The Semiconductor Market Downturn Has Started

The Semiconductor Market Downturn Has Started
by Malcolm Penn on 08-07-2022 at 6:00 am

Growth Rate Trends

What we alone said would surely happen, but what was widely denied by the industry, was confirmed with June’s WSTS Blue Book report.  Right on cue with our December 2021 forecast, the current semiconductor Super Cycle is finally drawing to a close and the 17th market downturn has now well and truly started.

The Macro Evidence

At the… Read More


Semiconductors Weakening in 2022

Semiconductors Weakening in 2022
by Bill Jewell on 06-18-2022 at 6:00 am

June 2022 companies

The semiconductor market in 2022 is weakening. Driving factors include rising inflation, the Russian war on Ukraine, COVID-19 related shutdowns in China, and lingering supply chain issues. Four of the top 14 semiconductor companies (Intel, Qualcomm, Nvidia and Texas Instruments) are expecting lower revenues in 2Q 2022 versus… Read More


Semiconductor CapEx Warning

Semiconductor CapEx Warning
by Bill Jewell on 04-27-2022 at 4:00 pm

CAPEX Growth 2022

Semiconductor makers are planning strong capital expenditure (CapEx) growth in 2022. According to IC Insights, 13 companies plan to increase CapEx in 2022 by over 40% from 2021. The largest CapEx for 2022 will be from TSMC at $42 billion, up 40%, and Intel at $27 billion, up 44%. IC Insights is forecasting total semiconductor industry… Read More


Semiconductor CapEx too strong?

Semiconductor CapEx too strong?
by Bill Jewell on 10-28-2021 at 1:00 pm

Oct 2021 capex2

Semiconductor capital expenditures (CapEx) are on track for strong growth in 2021. For many companies the increase should continue into 2022. TSMC, the dominant foundry company, expects to spend $30 billion in CapEx in 2021, a 74% increase from 2020. TSMC announced in March it plans to invest $100 billion over the next three years,… Read More


Supply Issues Limit 2021 Semiconductor Growth

Supply Issues Limit 2021 Semiconductor Growth
by Bill Jewell on 05-23-2021 at 10:00 am

Top Semiconductor Revenues 2021

Worldwide semiconductor shipments were $123.1 billion in 1Q 2021, up 3.6% from 4Q 2020 and up 17.8% from a year ago, according to WSTS. The 3.6% quarter-to-quarter growth was the highest for a first quarter since 1Q 2010, eleven years ago. The strong growth in 1Q21 implies strong growth in the following quarters and for the year 2021.… Read More


Electronics Back Strongly in 2021

Electronics Back Strongly in 2021
by Bill Jewell on 03-19-2021 at 8:00 am

Electronics Production 2021

Electronics production has recovered strongly from slowdowns due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Most major Asian electronic producers reported double-digit increases in early 2021. The chart below shows three-month-average change versus a year ago for electronics production. The data is from each country’s official statistics… Read More


Semiconductor Boom in 2021

Semiconductor Boom in 2021
by Bill Jewell on 11-23-2020 at 6:00 pm

Top Semiconductor Revenue 2020

The third quarter 2020 semiconductor market totaled $114 billion, up 11.0% from second quarter 2020, according to World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS). The 3Q20 growth was the highest since 11.6% in 3Q16. The strong 3Q20 growth follows a 2.1% decline in 2Q20 versus 1Q20. The second quarter is normally a healthy growth … Read More


As 2019 comes to an end everyone is starting to look at what 2020 holds

As 2019 comes to an end everyone is starting to look at what 2020 holds
by Mark Dyson on 12-09-2019 at 10:00 am

At the moment there are many encouraging signs based on the latest data. Let’s hope this trend continues into 2002 and 2020 is the year of recovery of the semiconductor market. However much depends on how the US China trade war pans out. Last week Trump blew hot and cold saying everything from the negotiations were going very well to… Read More


Semiconductors back to growth in 2020

Semiconductors back to growth in 2020
by Bill Jewell on 09-24-2019 at 11:30 am

Semiconductor market forecasts 2019 to 2021

The global semiconductor market is headed for the largest decline in 18 years. The market dropped 32% in 2001 when the Internet bubble burst. The 2019 decline should be around 15%, the third largest annual drop after 2001 and a 17% drop in 1985. The current weakness is largely due to excess memory capacity (DRAM and NAND flash) relative… Read More


Double-digit semiconductor decline in 2019

Double-digit semiconductor decline in 2019
by Bill Jewell on 06-27-2019 at 4:00 pm

The global semiconductor market is headed for a double-digit decline for the year 2019 after a decline of 15.6% in first quarter 2019 from fourth quarter 2018. According to WSTS (World Semiconductor Trade Statistics) data, this was the largest quarter-to-quarter decline since a 16.3% decline in first quarter 2009, ten years … Read More