LRCX- Mediocre, flattish, long, U shaped bottom- No recovery in sight yet-2025?

LRCX- Mediocre, flattish, long, U shaped bottom- No recovery in sight yet-2025?
by Robert Maire on 04-29-2024 at 8:00 am

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– Lam reports another flat quarter & guide- No recovery in sight yet
– Seems like no expectation of recovery until 2025- Mixed results
– DRAM good- NAND weak- Foundry/Logic mixed-Mature weakening
– Clearly disappointing to investors & stock hoping for a chip recovery

Another Flat Quarter &
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KLAC- OK Quarter & flat guide- Hopefully 2025 recovery- Big China % & Backlog

KLAC- OK Quarter & flat guide- Hopefully 2025 recovery- Big China % & Backlog
by Robert Maire on 01-30-2024 at 6:00 am

KLAC Foundry Logic

– KLAC reported an OK QTR & flat guide-waiting for 2025 recovery?
– China exposure remains both risk & savior & big in backlog
– Wafer inspect strong- Patterning on long slide- PCB biz for sale
– Some bright spots but memory still weak- Foundry/Logic OK

Bumping along the bottom of the cycle
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LRCX- In line Q4 & flat guide- No recovery yet- China still 40%- Lags Litho

LRCX- In line Q4 & flat guide- No recovery yet- China still 40%- Lags Litho
by Robert Maire on 01-29-2024 at 6:00 am

Lam Research LCRX

– Lam reported as expected and guided flat- No recovery yet
– Some mix shifts but China still 40% (8X US at 5%)-NVM still low
– HBM is promising but Lam needs a broad memory recovery
– Lam has not seen order surge ASML saw- Likely lagging by 3-4 QTRs

An in line quarter and uninspiring flat guide for Q1

As compared… Read More


Micron Ugly Free Fall Continues as Downcycle Shapes Come into Focus

Micron Ugly Free Fall Continues as Downcycle Shapes Come into Focus
by Robert Maire on 12-26-2022 at 6:00 am

Micron Crashing 2022

-Micron off the proverbial cliff and falling faster
-Looking at a much longer/deeper decline in memory
-Layoffs, capex cuts, slowdowns- battening down the hatches
-Micron seems to imply more of a “U” or “L” shaped downcycle

Micron’s numbers as bad as we expected And much worse than most on the

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Micron- “The first cut isn’t the deepest”- Chops production & forecast further

Micron- “The first cut isn’t the deepest”- Chops production & forecast further
by Robert Maire on 11-23-2022 at 6:00 am

Micron SemiWiki 2022

-Micron announces more production cuts & lower forecast
-DRAM will be negative- NAND sounds barely flat (for now)
-Capital spending to be cut to near zero- essential only
-Will the rest of the industry follow suit?

“The first cut isn’t the deepest”
(Apologies to Rod Stewart)

When Micron first announced… Read More


Micron kicks off the down cycle – Chops 2023 capex – Holding inventory off street

Micron kicks off the down cycle – Chops 2023 capex – Holding inventory off street
by Robert Maire on 07-02-2022 at 10:00 am

Stock Crash 2022

-Micron reports weak outlook for fiscal Q4
-2023 capex to be down versus 2022 capex of $12B & Q3’s $2B
-Company keeping inventory off street to support pricing
-Memory is usually the first shoe to drop in a down cycle

Sharp drop in demand at end of Q3…..

Micron reported a sharp drop in demand at the end of its fiscal Q3,… Read More


Flash Memory Summit Conference

Flash Memory Summit Conference
by Admin on 05-26-2022 at 4:26 pm

Why Attend Flash Memory Summit?

FMS is the best networking opportunity in the storage industry!

The 2022 conference is expanding beyond flash memory to address all forms of high performance memory. Summit organizers welcome your submissions on a range of memory technologies including NAND Flash, DRAM, MRAM, ReRAM, and DNA storage.… Read More


AMAT – Supply Constraints continue & Backlog Builds- Almost sold out for 2022

AMAT – Supply Constraints continue & Backlog Builds- Almost sold out for 2022
by Robert Maire on 02-20-2022 at 6:00 am

Applied Materials

-Production constraints push backlog up $1.3B to $8B
-Looks like $100B in WFE 2022 VS $80B in 2021
-Almost sold out for 2022- Could lead to continued growth 2023
-Insp/metrology up 68% Y/Y- Expect steady growth in 2022

Can’t keep up with demand….

Revenue came in at $6.27B and NonGAAP EPS of $1.89. A very slight beat of … Read More


KLAC- Great quarter and year – March Q is turning point of supply chain problem

KLAC- Great quarter and year – March Q is turning point of supply chain problem
by Robert Maire on 01-30-2022 at 10:00 am

KLAC Foundry Logic

-KLAC – great QTR & calendar year but supply chain impacted
-Management feels supply chain to improve after March Q
-Demand remains strong, driven by foundry/logic
-Process management is next best place in industry after litho

Great end to calendar year

KLA reported revenues of $2.53B with non GAAP EPS of $5.59 nicely… Read More


LAM – Surfing the Spending Tsunami in Semiconductors – Trailing Edge Terrific

LAM – Surfing the Spending Tsunami in Semiconductors – Trailing Edge Terrific
by Robert Maire on 08-01-2021 at 6:00 am

Lam Research

-$80B + in WFE with strong back half in 2021
-Trailing edge strength adds to overall great demand
-Supply side headwinds require effort- Malaysia now open
-It just comes down to execution which Lam has done well

Nice beat and sandbagged guide
As Lam has done consistently for many quarters now, they beat numbers with Revenues of $4.15B… Read More