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As SemiWiki celebrates our 14th anniversary I wanted to wish you all a happy New Year! Working in the semiconductor industry for the past 40 years has been rewarding beyond belief. Working in the trenches and traveling the world has been an education in itself, more so than any other career that I could imagine. SemiWiki has broadened… Read More
- Consumer memory slowing more than AI gaining causing weakness
- HBM sold out for 2025- HBM is most of Capex- NAND near zero
- Big miss on Q1 guide crushes stock on disappointment
- Positive for Nvidia- Negative for Broadcom/Qualcomm
Micron – AI is wonderful & growing out of bounds while consumer sucks
Micron reported in line… Read More
– Semicon Japan super crowded but outlook still uncertain/muted
– Slow analysts finally capitulate on weakening 2025 WFE outlook
– Article confirms our view on chip equip lobbying for China sales
– TSMC continues dominate, China slows, Samsung/Intel weak
Semicon Japan crowded but muted
We attended… Read More
– CHIPS Act more likely to be maimed & cut than outright killed
– Will Legislators reverse flow of equipment to Reshore from Offshore?
– Recent order cuts, Fab Delay & SMIC comments are all negative
– News flow for semi equipment all bad in front of AMAT
CHIPS Act Chops likely to occur under new administration
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- KLA put up an OK Quarter & Guide with modest growth & outlook
- 2025 remains slow growth as leading edge offset by China slowing
- China sanctions remain a “great unknown”- impact unclear
- Reticle biz getting squeezed from both high & low ends
OK quarter with slight beat as always- Guide is OK as well
KLA reported… Read More
- Investors finally realize the upcycle isn’t as strong as stocks indicated
- Industry Bifurcation between AI & rest of industry continues
- China spending risk/overhang finally kicks in
- AI is super strong, majority of chips remain weak- Invest accordingly
ASML simply states chip industry reality that investors have
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- Samsung follows Intel in staff reductions due to weakness in chips
- Chip industry split between haves & have nots (AI & rest of chips)
- Capital spend under pressure – Facing Eventual China issues
- Stick with monopolies, avoid commodities
Samsung announces layoffs amid weak chip business and outlook
Samsung announced… Read More
- AMAT reports good but underwhelming quarter
- China slowing creates revenue & GM headwinds- ICAPs weak
- AI remains the one and only bright spot in both foundry & memory
- Cyclical recovery remains slow – Single digit Y/Y growth
OK quarter – still slow growing, revs up only 5% Y/Y
AMAT came in at revenues of $6.78B… Read More
- The chip industry got a double tap of both China & Taiwan concerns
- Bloomberg reported the potential for draconian China chip restrictions
- Trump threw Taiwan under the bus demanding “protection money”
- Over-inflated chip stocks had a “rapid unscheduled disassembly”
US looking to further restrict
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– Lam reports another flat quarter & guide- No recovery in sight yet
– Seems like no expectation of recovery until 2025- Mixed results
– DRAM good- NAND weak- Foundry/Logic mixed-Mature weakening
– Clearly disappointing to investors & stock hoping for a chip recovery
Another Flat Quarter &
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