The semiconductor market declined 6.3% in 3Q 2022 from 2Q 2022, according to WSTS. Based on the outlook for 4Q 2022, the second half of 2022 will be down over 10% from the first half of 2022. The 2H 2022 decline will be the largest half-year decline since a 21% drop in the first half of 2009 versus the second half of 2008 during the great … Read More
Charles Shi, semiconductor analyst at Needham & Company, an US-based investment bank and asset management firm, hosted an expert call on semiconductor cycles with Malcolm Penn, Founder and CEO of Future Horizons on 18 August 2022, with over 100 financial analysts in attendance. The following bulletin is a summary of the… Read More
What we alone said would surely happen, but what was widely denied by the industry, was confirmed with June’s WSTS Blue Book report. Right on cue with our December 2021 forecast, the current semiconductor Super Cycle is finally drawing to a close and the 17th market downturn has now well and truly started.
The Macro Evidence
At the… Read More
Dan is joined by Malcolm Penn, founder and CEO of Future Horizons, a firm that provides industry analysis and consulting services on the global semiconductor industry.
Dan and Malcolm discuss the current and future state of the semiconductor industry. What has driven the cyclic nature of the business and are we doomed to repeat… Read More
COVID was certainly a black swan event but semiconductors have seen similar events over the past 50 years, some of which I have experienced personally. The Dot-com bubble comes to mind but there were others. The question is will history repeat itself and the answer, according to Malcolm Penn of Future Horizons, is yes.
Malcolm is… Read More
Dan is joined by Malcolm Penn, long-term semiconductor industry veteran and founder of Future Horizons, Dan and Malcolm review their last discussion on 2021 forecasts, which produced aggressive numbers many said were too optimistic. Their predictions turned out to be on the mark.
They also explore the topic of 2022 -what … Read More
Dan and Mike are joined by Malcolm Penn, 50-year semiconductor industry veteran and founder and CEO of Future Horizons. Dan and Mike explore the evolution of the semiconductor supply chain, how we got to the current state of shortages and what the future may hold. Drawing on his substantial knowledge of the industry, Malcolm makes… Read More
The semiconductor shortage has really caught the world’s attention. Friends and family who don’t really know what a semiconductor is now ask me to explain it. This is great news for the semiconductor industry for different reasons which I will discuss here. We can also discuss the downside risks.
First, let’s look at a bit of semiconductor… Read More
The global semiconductor market grew 21.6% for the year 2017, according to World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS). The market was much stronger than anticipated at the beginning of year. Semiconductor Intelligence tracked publicly available forecasts to determine which was the most accurate. We used forecasts made … Read More
The above quote is attributed to both physicist Niels Bohr and baseball’s Yogi Berra. The statement certainly applies to predicting the semiconductor market. Semiconductors operate on physical principles. However the market for semiconductors is affected by numerous factors. The outcome of a baseball game can be determined… Read More
