – Comparison often cited to show the exponential nature of Moore’s Law

• “We will keep Moore’s Law alive for the next decade.”
  – Raja Koduri, former Intel Chief Architect

• “The roadmaps may no longer double transistors every 18–24 months, but innovation isn’t slowing down.”
  – Jim Keller, microprocessor architect (Intel, AMD, Tesla)

• “With 3D packaging, Moore’s Law becomes more of a system-level law.”
  – Lisa Su, AMD CEO

• “Moore’s Law is more alive than ever — it’s just not in two dimensions anymore.”
  – Mark Liu, former TSMC Chairman

• “Moore’s Law became a self-fulfilling prophecy — a target for the industry to hit.”
  – Anonymous engineer, quoted in IEEE Spectrum

• “It’s the economic engine of the modern world.”
  – Marc Andreessen, investor, on Moore’s Law and its influence

• “The most important trend in technology history.”
  – Ray Kurzweil, futurist and author

• “Moore’s Law enabled the software revolution by supplying exponential hardware improvements.”
  – Bill Gates, Microsoft founder

• “Moore’s Law is why computers became invisible — and indispensable.”
  – Paul Saffo, technology forecaster

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