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If you believe in Hobbits you can believe in Rapidus

If you believe in Hobbits you can believe in Rapidus
by Robert Maire on 12-20-2024 at 6:00 am

Rapidus Fab Japan

– Semicon Japan super crowded but outlook still uncertain/muted
– Slow analysts finally capitulate on weakening 2025 WFE outlook
– Article confirms our view on chip equip lobbying for China sales
– TSMC continues dominate, China slows, Samsung/Intel weak

Semicon Japan crowded but muted

We attended… Read More


AMAT has OK Qtr but Mixed Outlook Means Weaker 2025 – China & Delays & CHIPS Act?

AMAT has OK Qtr but Mixed Outlook Means Weaker 2025 – China & Delays & CHIPS Act?
by Robert Maire on 11-17-2024 at 8:00 am

Applied Materials

– AMAT has OK QTR but outlook below expectations as 2025 weakens
– Strength in AI cannot offset weakness in the rest of the market
– Increasing headwinds going into 2025 dampen overall outlook
– Weakness combined with regulatory uncertainty reduce valuations

Quarter and year are just OK but outlook is
Read More

More Headwinds – CHIPS Act Chop? – Chip Equip Re-Shore? Orders Canceled & Fab Delay

More Headwinds – CHIPS Act Chop? – Chip Equip Re-Shore? Orders Canceled & Fab Delay
by Robert Maire on 11-15-2024 at 8:00 am

CHIPS Act Semiconductor USA

– CHIPS Act more likely to be maimed & cut than outright killed
– Will Legislators reverse flow of equipment to Reshore from Offshore?
– Recent order cuts, Fab Delay & SMIC comments are all negative
– News flow for semi equipment all bad in front of AMAT

CHIPS Act Chops likely to occur under new administration
Read More

KLAC – OK Qtr/Guide – Slow Growth – 2025 Leading Edge Offset by China – Mask Mash

KLAC – OK Qtr/Guide – Slow Growth – 2025 Leading Edge Offset by China – Mask Mash
by Robert Maire on 11-02-2024 at 8:00 am

KLAC 2024
  • KLA put up an OK Quarter & Guide with modest growth & outlook
  • 2025 remains slow growth as leading edge offset by China slowing
  • China sanctions remain a “great unknown”- impact unclear
  • Reticle biz getting squeezed from both high & low ends
OK quarter with slight beat as always- Guide is OK as well

KLA reported… Read More


LRCX- Coulda been worse but wasn’t so relief rally- Flattish is better than down

LRCX- Coulda been worse but wasn’t so relief rally- Flattish is better than down
by Robert Maire on 10-27-2024 at 8:00 am

Happy Lamb
  • Lam put in good quarter with flattish guide- still a slow recovery
  • This is better than worst case fears of order drop like ASML
  • China spend is slowing but tech spending increase offsets
  • Relief rally as the market was braced for bad news and got OK news
Lam has OK, slightly better than in line quarter with OK guide….

It coulda been… Read More


ASML surprise not a surprise (to us)- Bifurcation- Stocks reset- China headfake

ASML surprise not a surprise (to us)- Bifurcation- Stocks reset- China headfake
by Robert Maire on 10-16-2024 at 10:00 am

ASML 2024 Downturn
  • Investors finally realize the upcycle isn’t as strong as stocks indicated
  • Industry Bifurcation between AI & rest of industry continues
  • China spending risk/overhang finally kicks in
  • AI is super strong, majority of chips remain weak- Invest accordingly
ASML simply states chip industry reality that investors have
Read More

SPIE Monterey- ASML, INTC – High NA Readiness- Bigger Masks/Smaller Features

SPIE Monterey- ASML, INTC – High NA Readiness- Bigger Masks/Smaller Features
by Robert Maire on 10-08-2024 at 6:00 am

Christophe Fouquet SemiWiki

– SPIE Photomask -all about High NA and bigger masks
– High NA will ramp very fast & is ramping fast – two already at Intel
– Doubling size of photomask will offset High NA exposure size problem
– Assembling litho tools at customer saves time/money- “Scanner Kits”

Christophe Fouquet
Read More

Samsung Adds to Bad Semiconductor News

Samsung Adds to Bad Semiconductor News
by Robert Maire on 09-16-2024 at 6:00 am

Samsung Layoffs Intel
  • Samsung follows Intel in staff reductions due to weakness in chips
  • Chip industry split between haves & have nots (AI & rest of chips)
  • Capital spend under pressure – Facing Eventual China issues
  • Stick with monopolies, avoid commodities

Samsung announces layoffs amid weak chip business and outlook
Samsung announced… Read More


AMAT Underwhelms- China & GM & ICAP Headwinds- AI is only Driver- Slow Recovery

AMAT Underwhelms- China & GM & ICAP Headwinds- AI is only Driver- Slow Recovery
by Robert Maire on 08-19-2024 at 6:00 am

One Trick Pony
  • AMAT reports good but underwhelming quarter
  • China slowing creates revenue & GM headwinds- ICAPs weak
  • AI remains the one and only bright spot in both foundry & memory
  • Cyclical recovery remains slow – Single digit Y/Y growth
OK quarter – still slow growing, revs up only 5% Y/Y

AMAT came in at revenues of $6.78B… Read More


LRCX Good but not good enough results, AMAT Epic failure and Slow Steady Recovery

LRCX Good but not good enough results, AMAT Epic failure and Slow Steady Recovery
by Robert Maire on 08-04-2024 at 6:00 am

Chips Act 2024
  • Lam reported good numbers with slightly soft guide
  • Investors are figuring out the up cycle will be slower than thought
  • Looks like AMAT won’t get CHIPS act money for Epic facility
  • Steady improvement but stocks still ahead of themselves-Correction?
Lam reports good numbers (as usual) but guide not good enough

Lam reported… Read More