Semiconductors Down in 2nd Half 2022

Semiconductors Down in 2nd Half 2022
by Bill Jewell on 11-20-2022 at 4:00 pm

Top Semiconductor Revenue 2H 2022

The semiconductor market declined 6.3% in 3Q 2022 from 2Q 2022, according to WSTS. Based on the outlook for 4Q 2022, the second half of 2022 will be down over 10% from the first half of 2022. The 2H 2022 decline will be the largest half-year decline since a 21% drop in the first half of 2009 versus the second half of 2008 during the great … Read More


2022 Semiconductor Supercycle and 2023 Crash Scenario

2022 Semiconductor Supercycle and 2023 Crash Scenario
by Daniel Nenni on 08-26-2022 at 6:00 am

2021 Semiconductor Forecast Summary

Charles Shi, semiconductor analyst at Needham & Company, an US-based investment bank and asset management firm, hosted an expert call on semiconductor cycles with Malcolm Penn, Founder and CEO of Future Horizons on 18 August 2022, with over 100 financial analysts in attendance.  The following bulletin is a summary of the… Read More


The Semiconductor Market Downturn Has Started

The Semiconductor Market Downturn Has Started
by Malcolm Penn on 08-07-2022 at 6:00 am

Growth Rate Trends

What we alone said would surely happen, but what was widely denied by the industry, was confirmed with June’s WSTS Blue Book report.  Right on cue with our December 2021 forecast, the current semiconductor Super Cycle is finally drawing to a close and the 17th market downturn has now well and truly started.

The Macro Evidence

At the… Read More


Podcast EP86: Negative Outlook for the Semiconductor Industry with Malcolm Penn

Podcast EP86: Negative Outlook for the Semiconductor Industry with Malcolm Penn
by Daniel Nenni on 06-13-2022 at 10:00 am

Dan is joined by Malcolm Penn, founder and CEO of Future Horizons, a firm that provides industry analysis and consulting services on the global semiconductor industry.

Dan and Malcolm discuss the current and future state of the semiconductor industry. What has driven the cyclic nature of the business and are we doomed to repeat… Read More


Are We Headed for a Semiconductor Crash?

Are We Headed for a Semiconductor Crash?
by Daniel Nenni on 02-02-2022 at 6:00 am

Malcolm Penn Webinar 2022

COVID was certainly a black swan event but semiconductors have seen similar events over the past 50 years, some of which I have experienced personally. The Dot-com bubble comes to mind but there were others. The question is will history repeat itself and the answer, according to Malcolm Penn of Future Horizons, is yes.

Malcolm is… Read More


Podcast EP57: A Perspective of 2021 and 2022 with Malcolm Penn

Podcast EP57: A Perspective of 2021 and 2022 with Malcolm Penn
by Daniel Nenni on 01-14-2022 at 10:00 am

Dan is joined by Malcolm Penn, long-term semiconductor industry veteran and founder of Future Horizons, Dan and Malcolm review their last discussion on 2021 forecasts, which produced aggressive numbers many said were too optimistic. Their predictions turned out to be on the mark.

They also explore the topic of 2022 -what Read More


Podcast EP40: The Semiconductor Supply Chain and the Real Cause of Semiconductor Shortages

Podcast EP40: The Semiconductor Supply Chain and the Real Cause of Semiconductor Shortages
by Daniel Nenni on 10-01-2021 at 10:00 am

Dan and Mike are joined by Malcolm Penn, 50-year semiconductor industry veteran and founder and CEO of Future Horizons. Dan and Mike explore the evolution of the semiconductor supply chain, how we got to the current state of shortages and what the future may hold. Drawing on his substantial knowledge of the industry, Malcolm makes… Read More


The Semiconductor Shortage False Narrative!

The Semiconductor Shortage False Narrative!
by Daniel Nenni on 10-01-2021 at 6:00 am

Port of Oakland

The semiconductor shortage has really caught the world’s attention. Friends and family who don’t really know what a semiconductor is now ask me to explain it. This is great news for the semiconductor industry for different reasons which I will discuss here. We can also discuss the downside risks.

First, let’s look at a bit of semiconductor… Read More


Semiconductors could be up 12% in 2018

Semiconductors could be up 12% in 2018
by Bill Jewell on 03-02-2018 at 12:00 pm

The global semiconductor market grew 21.6% for the year 2017, according to World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS). The market was much stronger than anticipated at the beginning of year. Semiconductor Intelligence tracked publicly available forecasts to determine which was the most accurate. We used forecasts made … Read More


Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future

Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future
by Bill Jewell on 02-20-2013 at 8:01 pm

The above quote is attributed to both physicist Niels Bohr and baseball’s Yogi Berra. The statement certainly applies to predicting the semiconductor market. Semiconductors operate on physical principles. However the market for semiconductors is affected by numerous factors. The outcome of a baseball game can be determinedRead More