The Coming China Chipocalypse – Trade Sanctions Backfire – Chips versus Equipment

The Coming China Chipocalypse – Trade Sanctions Backfire – Chips versus Equipment
by Robert Maire on 11-15-2023 at 10:00 am

China Sino US
  • China Chip Sanctions have had opposite of intended effect
  • Helps AMAT, LRCX, KLAC & TEL- Hurts Micron and GloFo
  • Tsunami of Chinese capacity will hurt memory & 2nd tier chip makers
  • The probability of a much longer chip downcycle is increasing
China is cornering the market on Semiconductor equipment

Quarterly reports from… Read More


SPIE- EUV & Photomask conference- Anticipating High NA- Mask Size Matters- China

SPIE- EUV & Photomask conference- Anticipating High NA- Mask Size Matters- China
by Robert Maire on 10-09-2023 at 6:00 am

Conference EUV Lithography

– SPIE EUV & Photomask conference well attended with great talks
– Chip industry focused on next gen High NA EUV & what it impacts
– Do big chips=big masks? Another Actinic tool?
– AI & chip tools, a game changer- China pre-empting more sanctions

The SPIE EUV & Photomask conference in Monterey
Read More

SEMICON West 2023 Summary – No recovery in sight – Next Year?

SEMICON West 2023 Summary – No recovery in sight – Next Year?
by Robert Maire on 07-15-2023 at 6:00 am

Semicon west 2023

-SEMICON well attended but bouncing along the biz bottom
-Recovery seems at least a year away with memory even more
-AI creates hope but not impactful- Disconnect tween stocks & reality
-AMAT me too platform- Back end benefits from chiplets

SEMICON busy but subdued

SEMICON is certainly back to pre-covid levels or perhaps better.… Read More


AMAT- Trailing Edge & China Almost Offset Floundering Foundry & Missing Memory

AMAT- Trailing Edge & China Almost Offset Floundering Foundry & Missing Memory
by Robert Maire on 05-22-2023 at 8:00 am

Amat China

-AMAT reported inline resulted helped by trailing edge & China
-Memory remains at very low levels- Foundry remains uninspiring
-China seems to be buying anything they are allowed to buy
-The recovery is too far out & unknown to handicap

Quarter was OK and Guidance also OK

Revenue was $6.63B and EPS of $1.86 versus reduced… Read More


Report from SPIE- EUV’s next 15 years- AMAT “Sculpta” braggadocio rollout

Report from SPIE- EUV’s next 15 years- AMAT “Sculpta” braggadocio rollout
by Robert Maire on 03-06-2023 at 10:00 am

EUV DUV Lithography

-We attended the SPIE lithography Conference in San Jose
-No significant news or announcements on EUV
-Focus on 500WPM target and High & Hyper NA rollout
-AMAT overblown Sculpta-Not exactly what its cracked up to be

SPIE Lithography 2023

We have been attending SPIE for many years now and are happy to see a return to pre Covid levels… Read More


AMAT- Flat is better than down-Trailing tool strength offsets memory- backlog up

AMAT- Flat is better than down-Trailing tool strength offsets memory- backlog up
by Robert Maire on 02-20-2023 at 10:00 am

AMAT CVD 3

-Strength in trailing tools offsets weak memory resulting in flat
-Order book very volatile but backlog surprisingly still grew
-Trailing edge VS Leading edge = 50/50 – Foundry/logic over 2/3
-Not nearly as bad as Lam but not as good as ASML

AMAT posts good quarter & guide – Flat for three quarters

Applied Materials… Read More


U.S., Japan & Dutch versus China Chips & Memory looks to be in a long downturn

U.S., Japan & Dutch versus China Chips & Memory looks to be in a long downturn
by Robert Maire on 02-01-2023 at 2:00 pm

US Japan China

-US, Japan & Dutch agree to embargo some China chip equip
-Goes beyond just leading edge & will increase negative impact
-China might catch up in decades or invade Taiwan tomorrow
-Why the memory downturn could be longer than expected

Ganging up on China

It appears that the US has put together a coalition of the US, Japan and… Read More


Samsung Ugly as Expected Profits off 69% Winning a Game of CAPEX Chicken

Samsung Ugly as Expected Profits off 69% Winning a Game of CAPEX Chicken
by Robert Maire on 01-09-2023 at 6:00 am

Samsung 2022

-Samsung off the same chip cliff as Micron- “No skid marks”
-Samsung may be winning at a game of “Capex Chicken”
-No expectation of recovery any time soon – Consumers weak
-2023 a write off- Recovery will be delayed if spending isn’t

Samsungs worst quarter in 8 years no surprise

Samsung pre… Read More


AMAT – Backlog buffers downcycle- still fighting shortages – WFE down in 2023

AMAT – Backlog buffers downcycle- still fighting shortages – WFE down in 2023
by Robert Maire on 11-21-2022 at 6:00 am

Applied Materials

-AMAT put up good numbers despite slowing cycle
-Growing backlog will help them manage declining orders
-Parts shortages still haunt but improving for 2-4 more quarters
-2023 will be down- too early to tell how much- 2024 who knows

Good numbers but already adjusted for China

Applied put up revenue of $6.7B and EPS of $2.03 versus … Read More


KLAC- Strong QTR and Guide but Backlog mutes China and Economic Impact

KLAC- Strong QTR and Guide but Backlog mutes China and Economic Impact
by Robert Maire on 10-30-2022 at 5:00 pm

KLA SemiWiki 2022

-KLA great quarter & guide as backlog mutes China/Economy
-Patterning starts to catch up to wafer inspection outperform
-China impact is limited to leading edge & specific customers
-Cuts in memory capex less impactful on KLA

KLAC reports strong quarter and good guide

Revenues were $2.7B with EPS of $7.06 versus street… Read More