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Artificial Intelligence (AI) continues to revolutionize industries, from healthcare and finance to automotive and manufacturing. AI applications, such as machine learning, deep learning, and neural networks, rely on vast amounts of data for training, inference, and decision-making processes. As AI algorithms become more sophisticated and datasets grow larger, the demand for computational power and data throughput is escalating rapidly. With the proliferation of data-intensive tasks, AI systems require escalating bandwidth to support seamless communication between diverse components, including CPUs, GPUs, accelerators, memory modules, and specialized modules dedicated to AI tasks. To meet these demands, AI systems require robust connectivity solutions that can provide high bandwidth, low latency, scalability, and energy efficiency.
The Role of UCIe and Chiplet Interfaces
With disaggregation of resources for optimizing system architectures, semiconductor design and package optimizations are the future of advanced compute semiconductors. Chiplet interfaces offer a promising solution to the escalating bandwidth needs in AI systems by providing efficient connectivity between disparate components. For example, chiplet interfaces enable disaggregated architectures with cloud computing infrastructure, where CPU, GPU, and memory chiplets are interconnected via high-speed interfaces, allowing for efficient resource allocation and utilization in AI training and inference tasks. In autonomous vehicles, chiplet interfaces enable seamless integration of AI accelerators, sensor processing units, and communication modules, supporting real-time decision-making and sensor fusion tasks. In healthcare, chiplet interfaces facilitate the integration of AI accelerators with medical imaging devices, enabling faster image processing and analysis for diagnostic purposes.
UCIe, in particular, defines a standardized framework for chiplet-based interconnectivity, enabling seamless integration and communication between chiplets from different vendors.
Benefits of Standardized Interfaces for AI System Connectivity
High Bandwidth: UCIe and chiplet interfaces support high-speed data transfer rates, allowing for rapid exchange of information between chiplets. This high bandwidth is essential for handling large datasets and accelerating AI workloads.
Low Latency: With reduced signal propagation delays and optimized routing algorithms, UCIe and chiplet interfaces minimize latency, ensuring timely processing of data and real-time responsiveness in AI applications.
Scalability: AI systems often require flexible and scalable architectures to accommodate increasing computational demands. UCIe and chiplet interfaces enable modular designs, where chiplets can be added or removed dynamically, allowing for seamless scalability as workload requirements evolve.
Energy Efficiency: UCIe and chiplet interfaces are designed to optimize energy efficiency by minimizing power consumption during data transfer and communication. This is particularly important for AI systems deployed in edge computing and IoT devices with limited power budgets.
Addressing AI System Connectivity Needs
At the IPSoC 2024 conference last month, Sue Hung Fung , Principal Product Line Manager
And Soni Kapoor, Principal Product Marketing Manager, both from Alphawave Semi, presented the company’s offerings addressing these needs.
Alphawave Semi’s Complete UCIe Solution
Leveraging silicon-proven analog IP, the UCIe solution boasts a robust Physical Layer-Electrical PHY (Analog Front End) responsible for ensuring reliable and high-speed data transmission between chiplets. This includes critical functions such as clocking, link training, and sideband signal management, all integrated seamlessly to enable efficient communication across the UCIe interconnect. Additionally, the UCIe solution features a Die-to-Die Adapter component, facilitating link state management and parameter negotiations crucial for chiplet interoperability, while implementing error detection and correction mechanisms to ensure robust data transmission. With support for industry-standard protocols like PCIe and CXL, as well as a Streaming Protocol for enhanced system design flexibility, Alphawave Semi’s UCIe solution offers a comprehensive platform for interoperability testing, ensuring seamless integration into diverse computing systems.
Alphawave Semi’s UCIe Physical Layer (PHY) is designed to accommodate various package types, including standard x16 and x32 configurations commonly found in servers, workstations, and high-performance computing platforms, as well as advanced x32 and x64 packages ideal for data centers and AI accelerators. This support for multiple package types not only ensures seamless integration into existing and future computing systems but also provides system designers with the flexibility to tailor configurations to specific application needs. Leveraging advanced signaling and interface technologies, the UCIe PHY delivers high-speed data transmission and low-latency communication, ensuring optimal performance for demanding workloads.
Summary
As AI computational demands are escalating, chiplets play a crucial role in enabling efficient and scalable solutions. Alphawave Semi’s D2D IP Subsystem Solutions, tailored for chiplet communication, empower AI systems to achieve unprecedented levels of performance and energy efficiency. Alphawave Semi’s comprehensive solutions and chiplet architectures cater to the evolving demands of System-in-Packages (SiPs). In addition to its UCIe interface solutions, Alphawave Semi offers many other high-performance connectivity silicon IP. To learn more, visit the company’s product page.
Cyber attacks are top of mind for just about everyone these days. As massive AI data sets become more prevalent (and more valuable), data security is no longer “nice to have”. Rather, it becomes critical for continued online operation and success. The AI discussion is a double-edged sword as well. While AI enables many new and life-changing capabilities, it has also enabled very sophisticated data breaches. Codasip is presenting a webinar soon that provides a powerful new capability to significantly reduce the data security risks faced by advanced systems. If you worry about these topics, this webinar is a must-see event. A registration link is coming, but first let’s look at what you’ll learn about a technology called CHERI and how it delivers fine-grained memory protection to prevent cyber attacks.
Capability Hardware Enhanced RISC Instructions (CHERI) technology was developed at the University of Cambridge as the result of research aimed at revisiting fundamental design choices in hardware and software to improve system security. CHERI has been covered on SemiWiki previously. You can find several posts on the technology here. The headline news in these posts is that Codasip is the first to deliver a production implementation of CHERI for the RISC-V ISA.
Carl Shaw
The implications of this are significant. The Codasip webinar does a great job explaining the history, details, and capabilities of CHERI. You will learn what this technology can do and how to use it on your next project. There are two webinar presenters who cover a lot of ground in a relatively short amount of time. The entire webinar, including a very informative Q&A session is just over 30 minutes. Here is some background on the presenters:
Carl has over 30 years of experience developing software and securing embedded systems and processors. Carl now works as a Safety & Security Architect at Codasip, where he evaluates leading-edge security and safety technology and leads its adoption and implementation into Codasip’s products.
Andrew Lindsay
Andrew started his 20+ year career in security working on the IP and architectures for complex Pay-TV System-on-Chips. This paved the way to many years of consultancy for semiconductor and product manufacturers. He now also works as a Safety & Security Architect at Codasip, where he looks after the system aspects of security and helps with the ISO 26262 and ISO 21434 certification of products.
Let’s look at the topics these gentlemen cover in the upcoming webinar.
Webinar Details
Here are the main topics covered during the webinar. I’ll provide a taste of what you will learn.
Software Security Vulnerabilities
There is an incredible statistic about the root cause of cyber vulnerabilities. It turns out that for many years, about 70% of the attacks can be traced to exploitation of memory weaknesses. Carl and Andrew dive into this incredible statistic. You will learn a lot about the roots of memory weaknesses and how to address these issues at the architectural level. Some great history is also presented.
What is CHERI?
We already covered what the acronym stands for. CHERI is an extension of a processor ISA that enables robust memory access mechanisms with a software/hardware design paradigm. A core part of the technology is something called capability-based addressing. This approach has been around since the 1960s. What is new is the approach to add capabilities to contemporary ISAs.
A capability is a token or “key” that grants the bearer the authority to access a specific resource or perform a specific operation. The webinar dives into the details of how this security approach can have significant impact.
How Can CHERI be Used?
Several examples are explored in this section that illustrate the application of CHERI to address real-world security challenges. The discussion begins with an illustration of protection of data in a stack. A very interesting discussion on compartmentalization then follows.
Software Impact
Here is where the webinar presenters dig into how CHERI works for real-world problems. It turns out there are no major re-writes required to enhance security with CHERI. Re-compiling the application with a CHERI-enabled compiler will produce a large impact with small effort.
More details of approaches to implement CHERI are also presented, along with a discussion of impact on code size and memory usage. A lot of detail is presented.
Codasip’s CHERI Implementation
In the final segment of the webinar, the history and focus of Codasip is presented, along with significant details about the CHERI-enabled technology available from Codasip. The work the company is doing with many partners across the ecosystem is also explained. The graphic at the top of this post is a depiction of the breadth of this work.
This is followed by an excellent Q&A session that covers many probing and some provocative topics. All-in-all, a great use of a half hour!
To Learn More
You can register for the webinar replay here, don’t miss it! And that’s how CHERI delivers fine-grained memory protection to prevent cyber attacks.
Poised for recovery in 2024 and driving toward a historic $1 trillion in revenue, the global semiconductor industry has an incredibly promising future, backed by an unprecedented number of growth drivers, market opportunities, and technology advancements. Nevertheless, amid record greenfield capital investments and government-backed regional capacity expansion, global semiconductor manufacturing still needs to overcome perennial headwinds over the coming years.
Tracking the exchange of wafer fabs worldwide is an effective way to forecast where the global semiconductor industry is heading. As you can see from the chart below, the past four years have been particularly disruptive with multiple unforeseen world events, causing companies to adapt their long-term manufacturing strategies. This article focuses on what we see as the top three challenges semiconductor manufacturing will face in 2024 – geopolitical uncertainty, technological shifts, and capacity sourcing.
Challenge #1 – Geopolitical uncertainty
The U.S. decision to impose export controls on China’s advanced #chip access in 2022 has shaken up the global semiconductor industry in ways we have not seen since Japan’s market correction in the 90s. Reshoring and de-risking have become common terms, incentivizing the creation of new fabs as a matter of economic and national security, supported by generous government subsidies. Amidst this rapidly changing geopolitical landscape, companies are often caught off guard. We have observed that increased scrutiny over fab ownership has been one of the most prominent themes we have had to navigate in this new geopolitical landscape. In the past couple of years, we are seeing unprecedented government oversight on fabs that is having big impacts, as illustrated by ATREG, Inc.’s recent sales of the Elmos Dortmund, Germany fab to Littelfuse and the Nexperia Newport, UK fab to Vishay, both of which were producing mature 200mm technology.
Challenge #2 – Technological shifts
When it comes to chips, two technology revolutions rise above the rest in their impact on the global semiconductor industry and its future – electric vehicles (EVs) and artificial intelligence (AI). A significant number of chips going into EVs are still mature chips and EVs are driving the motivation to consider internalizing production and buying wafer fabs, particularly at 200mm. AI demands much more advanced chipmaking and this is a driver of significant greenfield investment.
Semiconductor companies that have placed their bets to get ahead of rising EV demand have by association bet on silicon carbide (SiC). Ever since Tesla announced the implementation of SiC into its EVs in 2017, the semiconductor industry has been preparing for the role of compound semiconductors to increase alongside growth in the EV market. Companies are also already making moves to prepare for accelerating galliumnitride (GaN) demand and thinking about where to implement GaN in facilities. Existing silicon fabs can be a great answer to this as they can be more easily converted for GaN production and typically need lower CapEx than converting for SiC.
Challenge #3 – Capacity sourcing
More chips will be needed to meet new demand, but where will they actually come from, and are companies thinking long term enough to avoid short-term intimidation from underutilization among their fabs? In this environment, we see companies exploring a variety of options to secure their future #capacity – greenfield, brownfield, and foundry.
Greenfield is an option, especially with current active government subsidies, but it skews towards larger companies because of the huge investment required to build and operate. According to an article published by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) in September 2023 (Navigating the Costly Economics of Chip Making), a wafer fab completed in 2026 would carry a 10-year total cost of ownership (TCO) of $35 to $43 billion – 33% to 66% higher than today’s costs. Wolfspeed is a company that did it right back in 2019 when it started the construction of its Mohawk Valley greenfield fab to position itself to capture rising SiC demand.
Bosch decided to do it differently by capitalizing on brownfield and acquiring TSI Semiconductors’ Roseville, CA fab. The company will boost the production of 200mm SiC chips on U.S. soil by 2026 with a $1.5 billion #investment in the site. Brownfield fab demand has remained consistent throughout this downturn period. Why? Because brownfield fabs can offer existing infrastructure, equipment, intellectual property (IP), know-how, and an experienced workforce coupled with multi-year supply agreements and accelerated time-to-market. All 200mm fab transactions completed in 2023 reflected transaction values demonstrating the strategic importance of brownfield fabs in prioritizing time-to-market and acquiring know-how.
Foundries remain an important part of the global #semiconductor ecosystem, but there are serious concerns in the market about potential semiconductor factory overcapacity and excess chip inventory in the supply chain. According to DIGITIMES Research, wafer foundry services demand in 2024 is unstable and major wafer foundries have lowered their CapEx to regulate the pace of adding new production capacity. It is estimated that the combined capital expenditure of the top five wafer foundry operators will decrease by about 2% in 2024 down to $55 billion. After years of being at full capacity and having leverage over customers, foundries are responding to a new market where customers have more control. Chip demand may only stabilize in the latter half of 2024.
So what’s next for global semiconductor manufacturing? Amidst these challenges and disruptions, global wafer fab demand will continue to skyrocket, with the majority of transactions at 200mm and mature nodes remaining critical for chip makers. Manufacturing fabs are an incredibly unique asset that countries are prioritizing for national and economic security, and despite large greenfield investments and #incentives being available through global chips acts, brownfield #capacity often remains the preferred choice for chip manufacturers.
Dan is joined by Chet Babla, indie Semiconductor’s Senior Vice President of Strategic Marketing, responsible for expanding the company’s tier 1 and automotive OEM customer base, as well as supporting product roadmap development. Chet has worked in the technology industry for over 25 years in a variety of technical and commercial roles, starting his career as an analog chip designer. He most recently served as Vice President of Arm’s Automotive Line of Business where he led a team focused on delivering the processing technology required for automotive applications including powertrain, digital cockpit, ADAS and autonomous driving. Prior to Arm, Chet has held multiple senior roles in the semiconductor industry and has also advised the UK government on its ICT trade and investment strategy.
Dan explores the impact semiconductors are having on the automotive industry with Chet. Three megatrends are discussed – driver safety and automation, in-cabin user experience, and electrification. Chet describes the significant advances that are being made in all these areas and details some of the innovation Indie Semiconductor is bringing to the market.
Dan also discusses the potential timeline for deployment of fully autonomous vehicles with Chet and the hurdles that must be addressed.
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in these podcasts belong solely to the speaker, and not to the speaker’s employer, organization, committee or any other group or individual.
This article previews Nvidia’s earnings release and will be updated during and after the earnings release. As usual, we will compare and contrast the Nvidia earnings with our supply chain glasses to identify changes and derive insights. Please return to this article, as it will be updated over the next week as we progress with our analysis.
After three insane quarters, Nvidia’s guidance suggests that this quarter will be calmer. I am not sure the stock market can handle growth rates like Nvidia is enjoying once more without going insane. The analysts’ consensus is slightly above Nvidia’s at $24.6B. Our survey shows that the industry expectations are somewhat more optimistic.
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From humble beginnings as a graphics company adored by hardcore gamers only, Nvidia is now the undisputed industry champion and has made the industry famous far beyond us wafer nerds.
When people hear you are in the semiconductor industry, they want to know what you think of Nvidia’s stock price (which is insane but could be even more insane). Obviously, this is driven by the irresistible hunger for AI in the data centre, but this is not our expertise (we recommend Michael Spensers: AI Supremacy for that). We will also refrain from commenting on stock prices and concentrate on the business and supply chain side of the story.
The supply chain has already created a frenzy amongst analysts as TSMC reported April Revenue up almost 60%. Our analysis of the TSMC revenue numbers aligned to an April quarter end shows that the TSMC trend is relatively flat and does not reveal much about Nvidia’s numbers. However, TSMC’s revenue numbers do not have to change much for Nvidia’s numbers to skyrocket. The value is not in the silicon right now as we will be diving into later.
The golden goose
The most important market for Nvidia is the data center and its sky-high demand for AI servers. Over the last couple of years, Nvidia and AMD have been chipping away at Intel’s market share until three quarters ago, when Nvidia’s Datacenter business skyrocketed and sucked all value out of the market for the other players. Last quarter Nvidia capture over 87% of all operating profit in the processing market.
This has faced in particular Intel with a nasty dilemma:
Nvidia has eaten Intel’s lunch.
Intel has recently unveiled a bold and promising strategy, a testament to its resilience and determination. However, this strategy comes with significant financial challenges. As illustrated in the comparison below, Intel has historically been able to fund its approximately $4B/qtr Capex as its Operating profits hovered around $11B. But as the market changed, Intel’s operating profit is now approaching zero while its CapEx spending is increasing as a result of the new strategy of also becoming a foundry ased to the area of $6B$/qtr. The increased spending is now approximately $6M and is not a temporary situation but a reality that will persist
Intel can no longer finance its strategy through retained earnings and must engage with the investor community to obtain financing. Intel is no longer the master of its destiny.
Intel is hit by two trends in the Datacenter market:
The transition from CPU to GPU
The transition from Components to Systems.
Not only did Intel miss the GPU transition business, but it also lost the CPU business because of the system transition. Nvidia GPU systems will use their CPUs, Intel is not invited.
The revolution of the semiconductor supply chain
There are two main reasons the AI revolution is changing the data center part of the supply chain.
One is related to the change from standard packaged DRAM to High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM), and the other is related to new packaging technologies (CoWoS by TSMC). Both are related and caused by the need for bandwidth. As the GPU’s computational power increases, it must have faster memory access to deliver the computational advantage needed. The memory needs to be closer to the GPU and more of it, a lot more.
A simplified view of the relevant packaging technologies can be seen below:
The more traditional packaging method (2D) involves mounting the die on a substrate and connecting the pads with bond wires. 2.3D technology can bring the chips closer by flipping them around and mounting them on an interposer (often Silicon).
The current NVIDIA GPUs are made with 2.5D technology. The GPUs are flanked by stacks of DRAM die controlled by a base Memory Logic Die.
3D technology will bring memory to the top of the GPU and introduce many new problems for intelligent semiconductor people to solve.
This new technology is dramatically changing the supply chain. In the traditional model standard of the rest of the industry, the server card manufacturer procured all components from the suppliers individually.
The competition between the Processing, Memory and the Server companies kept pricing in check for the cloud companies.
Much has become more complex in the new AI server supply chain, as seen below.
The processing company is now in control of the supply chain. With Nvidia’s volumes, supply becomes very important, and as all of the technologies and components are leading-edge, the supply can be unstable. Memory companies need dies from foundries and will negotiate and deliver directly to the processing companies. That Nvidia is in control can be seen in their incredible margins.
This change again makes the Semiconductor supply chain more complex, but complexity is our friend.
What did Nvidia report, and what does it mean?
Nvidia posted $26B$ revenue, significantly above guidance and below the $27.5B we believed was the current capacity limit. It looked like Nvidia could squeeze the suppliers to perform at the maximum.
The result was a new record in the Semiconductor industry. Back in ancient history (last year), only Intel and Samsung could break quarterly records, as can be seen below.
Nvidia also disclosed their networking revenue for the first time, through the earlier calls we had a good idea of the size but now it is confirmed.
As we believe almost all of the networking revenue is in the data center category, we expected it to grow as the processing business but networking revenue was down down just under 5% quarterly suggesting the bill of material is shifting in the AI server products.
Even though the networking revenue was down, the growth from same quarter last year was up, making Nvidia the fastest growing networking company in the industry. More about that later.
The most important market for Nvidia is the data center processing market and its rapid uncontrolled disassembly of the old market structure. From being a wholly owned subsidiary of Intel back in 2019, the painful story unfolds below.
In Q1-2024, Nvidia generated more additional processing revenue in the data center than Intel’s total revenue. From an operating profit perspective, Nvidia had an 87% market share and delivered a new record higher than the combined operating profit in Q1-24.
Although Nvidia reported flat networking revenue, the company’s dominance is spreading to Data center networking. Packaging networking into server systems ensures that the networking components are not up for individual negotiation and hurts Nvidia’s networking competitors. It also provides an extraordinary margin.
We have not yet found out what is behind the drop in networking, but it is likely a configuration change in the server systems or a change in categorization inside Nvidia.
Nvidia declared a 10-1 stock split.
Claus Aasholm @siliconomy Spending my time dissecting the state of the semiconductor industry and the semiconductor supply chain. “Your future might be somebody else’s past.”
Agile Analog is transforming the world of analog IP with Composa™, its innovative, highly configurable, multi-process analog IP technology.Agile Analog has developed a unique way to automatically generate analog IP that meet the customer’s exact specifications, for any foundry and on any process, from legacy nodes right up to the leading edge. The company provides a wide-range of novel analog IP and subsystems for data conversion, power management, IC monitoring, security and always-on IP, with applications including; data centers/HPC, IoT, AI, quantum computing, automotive and aerospace. The digitally wrapped and verified solutions can be seamlessly integrated into any SoC, significantly reducing complexity, time and costs, helping to accelerate innovation in semiconductor design.
Tell us a bit about your background. Why did you decide to become the CEO at Agile Analog in May 2022?
During my 30 years of working in the semiconductor industry, I have held senior leadership, engineering and product management roles at Dialog Semiconductor, Wolfson Microelectronics and Intel. My experience includes the development of custom, mixed-signal silicon solutions for many of the leading consumer electronics companies across the world.
When I was asked to become CEO at Agile Analog I was truly excited by the prospect of helping to drive forward a start-up company with such ground-breaking technology and great potential to change how analog design is performed. Throughout my career I have observed analog design engineers solving complex engineering challenges on a specific process node and then having to start over again when the foundry or process node changes. Traditional analog design can be incredibly difficult and frustrating, so the chance to automate part of the design process to help make chip design less complex, time-consuming and costly is a game-changer for the industry.
How have Agile Analog’s technology and products developed during the last 2 years?
Over the last two years, we have been making significant progress with our internal EDA technology Composa and our product portfolio. The development of analog design automation is complex and we have had many challenges. I am really impressed by the innovative work of our technical team at Agile Analog and I believe we now have a level of design automation (schematic generation, verification and customization) that is unprecedented. I am also really pleased that our range of highly configurable, multi-node analog IP is continuously growing and we have delivered multiple IP products to customers around the globe that are now in silicon. Our products include data conversion, power management, security, IC monitoring, always-on and subsystems IP. Every quarter we are extending this portfolio and every product is process agnostic.
Apart from technology and product developments, what have been the key milestones for the company over the last 2 years?
I would say that there are two company milestones that really stand out. I am very proud that last year we were accepted into the TSMC Open Innovation Platform (OIP) IP Alliance Program and we joined the Intel Foundry IP Alliance Program. These are important achievements that are testament to the high-quality and high-performance of our unique analog IP products. As a result, we are now able to participate in foundry events, such as the TSMC Technology Symposium events and Intel Foundry Direct Connect. It’s an honor to be part of these industry-leading ecosystems. And by collaborating closely with the major foundries, we can help more customers to simplify and speed up their analog IP integration.
How has the company dealt with industry and global challenges during this time?
2023 was a challenging time for the whole of the semiconductor industry due to the impact of global economic uncertainty and geopolitical unrest. Despite this, we took the opportunity to increase focus on developing our Composa technology and we built out our underlying library of sub-blocks required for IP product development. We were very fortunate to have great support from our investors that enabled us to continue driving forward in an extremely difficult period for the industry and the economy in general. The good news is that since the end of 2023 we have seen some positive change across the major semiconductor market segments. And for us, in the analog IP market, there has been a surge in interest, especially for our data conversion and power management IP solutions that are critical for the demanding digital applications of today. There are still some ongoing challenges in the industry, including a shortage of analog engineers, but we are determined to accelerate the development and adoption of our novel analog IP products.
What does the competitive landscape look like and how does your company differentiate?
Looking at the competitive landscape there are certain competitors that excel in specific segments such as clocking, SerDes and standards-based IP. In these areas our competition has clear leadership, so it would be ambitious to try and compete head-on. Many of our competitors are well-established, with excellent IP portfolios. This has been achieved through many years of hard work and successful customer engagements, so they are great role models for us. At Agile Analog, we are differentiating ourselves by offering customization, high-quality, speed of delivery, with the ability to provide our IP products on any process node for any foundry. Currently, we are not focused on standards-based IP that is locked to a specific node. Our focus is on general analog IP that needs to be optimized for each customer. This means that our customers have flexibility to obtain the optimal IP for their specific product. Our main product areas of data conversion, power management and enabling IP are resonating with customers who either have no analog design capability or very limited analog design resource that they need to focus on developing distinct analog functions in their product. In order to be successful within this segment a high level of design automation capability is needed, which we have through our internal Composa technology. Having analog design automation allows us to customize our products and deliver them on any foundry and process – this is what really differentiates us in the market.
What are the company’s main areas of focus for the rest of 2024?
The next 6 months are going to be full-on! We will be continuing to focus on the development of our Composa tool and our IP product roadmap, especially our data conversion, security and power management solutions. To accelerate the growth of Agile Analog we are recruiting new analog engineers, scaling up our customer support team and expanding our sales representation in the USA and APAC. We have some interesting new customer projects underway, with more in the pipeline. And of course, our sales team are out on the road, attending many of the major foundry events, talking with customers and partners about our unique analog IP technology. It’s such an exciting time!
All aspects of semiconductor design and manufacturing require collaboration across a global ecosystem. As complexity increases, so does the importance of good collaboration. This is especially true for advanced package design. Thanks to the movement to multi-die design, package development has become an incredibly difficult task. Navigating the many different materials and topologies required to deliver an optimal package for devices such as CPUs/GPUs/NPUs has evolved into a highly specialized endeavor. This is a story of how one company addresses these needs and who it partners with to get the job done. You will learn a lot about design practices and design technologies as we explore how Sarcina teams with Keysight to deliver advanced packages.
Backdrop For the Story
Founded in 2011 in Palo Alto, CA, Sarcina Technology offers a broad range of package, test, and qualification services. The company created the Application Specific Advanced Packaging, or ASAP category. It provides advanced package design, test, assembly and production management services to a broad range of customers with a noteworthy 100 percent first-time package tape out success track record. You can learn more about Sarcina on SemiWiki here.
As a premier “wafer-in, package-out” service provider, Sarcina incorporates the latest standards for interconnect, such as GDDR6, PCIe Gen 6, and 112 Gbps SerDes. Many of the designs it works on are literal powerhouses, drawing hundreds of watts during peak operation. Packages designed by Sarcina have found their way into diverse applications, ranging from consumer electronics to space travel, like the Falcon 9 mission to the International Space Station in May 2020.
Larry Zu
To be so successful in such a difficult market is a true testament to the team at Sarcina. Larry Zu, the company’s CEO has been there since the beginning, guiding the company to become the sought-after supplier it is today. As I mentioned earlier, this kind of work can’t be done in a vacuum. Collaboration is always required. In the case of Sarcina, Larry recently discussed the particular demands his company faces for simulation and analysis and how Keysight provides the margin of victory for his team.
For those unfamiliar with Keysight Technologies, it is an S&P 500 company that delivers market-leading design, emulation, and test solutions. Its goal is to help engineers develop and deploy faster, with less risk, throughout the entire product life cycle. You can learn more about Keysight EDA on SemiWiki here.
The story is captured in a very informative Case Study. If you want to learn about the complexity of advanced package design and why companies like Sarcina and Keysight should be on your radar, I highly recommend you download your own copy. A link is coming, but first let’s look at the dimensions of the discussion.
Sarcina/Keysight Case Study – An Overview
Accurate signal path analysis becomes a major challenge for advanced package design. Sarcina package design methodology features full channel simulation. The challenge is to enable accurate, fast simulation using real-world models, without slowing down the engineering team.
Standard, SPICE-based tools can fall short. Lack of a good user interface among tools, and the need for a lot of text-based model configuration can slow things down. Sarcina’s engineers wanted a tool that would focus more on the task at hand and maintain model accuracy without getting bogged down in scripting. There is more detail provided in the Case Study, but you get the idea.
By adopting Keysight’s PathWave Advanced Design System (ADS) and Memory Designer, and a multi-model signal path approach, Sarcina was able to create a highly productive end-to-end workflow. The Case Study provides a lot of detail about how this flow effectively addressed the many signal and power integrity challenges faced by the Sarcina team.
The details of how this flow is deployed tell you a lot about what’s required to deliver an advanced package design and why advanced tools and flow are so critical. A couple of quotes from Larry Zu are useful here:
“You know, at 54 Gbps data rate and with bi-directional simulation, we can validate not only the silicon but also the package and the PCB.”
“Based on the scale of our simulations, getting convergence can be a big challenge. We’re not just simulating a few components. We’re dealing with hundreds of components, so the accuracy, and resolving SPICE convergence issues are very important.”
Many results are provided to illustrate the accuracy Sarcina engineers achieved with the Keysight flow. One example is a high-speed NPU. Sarcina created an advanced package design that utilized 6400 MT/s LPDDR5 memory. Configuring the package layer stack, power and ground references, and routing according to the electrical requirements enabled Sarcina to create a first-time success with a very demanding signaling scheme in a fraction of the time it would take using other tools.
The graphic at the top of this post is that package substrate design. You will see the details in the Case Study, but one more quote from Larry is useful:
“We did a measurement with Keysight test equipment. We captured an eye diagram from the measured computer screen and compared it against the simulation result. We positioned them one on top of each other and they were practically identical.”
To Learn More
If you want to learn about the right tools, techniques, and partners to address the demands of advanced package design, I highly recommend this Case Study. You can download your copy here. The Case Study also provides many useful links to learn about Sarcina and Keysight. And that’s how Sarcina teams with Keysight to deliver advanced packages.
Twenty-five years ago, SEMATECH first alerted the world to a concern known as the design productivity gap: the observation that the ability to manufacture complex chips had started outpacing the capability of designers to create them by more than a factor of two. This concern was subsequently reiterated in the ITRS report of 1999 and discussed and reported on in many articles during the past two decades (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Design Productivity Gap
In recent years, generative AI in general and natural language processing more specifically have taken the world by storm, opening-up a wealth of possible applications, including chip design.
But will it be enough to finally start closing the productivity gap, where continuous improvements in EDA and the application of IP-reuse have done nothing more than decelerate its growth somewhat? This article presents a comprehensive overview, showing that generative AI will indeed finally close the design productivity gap and even enable us to fully automate hardware design.
Generative AI Applications in Chip Design
A first reason why generative AI helps close the productivity gap is thanks to the breadth of applications where it can be applied. This is illustrated here by distinguishing between three main categories of value-add, each with a multitude of possible applications (Figure 2).
A first category of applications relates to applying a Large Language Model (LLM) for the purpose of creation and innovation. We can deploy the creative aspects of the LLM to automatically generate, for example, architectural specifications, Verilog or VHDL code, a design with integrated IP, a verification test plan with testbench and test-cases or a configuration file for synthesis.
A second category of applications leverages the LLMs ability to help extract knowledge from information. When presented with, for example, a specification, HDL code or any kind of associated documentation, the LLM can be queried for insights giving designers the knowledge needed to determine next steps. This ability can be further enhanced thanks to a technique called RAG (Retrieval Augmented Generation) whereby the LLM is paired with a knowledge base with information it can leverage to generate its response.
A third category of applications relates to applying the LLM in boring, mundane and repetitive tasks which have proven to be very hard to automate before. Examples in this category are generating product documentation, adding comments to code, periodically reporting status and the analysis of large tool-generated log-files.
Figure 2: Example Application Areas in Chip Design
Design Intent Abstraction
Another arrow in the quiver of generative AI is that it enables us to move up to the next abstraction level as we design our chips. Where we progressed from mostly using transistor models in the 70s to logic gates in the 80s, synthesizable RTL in the 90s, design-IP in the 2000s and system design languages and TLM (Transaction Level Modeling) techniques in the 2010s, we have now started using natural language as the main language to specify our design and verification intent (Figure 3).
Note that this will not replace underlying languages like Verilog and SystemVerilog. Rather, it will become a shell around them as we can now translate a design intent expressed in natural language directly to HDL-code thus saving significant coding time and effort.
Figure 3: Design Intent Abstraction over Time
AI Agents
Although the ability to express the design intent in natural language has provided a big step forward, we are still at the humble beginnings of what the new generative AI technology has to offer. This is illustrated in Figure 4 which shows layers of technology being added to the basic conversational abilities as offered by an off-the-shelf LLM thereby transforming it into a chip design AI agent.
Using natural language as its main input and output, the agent assists with all aspects of the design creation process by combining its trained knowledge with an external knowledge base containing prior designs, IP, and associated documentation. In addition, it can call underlying EDA tools and analyze the results. It can continuously monitor the design repository for changes, enabling it to autonomously take actions, and ultimately will be able to adapt its behavior based on learnings from the past.
Figure 4: Evolving AI Agent Technology
Shown clockwise: (1) general conversational abilities of the AI agent are enabled by a baseline LLM; (2) the LLM is trained and fine-tuned to excel at specific applications like chip design; (3) the LLM is augmented with a (RAG: Retrieval Augmented Generation) knowledge-base containing for example prior designs, design-IP and relevant documentation; (4) the AI agent is equipped with the ability to call and interact with underlying EDA tools, as well as to call other agents in a multi-agent workflow; (5) the AI agent is deployed in an always-on, multi-tasking, operating-system like system enabling it to monitor it’s environment and to autonomously deploy initiatives; (6) the AI agent is equipped with memory enabling it to remember, learn and ultimately adapt its future behavior based on user instructions and learning from the past.
Human Involvement in Iterative Tasks
To explain why current “traditional” EDA tools have not been able to start closing the design productivity gap and how generative AI can help, we need to look at the nature of the steps needed to complete a given task. As most tasks are iterative by nature, we model the task using the well-documented Plan-Do-Check-Act (PDCA) cycle (Figure 5).
Looking at traditional EDA tools these generally do a good job at the Do-step but most often fall short at the Plan-step. An example is the design verification task where EDA tools help run simulations (Do) to detect bugs (Check). However, writing the test-plan and test-benches (Plan) and fixing any bugs found (Act) is left to the design verification engineer. This signals a need for a “human-in-the-loop” preventing us from being able to fully automate the task.
AI agents on the other hand, can help with the Plan-step. Thanks to their transformative nature, they are well suited to translate the task requirements into an executable process. For example, for the above design verification task the AI agent can transform the requirements into a test-plan with associated testbench and test-cases. It can also interpret any bug reports and automatically correct the issue (Check and Act). It can even look at code coverage reports and automatically add more test cases to automatically improve the quality of the verification regression test suite.
It is evident that traditional EDA and generative AI agents complement each other very well, in many cases enabling us to eliminate the need for human involvement when iterating over a task’s PDCA-cycle to get the best results.
Figure 5: Eliminating the Human-in-the-Loop Need in Intra-Task Iterations
PDCA: PLAN: Establish objectives and a process needed to meet them; DO: Execute plan; CHECK: Compare results against objectives; ACT: If needed, adjust the plan and reiterate.
Inter-Task Dependencies
Although individual AI agents enable us to eliminate the human-in-the-loop for many individual tasks, the overall task of designing a chip is much more complex. To fully automate chip design, we need to deal with many inter dependent tasks where we often need to redo a task based on the outcome of a task later in the flow. For example, as the layout is already in progress, a back-annotated static timing analysis run may report that timing cannot be met requiring an adjustment of the synthesis configuration, or even the RTL code to address the issue (Figure 6).
Such inter-task reiterations can generally be addressed using generative AI as well. By having an AI agent interpret the outcome (log file) from a Do-step in the PDCA cycle (Figure 5), it can decide on what to do in the Act-step. This can involve iterating over the same task, redoing an earlier task in the flow, or proceeding with the next task in the flow.
Figure 6: Automating Inter-Task Re-Iterations
Multi-Agent Workflows
To manage complex tasks, our industry is used to taking a divide-and-conquer like approach by splitting up the task into subtasks. For chip design, subtasks include architectural specification, RTL-coding, design-verification, synthesis, physical layout & verification, power & signal integrity analysis, packaging, manufacturing & test and silicon validation. Splitting up the bigger task also enables a separation of concerns as each subtask has become its own discipline, with domain experts being assigned to each phase in the overall flow.
Looking at the evolution of an AI agent as described earlier (Figure 4) we can apply the same approach by creating specialized AI agents that are experts at executing given tasks. These expert AI agents can now be deployed in a multi-agent workflow where the agents are organized to together execute a higher-level task. As the higher-level task itself can be a sub-task of an even higher-level task, we can compose a hierarchy of workflows, each executed by one or more AI agents each with a different area of expertise.
The example in Figure 7 illustrates this concept. Here, Task Dispatcher is instructed to create Verilog RTL alongside a testbench with a code overage target. Task Dispatcher interprets the request and concludes through LLM autocompletion that it first needs to prompt RTL Designer to create and check-in a first version of the RTL-code. When RTL Designer reports back it has finished this task, Task Dispatcher subsequently passes the specification and design interface description to Testbench Coder to create the verification testbench. Once this is done, Task Dispatcher runs executable “regress.exe” and analyses the results. If a bug is found in the code, it prompts RTL Designer to fix it. If the code coverage is below the target, it prompts Testbench Coder to add more tests. If the code is bug-free and the code coverage meets the target Task Dispatcher reports back that the task is complete.
Conclusion – Fully Automated Chip Design
The advent of generative AI is revolutionizing chip design. Not only does it enable us to specify our design and verification intent using natural language, but it can also be applied in many different tasks including some that were very difficult to automate before like documentation, commenting code and helpdesk support.
Moreover, thanks to the fact that generative AI and traditional EDA complement each other very well, we can eliminate the human-in-the-loop need in many iterative tasks. By organizing specialized AI agents into multi-agent workflows we can automatically manage the overall complex system of task inter-dependencies, thereby enabling us to fully automate the entire chip design process.
PrimisAI is the premier destination for cutting-edge hardware design automation, offering engineers the ultimate generative AI companion with advanced Language-to-Code and Language-to-Verification capabilities. Our interactive AI assistant called RapidGPT swiftly addresses complex hardware challenges across the entire design stack, from concept to Bitstream/GDSII. With on-premise deployment and an easily extendable knowledge base tailored to client-specific IPs, PrimisAI ensures an unparalleled hardware design experience.
The global semiconductor market in 1Q 2024 was $137.7 billion, according to WSTS. 1Q 2024 was down 5.7% from 4Q 2023 and up 15.2% from a year ago. The first quarter of the year is typically down seasonally from the fourth quarter of the prior year. However, the 1Q 2024 decline of 5.7% was worse than expected.
Major semiconductor companies had mixed results for 1Q 2024. The revenue change from 4Q 2023 to 1Q 2024 ranged from a 23% increase reported by Micron Technology to a 19% decline from STMicroelectronics. Five companies had quarter-to-quarter revenue growth while nine companies had decreases. Nvidia continued as the largest semiconductor company with $26 billion in revenue. The combined revenue growth of the top companies was 2%, with memory companies up 12% and non-memory companies down 2%.
Companies provided varied revenue guidance for 2Q 2024. Micron is projecting continued strong memory demand, with 2Q 2024 revenues expected to grow 13% from 1Q 2024. Seven other companies are anticipating revenue increases in 2Q 2024. Artificial Intelligence (AI) was cited as a major growth driver by Nvidia, Samsung, and SK Hynix. NXP Semiconductors expects 2Q 2024 to be flat with 1Q 2024. Three companies are expecting declines. Qualcomm and MediaTek see seasonal drops in smartphones. STMicroelectronics’ revenue guidance is the lowest with a 7.6% decline due to excess inventory in the industrial sector. The combined 2Q 2024 outlook for the twelve companies providing guidance is 3% growth.
Recent estimates for the growth rate of the year 2024 semiconductor market have a wide range from 4.9% to 28%. However, forecasts made since the WSTS first quarter data was released in early May differ significantly from earlier forecasts. Projections released in February and March range from 17% from DigiTimes to 28% from UBS. Based on the 1Q 2024 WSTS data, Future Horizons lowered their 2024 projection from 16% in January to 4.9% in May. Other May forecasts are 10% from the Cowan LRA Model and 12% from TECHCET. We at Semiconductor Intelligence (SC-IQ) have lowered our 2024 projected growth from 18% in February to 11% in May.
Our April 2024 newsletter Electronics Turns Positive stated 2024 should show solid but not exceptional growth in the key end markets of PCs and smartphones. Some markets which showed growth in the last couple of years – such as automotive and industrial – appear to be weakening. AI is an emerging growth driver. The global economy is expected to show steady growth of 3.2% for the next two years, according to the IMF. These factors should support healthy semiconductor market growth in 2024 and into 2025. However, earlier projections of growth of 20% or higher in 2024 are not likely to prove true.
Semiconductor Intelligence is a consulting firm providing market analysis, market insights and company analysis for anyone involved in the semiconductor industry – manufacturers, designers, foundries, suppliers, users or investors. Please contact me if you would like further information.
Bill Jewell
Semiconductor Intelligence, LLC
billjewell@sc-iq.com
Git is a version control system that saves every change made to files. It offers powerful tools for managing these changes. This makes Git ideal for software development, as it lets you keep all project files in one place.
Software has grown in complexity, necessitating more collaboration among engineers across various time zones. Software tools advanced to handle the increased number of iterations, files, and data. Initially, tools like RCS and SCCS could only manage file revisions, not entire software projects. CVS is a version control system that allows multiple developers to work on a project simultaneously while keeping the project consistent. As development spread across various geographies and functional teams, systems like ClearCase, Perforce, and SVN became essential for managing the process. Eventually, Git and Mercurial emerged to support the distributed development of extensive open-source projects effectively.
Git has become the go-to solution for tracking changes and managing software development flows. However, it is worth exploring whether Git is the best choice for projects beyond software development, such as semiconductor chip design. This blog post examines whether Git can effectively manage workflows in different fields.
How is semiconductor design different?
Like software development flows, IC design involves an extensive collection of files. A team of engineers goes through numerous revisions during the product’s development, debugging, and enhancement stages. Naturally, they must distribute their updates efficiently and precisely among the team. As the project progresses, managing the data becomes more complex as teams seek to find the optimal configurations of IC schematics, layouts, and semiconductor Intellectual Property (IP Cores). Also, managing associated simulation and analysis data and meta-data is an additional challenge in hardware design flows.
In addition to the fundamental similarities, there are also several notable differences.
Digital designs are commonly crafted using Verilog text files and edited with text editors. However, analog and mixed-signal (AMS) designs and packaging designs are created as binary files or groups of binary and text files to represent design objects such as schematics and layouts using specialized graphical editors.
A software workflow is characterized by a cyclical process of editing, compiling, and debugging. In contrast, the workflow for semiconductor design is significantly more nuanced, involving various editors in creating the components.
Various steps are required to complete the design, such as synthesis, place and route, different types of simulations, formal verification, timing analysis, etc. These tools and flows necessitate the collaboration of engineers with diverse specializations to generate binary files, which may require version management.
Specific components, often called Intellectual Property (IP) blocks, might be repurposed entirely or partially. These IPs are frequently acquired from external suppliers and might come with limitations regarding the editing permissions within the more extensive system.
Git serves as a robust platform for overseeing software development processes. Individual engineers focus on creating new features or resolving problems. The platform’s proficiency in integrating modifications into text files facilitates highly effective collaborative development, particularly within open-source initiatives.
Nonetheless, it must address the specific needs of semiconductor development, especially within a company. We’ll investigate these needs and the areas where Git might not measure up.
In IC design, several large files, ranging from a few MBs to several GBs, are expected. The operational framework of Git, which involves users cloning the repository, results in each user duplicating all the repository files and their numerous revisions. This practice can incur significant expenses in a corporate setting where the bulk of design data resides on costly, high-reliability network storage systems.
In the realm of IC design, particularly within analog and custom domains, the creation of binary files is a standard practice. Due to the non-automatable nature of combining schematics and layouts, utilizing a centralized repository equipped with editing restrictions is the optimal strategy to circumvent the intricacies and potential errors associated with manual merging.
Designing involves teamwork among various engineers, including design, verification, and layout engineers. They need to work together and share frequent updates. A central repository model allows frequent updates and better collaboration than a distributed repository model, as engineers can track each other’s work and stay updated on changes.
Design teams work from different locations. For example, design engineers might be in one country, while layout engineers might be in another. They need to coordinate their work regularly. Technology such as cache servers helps them do this effectively, considering the large volume of design data that needs to be shared.
Design objects are typically grouped sets of files treated as a single entity rather than just a set of files. Access restrictions are essential because engineers have specific roles, like preventing a layout engineer from changing a schematic by mistake. Also, it’s crucial to restrict contractors from sensitive materials. Centralized management of project data is necessary to maintain these access controls.
Although data might be organized in a simple flat directory system, IC design usually follows a structured hierarchy of blocks, where each tier incorporates a block from the below level. An IC designer requires a configuration management system to retrieve and manipulate the design hierarchy.
Consider how difficult it would be for software developers if they couldn’t compare different versions of files to see the changes. It would be a huge task to check for updates or track down the source of a new error. Similarly, circuit designers and layout engineers should have access to tools to spot differences in schematics or layouts between versions.
Indeed, the engineers’ design tools must incorporate revision control and configuration management functionalities. This is not only a matter of convenience; the design tools must also know the configuration management system to ensure that adds, deletes, and changes are correctly recorded and represented in the tools.
The temptation is to look for existing tools and shoehorn them to meet similar needs in a different domain. Git and other software configuration management (SCM) tools, as the name suggests, were developed by software engineers to meet the needs of software engineers. Each domain may have some unique requirements that differ from those of software development. It makes sense to explore your development tools and methodology requirements before adopting a configuration management system you will work with for many years.