Memory Oligopoly Woes – Micron Says They Will Not Increase Wafer Output In DRAM Or NAND For The Foreseeable Future

Memory Oligopoly Woes – Micron Says They Will Not Increase Wafer Output In DRAM Or NAND For The Foreseeable Future
by Dylan Patel on 09-30-2021 at 2:00 pm

DRAM Scaling 2021 SemiWiki Micron

Memory pricing and margins are at highs as industry consolidation and semiconductor shortages drive the supply demand balance completely out of whack. A common theme of the memory industry has been continued consolidation. We are at only 3 leading edge DRAM producers, and the number of NAND producers is dwindling even with the … Read More


Micron- Optane runs out of Octane- Bye Bye Lehi- US chip effort takes a hit

Micron- Optane runs out of Octane- Bye Bye Lehi- US chip effort takes a hit
by Robert Maire on 03-21-2021 at 6:00 am

Intel Optane Micron SemiWiki

– Micron shuts down once promising XPoint
– Lehi Utah fab to be sold off- Had been a $400M drain
– Unique memory couldn’t follow flash down cost/yield curve
– Savings helps Micron but its now just another memory maker

XPoint “Coulda been a contender”

XPoint should have amounted to more… Read More


Will EUV take a Breather in 2021?

Will EUV take a Breather in 2021?
by Robert Maire on 02-07-2021 at 6:00 am

KLA EUV Slowdown

-KLAC- Solid QTR & Guide but flat 2021 outlook
-Display down & more memory mix
-KLAC has very solid Dec Qtr & guide but 2021 looks flattish
-Mix shift to memory doesn’t help- Display weakness
-Despite flat still looking at double digit growth
-EUV driven business may see some slowing from digestion

As always, … Read More


China Semiconductor Bond Bust!

China Semiconductor Bond Bust!
by Robert Maire on 11-25-2020 at 10:00 am

China Semiconductor Bond Bust

– Tsinghua $198M Bond Bust
– Good for memory: Samsung Micron LG Toshiba –
– Not good for chip equipment
– Could China Credit Crunch hit more than foundry embargo?
– Damage to China memory positive for other memory makers
– Not good for chip equip if customers can’t get money

China’s… Read More


2021 will be the year of DRAM!

2021 will be the year of DRAM!
by Robert Maire on 11-15-2020 at 6:00 am

Robert Maire Bloomberg

2020 has been a NAND growth year-2021 will be the year of DRAM. While foundry logic has gotten all the credit in 2020 the reality is that NAND has been up 2X in 2020 for semiconductor equipment provider Applied Materials (AMAT). It is expected that NAND will be flat in 2021 while DRAM will take over the growth slot with foundry/logic … Read More


Is Intel Losing its Memory?

Is Intel Losing its Memory?
by Robert Maire on 10-19-2020 at 12:00 pm

Intel SK Hynix NAND
  • It’s reported that Intel is selling its NAND ops to SK Hynix
  • Would likely get Intel out of a tough & distracting market
  • Is Intel abandoning China? Like Intel’s sale of XPoint to Micron

Getting out of NAND makes sense
The memory market is very tough, competitive and worst of all, very cyclical. Unless you have an iron… Read More


Toshiba Cost Model for 3D NAND

Toshiba Cost Model for 3D NAND
by Fred Chen on 10-11-2020 at 8:00 am

Toshiba Cost Model for 3D NAND

Toshiba (now known as Kioxia) was the first company to propose a 3D stacked version of NAND Flash memory called BICS [1]. BICS (BICost Scalable) Flash used explicit process cost reduction based on depositing and etching multiple layers at once, avoiding multiple lithography steps. This strategy replaced the usual approach… Read More


Minimal Corona Impact on Chip Equipment Stocks

Minimal Corona Impact on Chip Equipment Stocks
by Robert Maire on 02-16-2020 at 6:00 am

Coronavirus Light SemiWiki

Very solid quarter driven by foundry/logic
AMAT reported a very solid quarter, beating the top end of guidance with foundry and logic being the primary drivers of spend. Revenues were $4.16B and EPS of $0.98 non-GAAP versus street of $4.11B and $0.93 EPS.

Guide not too wide… – $300M “Corona Cut”
More importantly,… Read More


Logic and Memory Make for a Recovery

Logic and Memory Make for a Recovery
by Robert Maire on 02-03-2020 at 6:00 am

Lam Research 2020
  • LAM- “Logic And Memory” make for a recovery-NAND (Samsung) & Logic (TSMC) + China
  • Great Q4 Results & Q1 guide as memory restarts
  • Logic strength continues-China is crucial to growth
  • 2019 better than expected- 2020 WFE up about 5-8%

Lam reports nice finish to 2019 and start of 2020
The company reported revenues… Read More


Could TSMC’s spend be part of the seasonal pattern?

Could TSMC’s spend be part of the seasonal pattern?
by Robert Maire on 11-25-2019 at 5:00 am

Is there more downside than upside in stocks?
Entering a seasonally weak period, then what?
Does China trade come back to haunt industry?
Cycle is past the bottom-But what kind of up cycle?

The most recent up cycle in the industry was a huge one, driven by a huge spend on NAND as SSD’s sucked up infinite number of devices. DRAM … Read More