Arm PC market share won't rise above 13% in 2025 says ABI Research

[XYang2023]

"Efficient new x86 chips may have blocked Arm's best route to laptop market growth."

Arm PC market share won't rise above 13% in 2025 says ABI Research

Efficient new x86 chips may have blocked Arm's best route to laptop market growth.

www.tomshardware.com

 

[BruceA]

We will see what the next generation of AMD and Intel mobile bring, but I suspect they got the power and battery focus.

A pivot to ARM would have to be worth more than 10%. Even look at Apple’s clear superiority for multiple years has but made a small dent in MS.

The real issue is that this is a big but not growing business and people upgrade their PCs and laptops what maybe every 4-5 years now.

It becomes for Intel and AMD about how to generate revenue and profits to fund the next big thing or catchup in AI

 

[XYang2023]

I think AI PC is something special, especially with local models.

Intel client products are already transitioning to focus on low power and doubling down on graphics.

 

[Xebec]

I found the premium Windows "ARM" notebook proposition a bit weird. You get some compatibility issues, some driver restrictions, in return for some extra battery life. But Qualcomm started these models at a high price - why not just get a "real" ARM mobile device -- a Macbook . (and LLMs also run really good on M chips due to unified memory..)

 

[XYang2023]

I found the premium Windows "ARM" notebook proposition a bit weird. You get some compatibility issues, some driver restrictions, in return for some extra battery life. But Qualcomm started these models at a high price - why not just get a "real" ARM mobile device -- a Macbook .

Purchasing Qualcomm-based laptops does not make much sense, especially considering the availability of Lunar Lake laptops.

For example, the Lenovo Yoga Slim 7i Aura Edition Gen 9 (Lunar Lake) is currently priced at AUD 2099 (approximately USD 1307.85). Interestingly, it was selling for under AUD 2000 just a week ago.

Lenovo Yoga Slim 7i Aura Edition Gen 9 [83HM0020AU] 15.3" WQXGA+ Touch Core Ultra 7 32GB RAM 1TB Business Laptop - Luna Grey | Centre Com Computers

Discover the Lenovo Yoga Slim 7i Aura Edition Gen 9 laptop, featuring a stunning 15.3" WQXGA+ touch display and powered by the Intel Core Ultra 7 processor. With 32GB RAM and a lightning-fast 1TB M.2 NVMe SSD, experience seamless performance for all your business needs. Pre-installed with...

www.centrecom.com.au

Given the numerous issues that users are likely to encounter with Qualcomm machines, Lunar Lake laptops are a much better choice, particularly for those who initially considered Qualcomm devices.

I'm switching to a long-lasting laptop. Here's why I want Intel inside

The new Arm-based PCs are very capable but the reality of using one right now is that you're going to encounter compatibility problems.

www.pcworld.com

x.com

x.com

 

[blueone]

But but but... Lunar Lake achieves a good portion of the power efficiency by putting DRAM dies in the CPU package. (A la Apple M-series.) Gelsinger said Lunar Lake is a one-off product regarding integrated memory, and the rumor mill says OEMs hate it because of the integrated memory. Even with 18A someday, I'm not sure the Lunar Lake successor can be so impressive in power-efficiency and cost without integrated DRAM.

 

[XYang2023]

But but but... Lunar Lake achieves a good portion of the power efficiency by putting DRAM dies in the CPU package. (A la Apple M-series.) Gelsinger said Lunar Lake is a one-off product regarding integrated memory, and the rumor mill says OEMs hate it because of the integrated memory. Even with 18A someday, I'm not sure the Lunar Lake successor can be so impressive in power-efficiency and cost without integrated DRAM.

I hope they pair Panther Lake with CAMM memory:

Meet LPCAMM2, the fast and efficient new laptop RAM of the future

Eat your heart out 8GB MacBook owners: You can now get your low power RAM and the ability to upgrade it too.

www.pcworld.com

64GB laptop models can be used to run relatively large-sized LLMs.

Regarding Panther Lake:
* The NPU delivers 2x TOPS compared to Lunar Lake.
* Features 12 Xe3 cores versus 8 Xe2 cores.

Lunar Lake laptops are already quite capable for gaming at low power.

For me, when it comes to power considerations:
1. The performance of the machine should remain consistent whether plugged in or running on battery.
2. It should not consume power when closed (very minimum, similar to MacBooks)
3. It should operate quietly when plugged in.
4. It should last more than 12 hours and support fast charging.

I don’t think the MoP matters too much for me personally.

 

[XYang2023]

Intel Slugs AMD, Qualcomm With Core Ultra 200V Chips For Commercial Laptops

At CES 2025, Intel claimed that its new Core Ultra 200V chips for commercial laptops can beat new processors from AMD and Qualcomm on top of revealing four other chip lines for other form factors.

www.crn.com

 

[hist78]

We will see what the next generation of AMD and Intel mobile bring, but I suspect they got the power and battery focus.

A pivot to ARM would have to be worth more than 10%. Even look at Apple’s clear superiority for multiple years has but made a small dent in MS.

The real issue is that this is a big but not growing business and people upgrade their PCs and laptops what maybe every 4-5 years now.

It becomes for Intel and AMD about how to generate revenue and profits to fund the next big thing or catchup in AI

As you mentioned, the PC market hasn’t shown significant growth over the past several years. This makes me question the expectation of substantial PC volume growth due to AI PCs. It didn’t materialize in 2024, and I doubt it will have a significant impact on global PC market growth in 2025.

If AI PCs are critical to corporate business, their adoption might align with multi-year refresh schedules, constrained by yearly budget limits and the limited IT resources needed for deployment. Unless there’s a justification for having two or three PCs per user, most corporate and home environments today tend to replace or refresh one PC per user every few years. While the configurations and features of the PCs they purchase may evolve, the total volume of global PC sales is likely to remain flat.

 

[XYang2023]

As you mentioned, the PC market hasn’t shown significant growth over the past several years. This makes me question the expectation of substantial PC volume growth due to AI PCs. It didn’t materialize in 2024, and I doubt it will have a significant impact on global PC market growth in 2025.

If AI PCs are critical to corporate business, their adoption might align with multi-year refresh schedules, constrained by yearly budget limits and the limited IT resources needed for deployment. Unless there’s a justification for having two or three PCs per user, most corporate and home environments today tend to replace or refresh one PC per user every few years. While the configurations and features of the PCs they purchase may evolve, the total volume of global PC sales is likely to remain flat.

Windows 11, security, edge LLMs

 

[Paul2]

I found the premium Windows "ARM" notebook proposition a bit weird. You get some compatibility issues, some driver restrictions, in return for some extra battery life. But Qualcomm started these models at a high price - why not just get a "real" ARM mobile device -- a Macbook . (and LLMs also run really good on M chips due to unified memory..)

The problem is the lack of both real high end market chips for desktop level performance, and lack of very cheap, Intel Atom level chips.

You can enter the market from the top, or from the bottom, but not from the middle — ancient wisdom

 

[Paul2]

AI PCs are critical to corporate business

From sales data visible to me, and very expensive market research reports, I don't see anyone racing to buy "AI PCs," let alone business buyers. Market-wise, any "ai marketing" is just irrelevant.

I see for example how 3 years old Intel CPU laptops are selling out in low end because Intel has finally decided to push distributors to dump old stock at rock bottom prices.

 

[Paul2]

PC and laptop sales are very very strongly hurt by old stock. Things are not as bad as when Haswell laptops managed to stay in shelves for 5 years, but close to it. Intel might suffer again for trying to hold prices on old dies again.

The thing with the lion share of laptops: they are sold to Asia, and third world countries. USA is 1/4 of the market, but only by volume.

Most of laptops in the world are bought as a personal purchase, overpriced business laptops only sell well the USA, and parts of Western Europe.

Dell, HP, Apple are bad sells in most of Asia outside of mainland China, and they long neglected South Asia. There, Taiwanese brands reign supreme, and contend with Lenovo.

In Asia, buyers look at laptops as people look on desktops on other markets. People are surprised that huge gaming laptops are actually selling so well for non-gaming use.

This is I think the same as why Asia has preference for huge smartphones: many buy 7 inch screen phones as a dedicated video player. It's not because people are that rich, but because they are actually trying to save on buying a separate gadget. In USA many people own digital cameras, in Asia, people would rather put money into a smartphone with ridiculous camera specs with optical zoom, and etc.

 

[Paul2]

ASUS once was very dominant in one surprising niche: huge laptops with Atom CPUs, but they eventually abandoned it on their own, and as Intel's commitment to Atom waned.

Intel probably understood that Atom was cannibalising higher-end CPUs in markets with preference for cheaper CPUs.