Lam beats reduced guide as 2019 is done and 2020 is just a hope!

Lam beats reduced guide as 2019 is done and 2020 is just a hope!
by Robert Maire on 08-02-2019 at 4:00 am

Nice house in a neighborhood in decline

Lam posted EPS and revenues ahead of reduced expectations, but guided the current quarter below street current estimates.

Is a “beat” really a “beat” if its against greatly reduced numbers? We would remind investors that we are looking at EPS cut more or less in … Read More


Semicon West was sluggish with hopes of 2020 recovery

Semicon West was sluggish with hopes of 2020 recovery
by Robert Maire on 07-17-2019 at 6:00 am

Bouncing along a not too bad bottom
Given that we have followed the semiconductor industry through many down cycles, we can safely say that this one isn’t all that bad by comparison. Everyone, big & small, is still safely profitable and in relatively good shape. Though we are seeing the normal week long holiday shut downs

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Micron beats subdued guidance on output cuts

Micron beats subdued guidance on output cuts
by Robert Maire on 06-26-2019 at 5:00 am

2020 capex likely down at least 20% vs 2019 DRAM & NAND price drops versus slowing capacity. Investors happy cause it could have been worse.

Micron reported $1.05 in Non-GAAP EPS beating street consensus of $0.79 by $0.26. While this looks like a big beat, we would remind investors that estimates for the quarter were about… Read More


Chips are the bleeding edge of China trade war Recovery

Chips are the bleeding edge of China trade war Recovery
by Robert Maire on 05-17-2019 at 7:00 am

Last week we warned of a further down leg due to China trade. We were surprised how quickly our prediction came true as it appears we are now in the midst of giving back all the upside built in to stocks based on a peaceful resolution of the trade conflict which obviously isn’t happening.

Many of the semi stocks we cover were down… Read More


TechInsights Gives Memory Update at IEDM18 DRAM and Emerging Memories

TechInsights Gives Memory Update at IEDM18 DRAM and Emerging Memories
by BHD on 04-17-2019 at 12:00 pm

On the Sunday evening at IEDM last year, TechInsights held a reception in which Arabinda Das and Jeongdong Choe gave presentations that attracted a roomful of conference attendees.

This is the second part of the review of Jeongdong’s talk, we covered NAND flash technology in the last post. Jeongdong is a Senior Technical… Read More


2018 Semiconductor Year in Review

2018 Semiconductor Year in Review
by Scotten Jones on 01-04-2019 at 12:00 pm

Strong Overall Market Growth but a Slowdown Looms
After six years of single digit percentage growth in the overall semiconductor market, 2017 saw almost 22% growth and 2018 year-to-date is up roughly 17% (based on numbers published by the world semiconductor trade statistics). The big growth driver the last two years has been … Read More


Apple as Apex of chip industry portends weaker 2019

Apple as Apex of chip industry portends weaker 2019
by Robert Maire on 01-04-2019 at 7:00 am

On the first day of trading in the new year Apple just announced, after the close, that revenues will be lower than previously expected coming in at $84B versus the expected range of $89B to $93B and analyst estimates of the current quarter at $91.5B. Ugly….. The blame was laid squarely on China as slowing sales and trade tensions… Read More


CAPEX Cuts and Microns Memory Markdown

CAPEX Cuts and Microns Memory Markdown
by Robert Maire on 12-21-2018 at 7:00 am

For those who have been paying any attention to the semiconductor industry its no surprise that memory demand and therefore pricing is down from its peak earlier in the year. Its not getting better any time fast.

After several strong years of demand and pricing, which was followed by enormous CAPEX spending we are seeing the standard… Read More


ASML most immune to slow down due to lead times Not LRCX

ASML most immune to slow down due to lead times Not LRCX
by Robert Maire on 10-21-2018 at 7:00 am

ASML reported EUR2.78B in revenues with EUR2.08B in systems. 58% was for memory. EUV was EUR513M with 5 systems. Importantly orders were for EUR2.20B in systems at 64% memory and 5 EUV tools. This was likely better than expectations given the overall industry weakness. EPS of EUR1.60 was more or less in line with expectations. Guidance… Read More


AMAT talks long term AI but short term is ugly

AMAT talks long term AI but short term is ugly
by Robert Maire on 07-15-2018 at 7:00 am

We attended Semicon West Monday and Tuesday, the annual show for the semi equipment industry. Its very clear from discussions with all our sources in the industry that confirm that Samsung has put the brakes on spending on memory and that message was reinforced by declines in their expected profitability due to weaker memory pricing.… Read More