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Here is the current situation of the plan for 10nm processors in mobile phone :
Huawei Kirin 970 (10nm TSMC) : initially planned for the phablet Mate 9 ( Nov 3rd 2016), Huawei might use the Kirin 960 instead (16nm) it is released once a year so the Mate 10 might be on the market with the Kirin 970 in November'17.
Apple Ipad pro A10X (10nm TSMC) : current release plan for March'17. plus most likey the Iphone 7S in September'17.
Qualcomm Snapdragon 830 ( 10nm Samsung) : probably integrated first in the Samsung Galaxy S8 for March'17.
Samsung Exynos 8895 ( 10nm Samsung) : in the next Samsung Galaxy S8 for March'17.
Mediatek Helio X30 ( 10nm TSMC) : no customer known ? forecast for July'17.
LG ?? (10nm Intel) : LG mobiles used Qualcomm Snapdragon for the G4,G5 and maybe G6 ( to be release in April'17) resp. 808, 820 and 830(?!) , and the latest phablet ( V20 release in Sep'16) is using Snapdragon 821. LG doesn't design their SoC, but they announced a move to Intel and production in 2017. My bet is for the next V30 for Sep'17 then.
In conclusion, we will see in 2017 the release of 6 flagships in 10nm for mobile application, from 3 different foundries ( well Intel/LG doesn't have any track record) in 8 months timeframe. This is against the claims from TSMC about their advantages in term of schedule.
Looking at it politically:
- It's likely that Apple is substantially bankrolling the rapid TSMC climb through 10nm to 7nm. This in turn means (to me) that they're unlikely to allow a competitor CPU to be released before they make their splash. Couple that to the fact that the Kirin 960 hasn't been used yet (hasn't been officially announced yet!) and everything indicates that the 970 on 10nm will be next year's Mate 10.
- no-one knows the iPad schedule. Apple could be slipping it for dozens of reasons --- maybe they want to shift to a pattern of two big events a year, one in Spring, one in Fall? Maybe they want their annual revenue an manufacturing to be spread more evenly over the year? Maybe they're having more difficulty with the A10X production than expected (or difficulty with some other part, like a large 3D-touch-enabled screen)? So while I'd be that March makes sense, I'd basically not be surprised by anything between late October and May 2017.
- not to beat up on Samsung (god knows they've had plenty of that already) but let's face it, that March '17 ship date may very well slip three months or more. If they have even the SLIGHTEST common sense (which, admittedly, they have not yet shown, in spite of everything that has happened) the S8 will be most aggressively safety tested phone in the history of the universe. They HAVE to take time to do that --- if the S8 is flawed in any way whatsoever, Samsung is dead in this market.
So the way I see it (as I say, based on politics/business) it will be Apple first by three months or so, but in tablets; with others first to phones. (Not that Apple cares; I expect none of those phone contenders will match the A10 before the A11 ships in Sept 2017. And if Apple releases an iPad Pro Mini with an A11X, that's basically the size of the large phablets anyway!)
Looking at it politically:
- not to beat up on Samsung (god knows they've had plenty of that already) but let's face it, that March '17 ship date may very well slip three months or more. If they have even the SLIGHTEST common sense (which, admittedly, they have not yet shown, in spite of everything that has happened) the S8 will be most aggressively safety tested phone in the history of the universe. They HAVE to take time to do that --- if the S8 is flawed in any way whatsoever, Samsung is dead in this market.
I would not mix the Note with the Galaxy series. The S7 was (and is) the best android phone ever. S8 will be announced in February and shipped in March, equipped with 10nm SoC (most likely 2 versions, Snapdragon 830 and Exynos 8895). The S6 was the first phone to equip a 14nm SoC (LPE). I bet that the S8 will be the first phone to sport a 10nm SoC. I would not expect any delay also for the Ipad equipped with the A10X.
It seems like both Samsung and TSMC will debute 10nm around the same time. Samsung has always said that it's 10nm would enter mass production at end of 2016.
I would not mix the Note with the Galaxy series. The S7 was (and is) the best android phone ever. S8 will be announced in February and shipped in March, equipped with 10nm SoC (most likely 2 versions, Snapdragon 830 and Exynos 8895). The S6 was the first phone to equip a 14nm SoC (LPE). I bet that the S8 will be the first phone to sport a 10nm SoC. I would not expect any delay also for the Ipad equipped with the A10X.
Samsung's behavior is starting to border on insanity, and that's simply going to, as I said, increase the scrutiny on every device they release over the next year. They CANNOT afford to have any of them fail. And failure doesn't have to be as spectacular as explosions. If the phone ever overheats, people are going to comment on it. If the phone charges too slowly, people are going to comment on it. If the battery life is bad (because a terrified Samsung went back to absolutely safe batteries from four years ago) people are going to comment on it.
Lke I said, this will not be a standard product launch, and if Samsung treats it as such, they could do themselves real damage. Every journalist in the world, not to mention every comedian, will be watching them 24/7.
Samsung's behavior is starting to border on insanity, and that's simply going to, as I said, increase the scrutiny on every device they release over the next year. They CANNOT afford to have any of them fail. And failure doesn't have to be as spectacular as explosions. If the phone ever overheats, people are going to comment on it. If the phone charges too slowly, people are going to comment on it. If the battery life is bad (because a terrified Samsung went back to absolutely safe batteries from four years ago) people are going to comment on it.
The history can repeat itself and does repeat itself. In the mobile phone history, Motorola, Nokia, and Blackberry all have been the dominant player once.
The history can repeat itself and does repeat itself. In the mobile phone history, Motorola, Nokia, and Blackberry all have been the dominant player once.
Maybe, but these doom scenarios pop up very regurarly, much more than major players actually disappearing. I have seen similar doom scenarios on Apple when they had their foldable iPhones or the bulging camera lens...
Maybe, but these doom scenarios pop up very regurarly, much more than major players actually disappearing. I have seen similar doom scenarios on Apple when they had their foldable iPhones or the bulging camera lens...
There is a difference between what's happening in the real world (as tracked, for example, by genuine dollars) and the idiocy of the 24/7 internet hype machine...
To equate "foldable iPhones" with what has happened to Samsung suggests that you are incapable of, or uninterested in, serious analysis.
Thanks for the compliment. All I am saying is that most likely scenario is that in a few years time the 'exploding batteries' story will be footnote in the history of Samsung visible as a temporal drop in the share price. Despite this battery problem Samsung still predicts to make a profit. They did release a profit warning to announce a reduction of a third of the expected profit; not that they would make a loss.
Thanks for the compliment. All I am saying is that most likely scenario is that in a few years time the 'exploding batteries' story will be footnote in the history of Samsung visible as a temporal drop in the share price. Despite this battery problem Samsung still predicts to make a profit. They did release a profit warning to announce a reduction of a third of the expected profit; not that they would make a loss.
I wonder what Apple would have done in Samsung place. My guess is take a lot longer to admit any issue. I know many people are having 4G issues with the iPhone 7 here in the UK and Apple.just says it is the networks fault. Also denying the iphone 6 touch screen problem.
So, it's now Febuary 2017 and it's looking like we won't see any 10nm products until next quarter.
Firstly, the latest rumors say that the new iPad Pro will not arrive in March: iPad Pro 2: Rumors Suggest Q2/Q3 Release Date, Borderless Screen & Thicker Frame
Also, there have been rumours of yield problems in Samsung's 10nm, which means that Qualcomm will initially only be able to squeeze out enough 835's for the Galaxy S8, which is due to debut in April.
Meanwhile, the Helio X30 is due in 2Q 2017: Report: MediaTek's High-Power Helio X30 To Launch In Q2 2017 | Androidheadlines.com
.. and Huawei Kirin 970 should have already started production this quarter and will probably appear in the Huawei’s Mate 10 in 2nd half of this year.
Well Xiaomi still seems on time and they secure enough snapdragon 835 for their release in march ( Xiaomi Managed to Secure Enough Snapdragon 835 Units for Its Upcoming Mi6 )
on top of this they developped their own processor ( pinecone in 10nm Samsung ) to reduce their dependency on Qualcomm.
would be very interesting to see the first smartphone with a 10nm chip on a market coming from a chinese phone maker using a korean technology
An interesting snippet in a piece on Anandtech about the Mediatek X30
"In a short presentation at its MWC booth Monday, Executive Vice President & Co-COO Jeffrey Ju stated that MediaTek expects only a limited number of phones to use the Helio X30, perhaps less than ten. He also mentioned that a low yield rate for TSMC’s 10nm process has delayed the X30’s availability."
What are people's views on this? Is TSMC having yield problems on 10nm?
considering that the AP for mobile are ramping up the 10nm techno, they HAVE to face yield issue - you need volume to fix yield issues and most likely the first 5 / 10 products start with a low yield with probably some design fixes and OPC changes / process optimization to yield the technology. if not, TSMC engineers are magiciens, considering the complexity of 10nm ( remember most of companies gave up at 28 because they couldnt face the complexity - on top of the cost -)
To Zelaxos
this is what claimed advertised online :
Qualcomm Snapdragon 835 (10nm Samsung) customers:
- Samsung Galaxy S8/S8+ for April'17.
- Xiaomi mi 6 for May(31st)'17
- Sony Xperia XZ premium for May'17
- HTC U11 for June'17 - Microsoft Surface Phone forQ3'17 ++ One Plus 5, ZTE Nubia 217, Nokia 8
Apple Ipad pro A10X (10nm TSMC) : current release plan for 15th'June'17. plus most likey the Iphone 7S in September'17.
Huawei Kirin 970 (10nm TSMC) : initially planned for the phablet Mate 9 ( Nov 3rd 2016), Huawei might use the Kirin 960 instead (16nm) it is released once a year so the Mate 10 might be on the market with the Kirin 970 in November'17.
- LG : the G6 came in march with snapdragon 821, the V30 ( June) expected to come with snapdragron 835 (10nm) and January'18 the G7 is expected with snapdragon 845 !! where is intel technology ?? anymore ?
my observations : still no 10nm on the market from TSMC, hopefully the new Ipad will be released soon. Samsung is now 1 quarter ahead and they are capturing a lot of market share with the snapdragon 835 from Qualcomm. The deal between LG and Intel seems not to produce an application processor before late 2018 if it happens...
